Damien Kayat previews the WTA Tour's Miami Open round of 128 matches featuring Sofia Kenin vs Anhelina Kalinina as well as Naomi Osaka vs Astra Sharma.
2022 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Miami Open
Miami Gardens, Florida (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 128 Matches
Sofia Kenin 76/100 | Anhelina Kalinina 1/1
The last two years have seen a dramatic fall from grace for 23-year-old American Sofia Kenin. Kenin took the world by storm in 2020, winning her maiden Grand Slam in Australia before losing the Roland Garros final.
She was voted WTA Player of the Year in that Covid-interrupted season. But struggles with form have plagued the American since the beginning of last year. These issues with form were only exacerbated by illness and injury.
She basically missed the second half of 2021 due to injuries (including appendicitis). She also had to withdraw from the US Open due to a positive Covid test.
So, things seem to have conspired against the talented American. But I thought she would have got her act together by now. Things seem to have gone from bad to worse for Kenin.
After reaching the quarterfinals in Adelaide earlier this year, she has lost her next five consecutive first-round matches. She is now ranked outside the world’s top 100 (she was ranked number four in the world just over two years back).
She may be hoping for some home comforts in Florida this week (Kenin actually resides in Florida). It may be what she needs to rediscover her mojo.
This match would have been considered a Kenin lock two years back. But the 25-year-old Russian has been steadily rising over the last year (a stark contrast to Kenin’s nosedive).
2021 was a breakthrough year for the solid Russian baseliner. She reached her maiden WTA Final on the clay in Budapest (losing to Yulia Putintseva in the final). She also won a whopping five titles on the ITF Tour, clawing her way into the world’s top 100 for the first time.
She actually comes into this match ranked 53rd in the world (not too far behind her career-best ranking of 48 earlier this year). I find it slightly bewildering that she has risen as high as that.
A solid victory against ninth seed Cirstea in Adelaide led to a big jump in her rankings. But her year hasn’t been much more successful than Kenin. She comes into this match with a win-loss record of 2-4 for the year.
Perhaps this could be an opportunity for Kenin to impress herself upon a similarly out-of-form player.
Verdict: Kenin to win in three at 7/2
Kenin leads their head-to-head 2-1, with all three of their matches coming back in 2017. This is going to be a tough fight. I really think that Kenin could benefit from playing in her hometown state.
She needs the confidence boost that this crowd will provide. She just needs to cut down on those errors. She is serving far too many double-faults and going for too much, too early.
She needs to return to her more conservative game, absorbing and redirecting shots. If she does, she should have too much for the plucky Kalinina.
Naomi Osaka 1/14 | Astra Sharma 13/2
Speaking of falling from grace, Naomi Osaka will be looking to bounce back following her tear-filled exit at Indian Wells. Osaka hasn’t been able to replicate the form that has seen her capture four Grand Slam titles.
She withdrew at the semi-final stage of the Melbourne Summer Set prior to a tame third round exit at the Aussie Open. She was then obliterated by Kudermetova in her second round match at Indian Wells.
Since disclosing her ongoing mental health issues, Osaka has drawn the ire of many in the tennis fraternity. I think that there is a deeply held notion that this multi-millionaire should just stop whinging and get on with things.
As if multi-millionaires are not susceptible to mental health issues. I was surprised to discover that Osaka has never gone beyond the quarterfinal stage here. That’s quite peculiar when you consider that these courts are considerably faster than Indian Wells (an event that Osaka won in 2018).
Osaka could hardly have handpicked a better opponent this week. Aussie Astra Sharma won her maiden WTA title last year, beating Ons Jabeur in the Charleston Open final.
But since then, Sharma has reached just one WTA quarterfinal in 19 tour-level events. Sharma has never reached higher than number 84 in the world rankings. And she is currently experiencing a pretty dreadful 2022.
Outside of qualifiers, Sharma has only won one tour-level match in 2022. That came just last week, when she dispatched of Magda Linette in the Indian Wells round of 128 (she actually only made it into the main draw as a lucky loser).
Verdict: Osaka to win in three at 7/2
This is just the only way to find value in this match. I think that Osaka will ultimately pull through this match (she is simply too good for Sharma).
But perhaps there’s value in backing on a minor mental blip from Osaka in the match. Sharma has the ability to string together some thunderous shots from the back of the court. She just lacks the consistency to string sets together.
