Damien Kayat previews Victoria Azarenka v Madison Keys and Beatriz Haddad-Maia vs Magda Linette in the round of 32 matches of the Italian Open, on the 13th of May 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 13th May
Victoria Azarenka *Odds TBA | Madison Keys *Odds TBA
This looks set to be a mouth-watering clash between two of the bigger hitters out there. Former World No.1 Victoria Azarenka has turned into one of the most dangerous sleepers in any given tournament.
Injuries and a protracted custody battle have prevented her from reaching the heights that she once scaled. But she still has a knack of pulling magic out of the hat when it counts. She reached the US Open and Indian Wells finals in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
She had a poor 2022 campaign before suddenly picking up a WTA 1000 semi-final appearance in Guadalajara. This year she reached the Aussie Open semi-final for the first time in a decade. She has been pretty cold since that scintillating Aussie Open run.
But a comfy straight-sets victory over Sloane Stephens marked an ideal start to Azarenka’s Rome campaign. Her problem is this: she hasn’t reached a clay-court final in ten years. She was once an ultra-competitive clay-courter, reaching two Madrid finals and an Italian Open final.
But injuries have diminished her mobility and she has tailored her game to hardcourt tennis (where she has won 20 of her 21 career titles). Can the 33-year-old alter that trajectory this week? And will winning the Madrid Doubles title alongside Haddad Maia be a help or hindrance as this event rolls on?
Next up for Azarenka is Grand Slam specialist Madison Keys. The American has reached at least the quarterfinal stage of every Grand Slam. This includes an excellent semi-final run at the 2016 French Open.
She has clay-court chops (winning the Charleston Open as recently as 2019). But the issue with Key has always been consistency. She adopts an ultra-aggressive approach that is a little high risk/high reward. She reentered the world’s top ten earlier this season courtesy of a barnstorming run at the United Cup.
But she hasn’t really built on that form since. There have still been glimmers of vintage Keys in there. She reached the quarterfinals at Indian Wells and is fresh off a quarterfinal run in Charleston.
She eased past Frech in her opening match and will be keen to correct a pretty significant head-to-head disparity against the Belarusian.
Verdict: Keys to win in straight sets –
Azarenka comfortably leads their rivalry 4-1. This includes a straight-sets demolition of Keys at the 2021 French Open (their only ever clay-court meeting). But Keys rinsed Azarenka when they last met in Dubai this year. I’m giving the edge to Keys here.
She was impressive at Charleston (going down to Kasatkina in a tight quarterfinal). I think she should be able to use that explosive forehand to steer clear of Azarenka’s dangerous double-handed backhand.
Beatriz Haddad-Maia 71/100 | Magda Linette 11/10
This should prove to be an interesting clash in styles. Big-serving lefty Beatriz Haddad Maia looks to dominate on serve and uses her doubles prowess to maraud the net (she partnered Azarenka to last week’s Madrid Open double’s title).
She has endured a torrid time away from the court, with injuries and a doping suspension threatening to end her promising career. But she has showed great fortitude and enjoyed a stellar 2022. She won back-to-back titles in Nottingham and Birmingham before reaching the Canadian Open final.
These performances helped to propel her into the top 15 in the world. 2023 has been a bit of mixed bag for the Brazilian. She reached the semi-finals in Abu Dhabi and has three other quarterfinals to her name.
Can she build on that double’s success in Madrid and challenge for a first clay-court crown. She breezed past Ruse with ease and will look to blow away Magda Linette with her power-based game.
I think it’s safe to say that nobody saw Magda Linette’s Aussie Open performance coming (including Linette herself). How did a journeywoman- a defensive baseliner at that- come out of nowhere to reach the semi-final of the Aussie Open?
She has reportedly been working with coach Mark Gellard on turning into a more proactive on-court presence. And this was certainly evident in the Aussie Open. Linette wasn’t content to wait deep in the court and just get balls back in play.
She stepped inside to hit clean winners, accounting for the likes of Garcia and Pliskova en route to the semi-final. In fact, her final in Chennai last year was a sign of things to come. But her form has pretty much flatlined since then (she hasn’t reached a quarterfinal since).
And she struggled in the first set of her opening match against Noskova. She needs to seriously up her game against the Brazilian.
Verdict: Haddad Maia to win in straight sets – 47/20
This will be the first career meeting between these two. I just can’t see Linette matching the pure power of Haddad-Maia. She needs faster surfaces to allow her to really penetrate the court.
She is forced to play more defensively on a surface where her groundstrokes aren’t as penetrative. I think the Brazilian will overwhelm her with her big serve and sharp volleying skills.
