Damien Kayat previews the quarterfinals between Paula Badosa and Veronika Kudermetova as well as Maria Sakkari and Elena Rybakina from the WTA Tour’s Indian Wells Masters.
WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Indian Wells Masters- BNP Paribas Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals- 17th March
Paula Badosa (5) (44/100) vs Veronika Kudermetova (21) (17/10)
Spanish sensation Paula Badosa kept her title defence on track with a hard-fought victory against US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez. She fought hard, saving five of the six break points she faced. Badosa is yet to drop a set this week and is currently on a 9-match Indian Wells winning streak. She is actually looking to become the first woman to win back-to-back Indian Wells titles since Martina Navratilova in 90/91.
I have to admit- Badosa wasn’t really on my radar as we entered this event. The Spaniard has been underwhelmed since winning her 3rd WTA title in Sydney earlier this year. After crashing out of the Aussie Open in the 4th round, she registered back-to-back early defeats in the Middle East.
I was just beginning to wonder if opponents had started to figure Badosa out. But she has looked amazing this week and is yet to drop a set. This despite the fact that her serve hasn’t been as efficient as usual. She may need to increase her first-serve percentage against the dangerous Kudermetova.
Veronika Kudermetova has been one of those under-the-radar success stories in 2022. She has runner-up finishes at the Melbourne Summer Set and Dubai Tennis Championships.
And her success hasn’t been isolated to singles competition. She won the doubles titles in Dubai and reached the doubles final in Qatar. So, this has been a breakthrough season for Kudermetova on many levels.
But all that success will pale in comparison to a title here. Kudermetova has the power to penetrate these courts on a consistent basis. She was obviously a helpless spectator in the early Osaka drama (the Japanese star was reduced to tears by a heckler). But she was all business and managed to successfully navigate that potentially awkward exchange.
She then beat Bouzkova before a nail-biting three-setter against the pugnacious Vondrousova.
The Verdict: Kudermetova to win in three sets at 48/10- Amazingly enough, Kudermetova has a commanding 3-0 head-to-head record against the Spaniard. She won their most recent encounter in straight sets at last year’s Charleston Open. But I think it’s fair to say that this Paula Badosa is almost an entirely different beast now. These courts aren’t playing particularly quick this year and you can expect quite a few extended rallies. I feel like Kudermetova can penetrate the court just as well as Badosa. Her head-to-head superiority makes her look like a good bet to win three.
Maria Sakkari (6) (7/10) vs Elena Rybakina (17) (17/10)
Maria Sakkari is like the Felix Auger Aliasimme of the women’s game. For all her consistent improvement over the last two tears: she simply doesn’t win enough. Sakkari still has only one title to her name: a fairly uninspiring 2019 Rabat Open.
But she has risen through the rankings due to her relentless consistency. She reached two Grand Slam semi-finals last year. And this pattern of consistency has continued in 2022. She came into this year’s Indian Wells with a 11-4 record. She reached the final in St Petersburg and semi-final in Qatar. But it sometimes feels like you’re waiting for the axe to fall. It’s the hope that kills you with Sakkari. But she definitely has the ability to win multiple events a year. Her serve has improved and she is powerful on both wings.
She is yet to drop a set this year and is coming into this quarterfinal fresh off a walkover victory. This is the time for her to really cement her status as a top player on the tour.
Elena Rybakina is one of those players who has faded into the background over the last two years. She reached a tour-best five finals in 2020. But her results in 2021 were middling to poor. But the big server is a dangerous player with power on both wings. This was evident when she reached her 8th WTA final earlier this year, losing to Ashleigh Barty in the Adelaide final.
She is also yet to drop a set this week ( which includes a victory against two-time Indian Wells champ Victoria Azarenka). But this encounter will require the Kazakh to step it up to another level.
The Verdict: Sakkari to win in straight sets at 7/10- Interestingly, Rybakina has won their only previous match, beating Sakkari in the 2020 St Petersburg semi-final. I think this is going to be a much tougher proposition for Rybakina. Rybakina can hit rockets on either side. But her movement is far inferior to the ultra-athletic Sakkari. Sakkari should dominate the longer exchanges, with these Indian Wells courts not exactly facilitating rapid points. The ball moves through the thin air quickly enough. But the courts have been more sluggish than I expected.
