Damien Kayat previews the Madrid Open Women’s Final between Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka on Saturday 6 May.
2023 WTA 1000 Tour
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica (Outdoor Clay)
Women’s Final – 6 May
*Odds TBA
This has quickly turned into the elite rivalry in women’s tennis. I can’t really remember the last time that we had such a clearly defined top two in the women’s game. Sabalenka’s victory at the Aussie Open means that the pair are now both Grand Slam champions.
They are both enjoying excellent seasons and will be competing in 2nd consecutive final (Swiatek comfortably beat Sabalenka when defending her Stuttgart final). Sabalenka has evolved tremendously on clay over the past couple of years and- unlike her opponent- already possesses a Madrid title.
Iga Swiatek extended her faultless head-to-head record against Veronika Kudermetova to 3-0, absolutely obliterating the Russian 6-1, 6-1 in their semi-final. It extended her current winning streak to nine matches (which is actually pretty quaint by Swiatek’s recent standards). But it also improved her absolutely ridiculous career clay-court record to 53-7.
I remember the first time I saw Swiatek restlessly fussing on court ala Andre Agassi. I really never expected the fairly diminutive Pole to turn into such a colossus of the game. Swiatek obviously came into this season with an enormous weight of expectation after her all-conquering 2022.
The reigning French Open and US Open champion has perhaps not dominated in the way that some would have expected. Her Aussie Open 4th round defeat to Elena Rybakina reminded the world that she is still human. Still, her destruction of Kudermetova took her record to 25-4 for the year. She won in Qatar and is fresh off a brilliant victory in Stuttgart.
This will be her 4th final of the year and her 7thever WTA 1000 final. She has had the upper hand in this rivalry and will know that a typically aggressive start could lend a sense of déjà vu to proceedings.
World No.2 Aryna Sabalenka looked ominous against Maria Sakkari, absolutely blasting the Greek off the court to reach her 5th final of the year. She is the first player since Azarenka in 2012 to reach five WTA Finals prior to Rome. She has always been a huge talent. But the Belarusian has often tuned into her own worst enemy in high-pressure situations. But that has certainly changed over the past few years.
In fact, since winning her first match against a top 10 player in 2018, no other player has registered more wins against top 10 players than Sabalenka (25). But that lopsided victory over Sakkari has taken her year-to-date record to a staggering 28-4. She started the year in brilliant fashion, winning in Adelaide before a career-defining victory at the Aussie Open. She followed that with finals at Indian Wells and Stuttgart. She will be aiming to win her 5th WTA 1000 and 2nd Madrid Open title.
And you have to admire the way Sabalenka has adjusted her game to clay. It could have been easy for her to go down the Azarenka route and juts tailor her game completely to harder surfaces. But she has added more variety to her game and worked tremendously on her mobility.
Of her first 13 WTA Finals, only one of them came on clay. In contrast, five of her last ten finals have come on the sticky stuff. She won the title here in 2021 and recently made it back-to-back Stuttgart finals. The problem is this: it was Swiatek who beat her in both those Stuttgart finals. But there is reason to believe that Sabalenka could pose more of a threat here.
The Madrid Open takes place at altitude and the ball tends to travel quicker in good conditions. Even Nadal has been less dominant on these surfaces than the other elite clay-court events.
Head-to-Head: Swaitek leads the head-to-head 5-2.
She obviously took down Sabalenka when they met in the Stuttgart final. But it was Sabalenka who emerged victorious in their previous meeting at Fort Worth. But Swiatek has crucially won all three of their clay-court matches in straight sets (winning 36 of their 50 total games on the slower surfaces).
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three
As I noted earlier, Madrid has a habit of playing quite a bit quicker than your average clay-court event. Sabalenka’s forehand looked sensational against Sakkari and I think this shot could really hurt the Pole. I think this represents her best chance of beating Swiatek during this entire clay-court swing. And there will be some pressure on the Pole as she attempts to keep Sabalenka from chipping away at her World Number One ranking.
