The Indian Wells Open continues this week as Elena Rybakina faces Mirra Andreeva as Qinwen Zheng goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the competition’s round of 16. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
Indian Wells Open
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Selected RO16 – 12 March
Elena Rybakina 88/100 | Mirra Andreeva 9/10
This promises to be a stellar round of 16 tie. Former Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina hasn’t had the smoothest campaign thus far. Yet to win a title, the big-hitting Kazakh has had several off-court issues to deal with.
The suspension of former coach Stefanis Vukic still resonates, with Goran Ivanisevic calling quits on their coaching arrangement at the end of the Aussie Open. Still, she has hardly disgraced herself this season, improving to 15-5 following her comfortable straight-sets win over Katie Boulter.
She served like a demon against the Brit, winning 85% of her first-serve points whilst serving five aces. She is yet to drop a set this week and appears extremely comfortable on the new surfaces (whatever speed they are playing).
Rybakina won this title back in 2023 and cannot be discounted this time around. However, her next assignment pits her against the person who recently eliminated her in the Dubai semis: Mirra Andreeva.
Russian teenager Mirra Andreeva is the current flavour of the month, having just captured her maiden WTA 1000 title in Dubai. She was magnificent in Dubai, taking down the likes of Swiatek and Rybakina en route to the title.
The victory took her to 9th in the world rankings (making her the youngest woman in eighteen years to break into the top ten). She credits improved mental fortitude for her meteoric rise.
Considered a purely defensive baseliner in her early years on tour, Andreeva is gradually becoming more proactive. She is one of the best returners on tour, and her serve has improved exponentially (she has served the 7th most aces this year).
She is currently on an eight-match winning streak, winning both of her Indian Wells Masters in straight sets. She was particularly severe against Clara Tauson in her round of 32 win (which was a replay of the Dubai final).
She outmaneuvered the Dane at every turn, winning 75% of her first-serve points as she sauntered to a 6-3, 6-0 win. Still just 17 years of age, the sky appears to be the limit for this graceful Russian talent.
The Verdict: Rybakina to win in three 36/10
These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece, with Andreeva obviously winning their most recent meeting in Dubai. One would think that these windy conditions would favour rally-machine Andreeva.
But I think that Rybakina’s greater power will allow her to penetrate the court a bit more. These courts haven’t looked noticeably faster this year and Rybakina has the power to hit clean winners on any surface. Still, Andreeva is playing some brilliant, instinctual tennis and this one could go all the way.
Qinwen Zheng 61/100 | Marta Kostyuk 5/4
Chinese superstar Qinwen Zheng is one person who seems to be enjoying the new Indian Wells surfaces. Zheng enjoyed a career-defining 2024 campaign, winning Olympic Gold in singles and reaching her maiden Grand Slam final in Melbourne (she also finished runner-up at the WTA Finals).
But the Chinese star really struggled in the early stages of this season, battling serving demons and a weak backhand as she slumped to 1-3 in her first four matches. But she has found a little something in the California air, winning consecutive matches for the first time this season (beating Azarenka and Lulu Sun in straight sets).
Her first-serve percentage hasn’t been amazing, and she has still served nine double faults over the first two matches. But she seems a bit more composed in the longer rallies, using that heavy, flat forehand to pin down her opponents. If there is any extra zip out there, Zheng will certainly exploit it.
Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk is one of the most entertaining- and somewhat infuriating- players on the WTA Tour. A firm fan favourite, Kostyuk plays an exciting, aggressive brand of tennis. She moves fluidly and looks to get forward, often drives volleying to finish points.
The only thing that is missing these days is the backflip celebration (which was a feature in her early days on tour). She enjoyed a solid 2024 campaign, finishing runner-up in San Diego and Stuttgart (she also reached her maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal in Melbourne).
But her form wavered in the latter part of the campaign, and she hasn’t exactly set the world on fire this (she has been eliminated in the first round of three events this season).
However, she picked up one of the biggest wins of her career in Qatar, taking down reigning WTA Finals champ Coco Gauff en route to a quarterfinal finish. The Ukrainian has looked revitalized at Indian Wells, winning both her matches in comfortable fashion. A semifinalist here last year, Kostyuk’s athleticism is a huge plus in windy, turgid conditions.
The Verdict: Kostyuk to win in straight sets 44/10
These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece, with Kostyuk winning their most recent meeting in Stuttgart last year. Zheng seems a different player since the return of coach Pere Riba (who just recovered from surgery).
But I just think that Kostyuk’s more polished all-court game is better suited to these conditions (as evidenced by her semifinal run last year).
