Damien Kayat previews Iga Swaitek vs Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Sakkari in the semi-finals of the Indian Wells Masters, on 18 March 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Gardens, Indian Wells, California (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Semi-finals – 18th March
Iga Swaitek 2/9 | Elena Rybakina 31/10
This could prove to be a titanic struggle between two women who currently own three of the four Grand Slams on offer. World No.1 Iga Swiatek has bounced back admirably from a disappointing Aussie Open stint, winning the Qatar Open and reaching the final in Dubai.
Sure, she doesn’t quite carry the same aura of invincibility as she did last year. But the defending Indian Wells champion hasn’t dropped a set during this year’s tournament. And we will shortly be entering her favorite period of the year: the clay-court season.
She could probably be forgiven for thinking the clay-court season had already begun (such is the slowness of these surfaces). Iga Swiatek will be out for revenge this week: Rybakina stunned the Pole in the 4th round of this year’s Aussie Open.
Arguably the greatest server in the women’s game, I don’t think that many were giving Kazakh Elena Rybakina much of a chance at Indian Wells. But she has proved the naysayers wrong, getting enough traction off her first-serve to dictate rallies.
She just came through a surprisingly tough three-set grind against Muchova. The two-time Grand Slam finalist’s form has been petty humdrum since that scintillating run to the Aussie Open final.
In fact, it very much mirrors the way in which her form dipped last year after her stunning Wimbledon triumph. And she has hustled admirably this week despite the glacial conditions. I see her journey as similar to Daniil Medvedev’s quest in the men’s draw.
She has triumphed over adversity his week in unfavorable conditions. Now, can she possibly disrupt the best player in the world one more time?
Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets
These two share the head-to-head spoils with one win apiece. Rybakina won in straight sets at the 2021 Ostrava Open prior to their fateful meeting at this year’s Aussie Open.
I can’t see Rybakina keeping pace with Swiatek on this surface. The Kazakh star will always carry a puncher’s threat. But Swiatek will use the court to her advantage, employing her vast array of shot-making to tire out the power hitter.
Aryna Sabalenka (36/100) | Maria Sakkari 2/1
Aryna Sabalenka could not have hoped for a smoother ride at this year’s Indian Wells Masters. The Belarusian World no.2 thrashed Rodina prior to receiving a walkover in her round of 32 clash.
She was then tested by an in-form Krejcikova (proving that the brutal hitter has what it takes to go the distance at Indian Wells). She just trounced Coco Gauff on a surface that should have theoretically suited the clay-loving American.
It was a crucial victory as the American had won three of their previous four encounters. Sabalenka has improved in every department. Her serve is far more reliable under pressure and she is actually moving like an arch-clay-courter.
Sabalenka has now improved her sensational 2023 record to 16-1. The reigning Aussie Open champion had never previously reached beyond the final 16 here. It’s a testament to her general improvement that she has looked so composed this year.
In stark contrast to Sabalenka, last year’s beaten Indian Wells finalist Maria Sakkari has had to grind her way through this event.
Sakkari became only the 3rd player in Indian Wells history to reach the semi-finals here with three comeback victories under her belt. And her last outing was arguably her best yet.
She was trailing big-serving Petra Kvitova 4-6, 1-3 (15-40). And she pulled out all the stops in a gutsy display that typifies her never-say-die attitude. As I have noted a million times before, it almost feels criminal that Sakkari only has one WTA title to her name.
But she did reach two WTA 1000 finals in 2022 (at Indian Wells and Guadalajara).
Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three at 3/1
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4-3. Having said that, Sakkari has won their last two matches (the last of which was a routine straight-set win at last year’s WTA Finals). This is a tough one. Sabalenka has looked imperious at times and will feel far fresher going into this semi-final.
Still, Sakkari reached the final here for a reason last year and will have drawn massive confidence from her efforts thus far. She knows how to absorb Sabalenka’s power and should push the Belarusian to three sets.
