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PREVIEW: 2022 WTA Tour – Madrid Open Women’s Final

Damien Kayat previews the WTA Tour’s Madrid Open final between Ons Jabuer and Jessica Pegula.

Wimbledon
Image copyright - Steve Haag Sports

Damien Kayat previews the WTA Tour’s Madrid Open final between Ons Jabuer and Jessica Pegula.

Two women looking excitedly at cellphone

I think it’s fair to say that this is a fairly strange time in women’s tennis. The era of Serena Williams seems pretty much over (not to discount the great woman).

The resulting power vacuum has resulted in a number of would-be usurpers over the last few years (Ashleigh Barty and Naomi Osaka chief amongst them). But with Barty retired and Osaka distracted, it has been left to 20-year-old Pole Iga Swiatek to step in and blow the competition away.

Outside of Swiatek, the women’s game has proven to be a remarkably fluid and unpredictable affair. And this week in Madrid has proved no different, with Ons Jabeur and Jessica Pegula providing a delightfully offbeat WTA 1000 final./

Ons Jabuer (8) (48/100) vs Jessica Pegula (12) (16/10)

Ons Jabeur (8)

Just to give you an indication of how wild this event has been, 8th seed Ons Jabeur has been the highest remaining seed in the event since the round of 16. The 27-year-old has emerged as one of the stronger dark horse contenders to derail Swiatek at Roland Garros this year. 27-year-old Jabeur has been something of a late bloomer on tour, only rising to prominence over the last three years. But what a few years it has been.

The trailblazing Tunisian has just been breaking down barriers at every corner. She became the first Arab woman to reach a Grand Slam quarterfinal at the 2020 Aussie Open. Last year she became the first Arab woman to win a WTA title by claiming the Birmingham Classic. That was just the highlight in a season that saw her come within an inch of reaching the WTA Finals. And this year she looks determined to prove it was no fluke.

The crafty Tunisian started the season in fairly humdrum fashion, failing to get beyond the quarterfinal of any event leading into the clay-court season. Perhaps she was still feeling some of the lingering effects of last year’s arduous campaign.

But she has looked like the 2nd best player in the world on the clay-courts this year. She lost a nail-biting Charleston final to Olympic Gold Medallist Belinda Bencic. She followed that up with a reasonable quarterfinal run in Stuttgart. But she now enters the biggest final of her career, becoming the first African woman in history to reach the final of a WTA 1000 event.

She avenged her defeat to Bencic in the round of 16 before swatting Halep away with near-contempt in the quarterfinal. And then she exacted yet more revenge in the semi-final against qualifier Ekaterina Alexandrova. She overturned an awful 6-1 head-to-head record against the Russian in a dominant display. Jabeur’s court coverage has been sensational this week and she is going to take some stopping.

Jessica Pegula (12)

Speaking of late bloomers, 28-year-old American has really emerged out of nowhere over the course of the last two years. Pegula has incrementally been building momentum in the biggest events. She has now reached back-to-back Aussie Open quarterfinals and become one of the most consistent performers at WTA 1000 level. In fact, Pegula has now reached the quarterfinals or better at six of her last eleven WTA 1000 events.

Only Iga Swaitek has won more WTA 1000 matches spanning 2021 and 2022. She reached the semi-finals in Miami and has now gone one better, reaching her maiden WTA 1000 final. In the process, she became only the 3rd American woman- after the Williams sisters- to reach the Madrid final. Illustrious company indeed.

Granted, she has benefitted from a fairly benign draw (she is yet to play a seeded player in Madrid). But that doesn’t really mean too much in the wildly inconsistent world of the WTA Tour. Pegula outmuscled Jill Teichmann in her semi-final, hitting 22 winners with her characteristically flat groundstrokes. What has really impressed me has been Pegula’s serve.

She won 16 of 23 points on her 2nd serve against Teichmann. She has developed more kick in that shot and doesn’t offer too many ‘gimmes’ in that department. This could prove decisive against the resourceful Jabeur.

The Verdict: Jabeur to win in three at 16/5- This will be their 5th career meeting and they currently share the spoils at two wins apiece. Pegula won their first two matches back in 2018. It has been Jabeur who has bossed it since, winning last year in Chicago and this year in Dubai. This will be their first ever clay-court meeting. Jabeur has certainly faced down the more intimidating opponents this week( she overpowerd both Halep and Bencic in straight-sets).

I think this will be a close encounter between two in-form players. Pegula’s flatter groundstrokes will be met by Jabeur’s greater variety. And that’s where I think Jabeur has the edge. She can figure opponents out and win in a multitude of ways.

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