Damien Kayat previews selected women's third round fixtures featuring Ons Jabeur vs Gabrine Mugurze and Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys.
2021 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Tennis Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
Selected 3rd Round Matches- 2nd June
Ons Jabeur 5/4 | Garbine Muguruza 6/10
Two-time Grand Slam Champion and former World Number One Garbine Muguruza is always a difficult player to predict. There always seems to be a 50/50 chance of either a first-round defeat or a deep run. The mercurial Spaniard is naturally aggressive and likes to take the match to her opponents. That’s probably why she has succeeded here before. The 2017 Champion is also a previous runner-up. But she has failed to progress beyond the 2nd round here since winning the title in 2017. But she has slowly started to regain consistency under the guidance of Conchita Martinez. The two reunited in 2019 and she reached yet another Grand Slam final at last year’s Aussie Open. She also started 2021 in glorious fashion, reaching the final of the Yarra Valley Classic before a terrific ‘Middle East’ swing. She reached the final in Doha and won the title in Dubai. She has taken advantage of a favourable draw and barely broken a sweat this week. She will now need to turn up the heat against an opponent in terrific form.
26-year-old Tunisian Ons Jabeur is perhaps the most low-key of the in-form players coming into this year’s Wimbledon Championships. She has certainly proved that her quarterfinal run at last year’s Aussie Open wasn’t a fluke. Since April she has been formidable. She reached the semi-finals in Charleston before a run to the final of the MUSC Health Women’s Open. She then went on to a highly creditable 4th round run at Roland Garros. She then topped it all off with her first WTA title at the Birmingham Classic. She seems to have worked on getting slightly more power in her game over the past few months. She is perhaps one of the best exponents of slice and drop shots in the current game. She is yet to drop a set and she just unceremoniously dispatched Venus Williams.
Muguruza to win at 6/10
Muguruza leads the head-to-head 1-0, with a hard-fought three-set victory in Hobart last year. Jabeur is the one screaming value at this point, especially after that win in Birmingham. But something inside of me is edging towards the Spaniard. The craziness of the current draw could present her with a golden opportunity to win her 3rd Slam.
Elise Mertens 91/100 | Madison Keys 87/100
World Number 16 Elise Mertens has proven herself to be an amazingly dexterous player over the past few years. But her grass-court preparation leading into this year’s Wimbledon was awful (she lost her opening round matches in Birmingham and Eastbourne). The Belgian has six WTA titles to her name following her victory at the Gippsland Trophy earlier this year. The former Aussie Open semi-finalist has reached the quarterfinal stage of the US Open for the past two years. So, she has shown some Grand Slam capabilities before. She also reached the 4th round here in her last appearance in 2019. She has actually stated that her favourite surface is grass despite her significant success on hard courts. Her flatter groundstrokes should make her ideally suited to succeed on this surface.
26-year-old American Madison Keys had fairly decent grass-court preparation this year, reaching the quarterfinals in Berlin. That included a victory over top seed Aryna Sabalenka. Madison Keys has proven herself to be a perennial threat in Grand Slam tennis. In fact, Wimbledon is the only Slam in which she hasn’t progressed beyond the quarterfinal stage. She did reach the quarterfinal stage back in 2015. But that is not to say that she doesn’t possess significant grass-court chops. Her first two career titles came on grass. She won the Eastbourne International prior to winning the Birmingham title. There’s little mystery to this. She possesses a huge serve and massive forehand. She has been recorded hitting groundstrokes with the same (if not more) power as some of her male counterparts. But she does turn into an error machine when the tide turns against her. Mertens is an intelligent player who will look to exploit that exuberance.
Keys to win at 87/100
Madison Keys has won both of their matches. Curiously, both of those matches came on the Grand Slam stage. This will be their first-ever meeting on grass-courts. This is an extremely tough one to call. I’m prevaricating a bit. But ultimately, I’m going to side with the American. She just needs to serve at 70% and I think she will proceed. That Grand Slam mentality is something that should overcome Mertens’ consistency.
