Damien Kayat takes an in-depth look at the women's draw of Wimbledon 2021.
2021 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Championships Preview
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, London, England
June 28th-July 11th
It amuses me to contrast the chaotic unpredictability of the WTA Tour with the rigid formality of the ATP Tour. The French Open was just a perfect distillation of the schizophrenic nature of the women’s tour.
Iga Swiatek was the highest-ranked quarterfinalist at 8th. Unseeded Czech Barbora Krejcikova eventually beat 31st seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in a gripping final. It was madness.
Osaka-gate sucked up all the oxygen in the women’s draw, with much of the 2nd week’s media coverage fixated on the giants of the men’s game. People were more interested in the ‘feud’ between Osaka and Piers Morgan than the coronation of a new Roland Garros Queen.
Naomi Osaka has chosen to skip this year’s Wimbledon Championships as she focuses on the Tokyo Olympics. I actually have a lot of sympathy for that move. Already suffering from a delicate psychological state, can you imagine the pressure that she will be subjected to at her ‘home’ Olympics?
Let’s just hope that Osaka can find some peace of mind in this protracted rest period.
The real story this year revolves around Serena Williams. Many observers- myself included- gave her little chance of succeeding in Paris. A 4th round showing represented a decent run for the American considering her lack of clay-court preparation.
The question this week is simple. Can she finally win her 24th Grand Slam and equal Margaret Court’s Grand Slam record? It has become a real bugaboo for the iconic Williams and surely this event represents her greatest chance of finally achieving that goal.
The seven-time Wimbledon Champion is a master on this surface. Beyond that, there are huge question marks surrounding her main rivals entering this year’s event. Let’s take a look at my picks to make a decent run at this year’s Championship.
My Favourites: Serena Williams and Aryna Sabalenka
This looks like it could be Serena’s year. She actually exceeded my expectations with her performance in Paris. She is one of the players who won’t be as affected by the quick turnaround in surface or lack of preparation time.
Williams has reached the final of this event the last four times she has played it. When she plays her best here, she only needs two shots: that serve and forehand.
There’s a ruthless simplicity to it that evokes Pete Sampras. As I noted earlier, many of her biggest rivals have huge question marks against them.
Osaka has dropped out while Ashleigh Barty is still under an injury cloud. Defending champion Simona Halep just had to withdraw from the Bad Homburg event due to injury. The Romanian may pose the biggest threat to Williams with a 24-8 win-loss record at SW19.
But the rest of the top ten have only one appearance beyond the 4th round here between them. This event just seems tailormade for Ms Williams.
Now I know that I was slightly burnt by Aryna Sabalenka in Paris. But I firmly believe that this is the surface that could ultimately define her. As I have noted before, everything about her screams Amelie Mauresmo.
She reached the final at Eastbourne in 2018 but hasn’t really offered too much else on this surface (though at the time of writing she had qualified for this year’s Eastbourne quarterfinals).
But her humungous serve and tendency to keep points short should work perfectly here. She has already reached three finals this year, winning the tiles in Abu Dhabi and Madrid. I think that she will welcome this quicker surface and I expect her to go deep this week.
My Dark Horses: Belinda Bencic, Victoria Azarenka and Daria Kasatkina
As I already alluded to, I’m pretty sceptical about most of the world’s top 10 coming into this event. Outside of Naomi Osaka, it hasn’t really been too advantageous of late to have a single-digit next to your name in a Slam.
Of course, you could look at those two obvious lefties. Petra Kvitova and Angelique Kerber are former Wimbledon champions who are currently playing fairly well in the Bad Homburg Open.
But I’m still inclined to swerve them. Kerber has been in disastrous form over the past two seasons while Kvitova hasn’t made it past the 4th round here since 2014.
I also think that Coco Gauff may underwhelm this year. In 2019 she exploded onto the scene, becoming the youngest player to reach the main draw at Wimbledon in the Open Era (she went all the way to the 4th round).
She looked set for a huge week in Paris as many of the top contenders fell by the wayside. But she lost her nerve in her quarterfinal loss. Knowing how volatile the women’s draw has been of late, I’m more disposed to go in slightly less obvious directions this year,
Belinda Bencic has enjoyed a real up-and-down campaign. She lost finals in Adelaide and Berlin. Crucially, that final in Berlin came on grass last week. She blew a seemingly insurmountable lead in that final but still managed to enhance her grass-court reputation.
In 2015 she won the Eastbourne International and reached the final of the Rosmalen event. In 2019 she reached the final in Mallorca. She has twice reached the 4th round here and I think she has the game to go deep this year.
Looking to emulate Swiss greats Hingis and Federer, Bencic will probably be secretly thankful following her early exit in Eastbourne this year.
Victoria Azarenka is fresh off a comeback 2020 that saw her reach her first Grand Slam final since 2013. The 2020 US Open finalist also happens to be a two-time Wimbledon semi-finalist. I think she is the type of experienced grass-court campaigner who could exploit this vulnerable draw.
She has also enjoyed an extremely solid- if truncated- grass-court season. She reached the final in Berlin last week and she is still competing in the Bad Homburg event. She is a Grand Slam specialist with vast experience on this surface. She is a past Eastbourne finalist to boot.
Daria Kasatkina is my real dark-horse pick this week. The 24-year-old Russian looked set to be one of the world’s top players in 2018. She reached the final of Indian Wells and made it through to two Grand Slam quarterfinals (one of which was at Wimbledon).
But she has struggled with consistency over the past few years. That said, the crafty baseliner has roared back to relevance in 2021. She has already won the Phillip Island Trophy and St Petersburg Open.
Furthermore, Kasatkina has once again shown her grass-court mettle. She reached the final in Berlin last week. And now she is riding high after beating 4th seed Iga Swiatek at the Eastbourne International.
And there will probably be at least one obscure player who invades the latter portions of this event- likely of Eastern-European descent. This is part of the fun of women’s tennis in its present incarnation. There is a glorious unpredictability to things. Perhaps Serena will restore the status quo with her 24th Grand Slam this year.
