This looks set to be a showstopper, with World No.1 Iga Swiatek looking to exact some revenge on World No.2 Aryna Sabalenka following last year’s Madrid Open final defeat.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica
Final Preview – 3 May 2024
Iga Swiatek 29/100 | Aryna Sabalenka 5/2
Swiatek has looked the picture of determination this fortnight (she has only dropped one set thus far). Sabalenka has been far more haphazard and has spent considerably more time on court. These two are building up a storied rivalry and whatever happens in this match could serve as a bellwether for Roland Garros success.
Swiatek looked like a woman possessed against Madison Keys, needing just 70 minutes to brush aside the American and reach her second consecutive Madrid final. The World No.1 has been the preeminent clay-court player in the world for some time now, winning three of the last four editions of the French Open.
Victory over Keys meant she became the youngest person since Martina Hingis to reach ten WTA clay-court finals. She generates massive topspin with that forehand and uses her almost unrivalled athleticism to chase down everything.
She has only dropped one set this week (surprisingly losing the opener against Haddad Maia). But she looked typically ruthless against Keys, winning a staggering 64% of her second-serve return points. She has the ability to hone in on wobbly deliveries and Sabalenka’s serve- though impressive- has been known to wobble on big occasions.
Swiatek will be playing in her third final of the year after title-winning runs in Qatar and Indian Wells. She has now won a staggering eight WTA 1000 titles throughout her career. Two of those victories came on Rome clay and victory here would help her register a third WTA 1000 clay-court crown.
It would also mean she would have won five different WTA 1000 events. Swiatek tends to perform her best on slow, laborious clay courts (see Rome and Paris). It’s little wonder that she hasn’t casually dominated Madrid. The altitude affects the ball speed dramatically and aggressive players can put Swiatek into uncomfortable situations. Still, Swiatek enjoyed a brisk outing against Keys and will feel nicely rested for this clash.
On the other side of the spectrum, World No.2 Aryna Sabalenka had to call on all her powers of resilience to overcome Rybakina in a draining marathon of a semi-final.
This has been an absolute roller-coaster of a season for Sabalenka. She went from the ecstasy of winning a second consecutive Aussie Open title to the heartbreak of her ex-boyfriend’s apparent suicide. And her all-round game definitely suffered in and around that devastating loss.
In fact, the Belarusian had gone 4-4 since the Aussie Open before the start of this title defence. That included an early exit in her opening clay-court event in Stuttgart. But the former two-time Madrid Open champion has fought valiantly this fortnight, drawing on all her skill and tenacity to overcome some occasional lapses in form.
Her epic comeback win over Rybakina was actually her fourth three-set tussle in this year’s event. No player has dropped more games en route to the Madrid Open final since its inception in 2009. That speaks volumes about her girt and unwillingness to accept defeat. She trailed by a set and 4-2 against Rybakina but somehow managed to find a way past the seemingly immovable Kazakh.
She experienced some notable serving yips but delivered when it mattered, ultimately smashing 35 winners to 29 unforced errors. That is a highly respectable ratio when you consider the depth of Rybakina’s groundstrokes.
The win also brought Rybakina’s stunning 16-match clay-court winning streak to an end.
Verdict: Swiatek to win in straight sets 76/100
Swiatek leads the head-to-head 6-3. Having said that, they are 2-2 in their last four meetings. Sabalenka’s victory over Swiatek in last year’s final felt like a game-changer, giving the Belarusian the confidence that she can beat Swiatek on any surface.
This will actually be their first meeting this season (Swiatek brushed Sabalenka aside in their last meeting at the WTA Finals). I think that Swiatek has the chance to rubberstamp her dominance this week. Sabalenka has obviously shown plenty of fortitude this fortnight and won’t be easy to beat.
But Swiatek has looked eerily calm out there and I think she has what it takes to sweep the Belarusian. Sabalenka has been coughing up double-faults and Swiatek has looked merciless on return.
