Wimbledon has roared back from its one-year Covid hiatus, with both draws offering a plethora of thrills and spills. Ashleigh Barty has gleefully accepted this golden opportunity to cement her World Number 1 status. Meanwhile, former World Number 1 Karolina Pliskova has defied expectations to reach her second Grand Slam title. Who will emerge victorious on Saturday?
2021 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Tennis Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
Ladies Final- 10th July
Ashleigh Barty 38/100
Ashleigh Barty the first Australian woman finalist here since her idol Evonne Goolagong Cawley won her second title in 1980. Clearly, the Cawley connection has special significance for fellow indigenous Australian Barty (she is aiming to win the title on the 50th anniversary of Cawley’s first triumph). Barty has enjoyed a terrific year after essentially missing the entire 2020 campaign due to Covid concerns. She has won three titles in 2021, including her 2nd Miami Open crown. But she has underwhelmed on the Grand Slam stage since winning that 2019 French Open crown. There was actually some doubt as to whether she would play this year following her 2nd round withdrawal at Roland Garros. But she has looked supreme this year, storming past her previous best 4th round Wimbledon performance.
She has looked close to unbeatable since dropping the 2nd set in her opening match against Suarez Navarro (she hasn’t dropped a set since). Barty was positively brilliant against grass-court aficionado Angelique Kerber. I expected a straight sets victory but was surprised at just how good she looked. Kerber played very well, actually leading 4-1 in the 2nd set. But the Aussie always seemed to have an extra gear in the crunch moments. She twice rattled off ten consecutive points in the match. She fired down 8 aces whilst compiling 38 winners. All that over the space of just two sets. Her movement has been exceptional, allowing her to constantly threaten her opponent’s service games. This could prove crucial against Pliskova’s sledgehammer serve.
Karolina Pliskova 2/1
29-year-old Karolina Pliskova is a former World Number One with 16 WTA titles to her name. But the former US Open finalist has always had a reputation for being slightly vulnerable on the Grand Slam stage. She hasn’t made it past the 4th round of a Grand Slam tournament in her last eight attempts. Her movement starts to crumble in key matches and she becomes overly dependent on her serve to compensate. Pliskova has also been in deteriorating form for some time. She seemed to have found some answers in Rome, battling her way into the final. But that glimmer of hope was soon transformed into nightmare fuel. She was annihilated by Iga Swiatek in the shortest completed final since Istanbul in 2009. She then went out in the 2nd round of the French before consecutive first-round defeats on grass.
What could have possibly precipitated such a dramatic change? It’s really surreal. Pliskova has never made it past the 4th round here before despite possessing a strong career record on grass-courts. Now she is in her 2nd career Grand Slam final, dropping only one set along the way. That semi-final performance against Sabalenka was critical. The 2nd seeded Belarusian won the first set and looked set to end Pliskova’s dream run. But the Czech star produced perhaps the best two sets of her tennis career to claim the victory. Only two women had reached the final after going a set down in the last 33 Wimbledon semi-finals. You can’t underestimate how huge this was for Pliskova. This one performance could help eradicate those feelings of inferiority that creep in on the Grand Slam stage. The key to her has been her serve. She has served brilliantly in the critical moments and her movement has certainly improved.
Verdict: Barty to win in straight sets at 94/100
Barty leads the head-to-head 5-2, winning their last three matches. Pliskova did win their last grass-court match, but that was five years ago now. I think there is a tendency by the media to be slightly reactive. Many are tipping Pliskova to triumph based on the Sabalenka comeback. But I think that Barty is almost the worst opponent for Pliskova. Pliskova has traditionally battled against crafty players with counterpunching abilities. Barty isn’t going to get sucked into a bludgeoning match. She will look to create angles and truly test Pliskova’s mobility. Barty to win in straight sets at 94/100.
