The WTA Finals continues this week as Iga Swiatek faces Jessica Pegula while Coco Gauff goes up against Barbora Krejcikova in the group stages. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA Finals
WTA Finals
King Saud University Indoor Arena
Selected Orange Group matches – 7 November
Iga Swiatek 31/100 | Jessica Pegula 24/10
Former World No.1 Iga Swiatek fell to 1-1 in the Orange Group after what was quite frankly an awful display against Coco Gauff. She got out of jail in her opening match against Barbora Krejcikova, rallying back from an almost unsurmountable deficit to extend her WTA Finals winning streak to six matches.
But she finally ran out of gas against Gauff, committing a barely believable 47 errors in one of her shoddiest performances in recent memory. Based on that performance, it’s hard to gauge what she and new coach Wim Fisette have been working on.
It seems as if her decision to take a two-month break after the US Open has caught up to her. Her footwork was poor, and she just seemed a shadow of her best self. She now has only one path to WTA Finals qualification: she must beat Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff must beat Barbora Krejcikova.
It must be frustrating for Swiatek to have destiny taken out of her hands this week.
Speaking about pale imitations of your best self, Jessica Pegula slumped to a 2nd consecutive straight-sets defeat and is officially out of semifinal contention. She was thoroughly outplayed by both Gauff and Krejcikova and will no doubt be looking forward to putting her feet up in the off-season.
Pegula just hasn’t been the same player since lighting up the North American hardcourt season. She probably played the best tennis of her career during that stretch, retaining her Canadian Open title before back-to-back runner-up finishes at Cincinnati and the US Open.
That result at Flushing Meadows felt significant, breaking a string of six consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinal defeats. But she has looked lethargic in the aftermath of that US Open run, going 3-4 in her last seven matches.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in three sets 3/1
This has been a closely fought rivalry, with Swiatek currently leading the head-to-head 6-4. Pegula won their most recent encounter with ease, breezing past the Pole in straight sets at this year’s US Open.
Neither of these two players are in elite form at present. That’s why I think a three-set match could be on the cards here: neither of them is playing decisive tennis. Pegula is a true professional who won’t want to leave Riyadh without a set.
However, there’s just a part of me that thinks that the ultra-competitive Swiatek will get the job done in the end despite her ragtag form.
Coco Gauff 31/100 | Barbora Krejcikova 47/20
Coco Gauff’s straight-sets win over Swiatek- just her 2nd win against the Pole in 13 meetings- has assured her of a semifinal berth at this year’s WTA Finals. Victory in this match – regardless of what happens in the Swiatek -Pegula tie – will ensure that she finishes top of Orange Group and avoid Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals (which seems a healthy prospect for sustained success).
The American beat Swiatek 6-3, 6-4 in an error-strewn affair that had a distinct late-season feel to it (there were an incredible 80 unforced errors in just two sets of tennis). Gauff committed a ‘measly’ 33, spraying 11 double faults in the process.
Still, she held her nerve in the crucial moments to reach the semifinal stage. It was a significant result, ensuring that Aryna Sabalenka ends the year as World No.1.
She broke a four-match losing streak against Swiatek and ended the Pole’s six-match win streak in the WTA Finals. She won’t want to leave anything to chance as she squares up against the pugnacious Barbora Krejcikova.
Nobody can deny Barbora Krejcikova’s fighting spirit. The Czech player is only competing at this year’s season-ending championships due to a new rule protecting the year’s Grand Slam champs. She only finished 13th in the live rankings but was allowed to compete due to her astonishing triumph at SW19.
She was on the verge of creating a massive upset in her opening match, leading Swiatek 6-4, 3-0 before a massive capitulation saw her surrender that match. The Czech star didn’t wallow in self-pity, brushing herself off to give one of her best hardcourt performances in recent memory.
She eased past Jessica Pegula 6-3, 6-3, notching up 11 aces in a resounding statement of intent. She bullied the American, breaking her four times in six attempts. That straight-set victory has given her multiple paths towards semifinal qualification.
She can finish top of the group if she beats Gauff in straight sets and Swiatek beats Pegula, or if she beats Gauff and Pegula beats Swiatek. She will still finish 2nd in the group if she loses to Gauff but Pegula goes on to beat Swiatek. Not a bad place to be.
The Verdict: Krejcikova to win in three 6/1
The Czech leads the head-to-head 1-0, beating Gauff comfortably in the 2021 French Open quarterfinals. So, there’s not a lot to go on in this head-to-head rivalry.
I think that the Czech has a decent chance of upsetting Gauff. The American was poor against Swiatek and Krejcikova was almost dismissive of Pegula. Krejcikova is an excellent returner and will look to capitalize on Gauff’s vulnerable delivery.
