The WTA Finals continues this week as Aryna Sabalenka faces Elena Rybakina while Jasmine Paolini goes up against Qinwen Zheng in the group stages. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA Finals
WTA Finals
King Saud University Indoor Arena
Selected Purple Group matches – 6 November
Aryna Sabalenka 24/100 | Elena Rybakina 29/10
Damp squib, anyone? With Sabalenka already qualified for the semifinals and Rybakina already eliminated- this feels like little more than a glorified exhibition match. Having said that, victory for World No.1 Sabalenka will guarantee she ends the year as World No.1 for the first time in her career. So, there’s that.
This has been a truly sensational year for Aryna Sabalenka (it’s crazy to think that there was a time when she was considered a perennial underachiever). She has surpassed Swiatek to become the preeminent player in women’s tennis, winning both the Aussie and US Opens to extend her Grand Slam tally to three championships.
She comes into this match in imperious form, winning 22 of her last 23 matches (and three of her last four tournaments). She hasn’t dropped a set this week, saving two set points against Paolini in her last outing.
She won 72% of her first-serve points against the pugnacious Italian and she looks a wonderful fit for these indoor surfaces.
This has been a bit of a surreal campaign for Rybakina. She has an impressive record of 41-11 for the season, winning titles in Brisbane, Abu Dhabu and Stuttgart. Moreover, she also has runner-up finishes in Miami and Qatar.
But she underperformed quite badly on the hardcourt slams this season: she was eliminated in the 2nd round of both the Aussie and US Opens. She just seems to have lost the fear factor she attained in the last two years or so.
She came into this event severely undercooked, having not struck a shot in earnest since her US Open 2nd round exit (she withdrew from the Asian swing due to a lower back issue). And it has shown.
She hasn’t looked anywhere near her best in her defeats to Paolini or Zheng, with her first-serve failing to give her the type of control that it usually exerts. She is a true professional who will hope to gain some psychological edge going into next season.
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets 67/100
Sabalenka leads their head-to-head rivalry 6-3, winning their most recent meeting at this year’s Madrid Open. Rybakina had won three of their four meetings prior to this year’s Madrid Open.
But she has looked severely undercooked, and I can’t see her withstanding Sabalenka’s raw power.
Jasmine Paolini 9/4 | Qinwen Zheng 1/3
This has the potential to be a mini classic, with both women slugging it out for one spot in the semifinals. Jasmine Paolini beat Rybakina in her Riyadh opener but fell to an inspired Sabalenka in her 2nd tie.
She battled heroically against the Belarusian, squandering two set points that would have levelled the match at one set apiece. Still, Paolini has been a bolt of lightning on this year’s tour.
She is now 39-19 for the season, playing with a carefree effervescence that has made her a firm fan favourite. She won a WTA 1000 title in Dubai and picked up back-to-back Grand Slam runner-up finishes at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
Paolini dropped off considerably in the wake of that Wimbledon runner-up finish. However, she will feel quietly confident after showing some real gumption against Sabalenka.
This has been an incredible year for Chinese superstar Qinwen Zheng (and one that could inspire a host of future Chinese superstars). She finished runner-up in the Aussie Open and would go on to create history at the Olympics, pulling off a monumental upset to defeat Iga Swiatek and win gold on the Roland Garros clay.
She won a title in Palermo and came into these championships fresh off of a title-winning run in Tokyo. She lost comfortably to Sabalenka in her Riyadh opener and showed plenty of spirit to see off a Rybakina comeback in her 2nd match.
She is in solid current form, winning 13 out of her last 16 matches. She is a really strong hardcourt competitor who can trade blows with almost anyone. She has a fantastic serve that is really the cornerstone of her success. She has gone to great lengths to improve her movement this season and she still has room to develop as a player.
The Verdict: Paolini to win in three sets 6/1
Zheng has won all three of their previous matches, seeing off the Italian in three sets at their most recent meeting in Wuhan. Zheng has been in much better recent form than Paolini.
However, there was something admirable in the way that Paolini fought back against Sabalenka. She has struggled to withstand Zheng’s powerful serve in the past but she seems to have acclimatized quite nicely to these surfaces, taking down the big-serving Rybakina before an admirable straight-sets defeat to Sabalenka.
