Beatriz Haddad Maia 2/7 | Ajla Tomljanovic 26/10
Versatile Brazilian Betriz Haddad Maia is mounting a late-season comeback after what has been a disappointing campaign. The lefty has overcome plenty of adversity in her career (including multiple injury issues and a doping suspension).
But she reannounced herself during the 2022 season, winning back-to-back grass-court titles in Nottingham and Birmingham (prior to a runner-up finish in Toronto).
She then reached the semifinal at last year’s French Open (where her exceptional grinding skills came to the fore). She has been under the radar for much of this season, reaching the semifinals in Abu Dhabi (but doing little else). But she burst into life on the eve of the US Open, finishing runner-up in Cleveland to reignite her flagging campaign.
She then overperformed in New York, reaching the quarterfinals of the US Open to enhance her burgeoning status as a Grand Slam dark horse. Haddad Maia has a brilliant touch at the net but also loves to engage in long, drawn-out rallies.
This has been an extremely frustrating period in the career of 31-year-old Aussie Ajla Tomljanovic. To put it into context, the big-serving Aussie reached a career-high ranking of 32 in April last year.
However, she was forced to miss much of the season due to a left knee injury. She then underwent surgery towards the start of this season and has struggled to reestablish herself, bringing a humdrum record of 13-14 into this event. But she improved her 2024 record to an even 14-14 after an epic three-set win against Jang Su-Jeong. But how she won that match is beyond me.
The Aussie gave one of the worst serving performances you will ever see by a match-winner, serving 16 double faults (with no aces to balance that out).
The Aussie usually relies on a strong serve as the foundation of her game. She will need to tighten that up considerably as she meets the industrious Haddad Maia
The Verdict: Haddad Maia to win in three sets 3/1
This will be the first career meeting between these two. This has three sets written all over it. Haddad Maia is renowned as a bit of a grinder and Tomljanovic is fresh off her own epic three-set win.
Tomljanovic could be quite competitive if she fixes those serving issues. I still think that the indefatigable Brazilian will grind this out in three.
Daria Kasatkina 32/100 | Hailey Baptiste 23/10
Top seed Daria Kasatkina has enjoyed a magnificent 2024 campaign (albeit she hasn’t been able to play her best tennis at Grand Slam level). She is 30-18 this year, winning a title in Eastbourne and picking up runner-up finishes in Adelaide, Abu Dhabi and Charleston.
The crafty all-court operator has turned into a consistent all-season campaigner: she has competed in 12 finals since the start of 2021. She will be making her first appearance since a disappointing 2nd round exit to Stearns at the US Open.
To be fair, she has gone somewhat quiet since the tour hit the North American hardcourts: she is 2-4 in her last four events. Perhaps she has been a victim of what has been an extremely brutal schedule. Still, she has spent some time away from the court and she should feel reinvigorated this week.
22-year-old American Hailey Baptiste will be looking for a strong showing this week, as she hopes to finish the season ranked inside the top 100 in the world. The aggressive American reminds me of Taylor Townsend- they both look to approach the net with far more regularity than your average tour player.
Baptiste is yet to really make much of an impression on the regular tour, plying her trade on the ITF Tour for most of the season. She finished runner-up at an ITF event in Mexico earlier this year. But she has still struggled to establish herself on the tour.
She did pick up her first Grand Slam victory at this year’s French Open, losing to eventual finalist Jasmine Paolini in the 2nd round. She came into this event off the back of early exits in New York and Guadalajara. But she just picked up a morale-boosting victory, taking down former US Open Sloane Stephens 7-6, 6-2.
The Verdict: Kasatkina to win in three 3/1
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Baptiste could prove to be a tricky opponent for Kasatkina. She served brilliantly against Stephens, firing seven aces and winning 82% of her first-serve points.
Kasatkina could be caught cold by Baptiste’s unorthodox approach. Still, Kasatkina’s courtcraft should be able to see her over the line. Kasatkina in three looks like decent value here.
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