The Madrid Open continues this week as Iga Swiatek faces Alexandra Eala while Jasmine Paolini goes up against Katie Boulter in the competition’s round of 64 stage. Damien Kayat previews.
2025 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica
Selected RO64 – 25 April
Iga Swiatek 1/6 | Alexandra Eala 4/1
This match would have been a foregone conclusion 12 months ago. But former World No.1 Iga Swiatek’s aura of invincibility has dissipated (the Pole hasn’t reached a final since claiming her 4th Roland Garros crown last year).
I think that the Olympic final loss to Qinwen Zheng was a catalyst for some self-doubt. She has been consistent this season, reaching three semifinals and four quarter-finals.
But she appears to have lost some of the dynamism that saw her threaten to run away with the tour a few years ago. The clay-court demigoddess didn’t thrive in her first clay-court outing of the season, going out to eventual champ Jelena Ostapenko in the Stuttgart quarters (she has now lost six in six against the mercurial Latvian).
Swiatek will be hoping to reignite her campaign on courts where she has thrived in the past (she finished runner-up in 2023 before claiming the title last year). But next she takes on a player who overwhelmed her in Miami: Alexandra Eala.
These are exciting times for 19-year-old Alexandre Eala. The Filipino lefty – touted as a future Grand Slam contender – exploded into relevance at this year’s Miami Open, beating the likes of Swiatek and Keys en route to an unheralded semifinal berth.
Eala- a former US Open junior champ- had been competing successfully on the ITF Tour prior to that Miami run. The 19-year-old understandably dipped in her first event post-Miami, going down in the 2nd round of the WTA 125 event in Oeiras.
But she bounced back in impressive fashion in her Madrid opener, firing 27 winners to blow Tomova off the court 6-3, 6-2. In the process, she became just the 2nd Asian teenager – after Naomi Osaka – to claim five or more WTA 1000 victories in the same calendar year.
Eala is like a female version of Rafa, employing heavy topspin on that forehand wing. An aggressive baseliner with great fitness levels, Eala should be an ideal fit for these quickish clay surfaces.
The Verdict: Swiatek to win in three 31/10
Eala leads the head-to-head 1-0, producing that glorious upset win at this year’s Miami Open. Her aggressive, in-your-face style seemed to flip the switch on Swiatek, forcing the Pole to go on the defensive.
Swiatek will have learned from that meeting and should be able to recover on clay. However, Eala may be able to pinch a set if she can find her range with that booming lefty forehand.
Jasmine Paolini 24/100 | Katie Boulter 29/10
Diminutive Italian Jasmine Paolini is starting to find her groove. The aggressive Italian enjoyed a breakout season last year, reaching the finals at the French Open and Wimbledon Championships.
She started this season in subdued fashion, failing to reach a quarterfinal in her first four events. But she rediscovered some magic in Miami, reaching the semifinals before falling to World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka.
She then got her clay-court campaign off to an excellent start, beating Coco Gauff en route to a semifinal finish in Stuttgart. Paolini is tailor-made for clay. She is one of the best movers on tour and possesses a forehand that defies her small stature.
She utilises plenty of topspin on that forehand wing, keeping her opponents pegged back in baseline exchanges.
Katie Boulter enjoyed a solid 2024 campaign, reaching three finals and reaching a career-high singles ranking of 23. The Brit has struggled this season and needs to pick up wins if she hopes to retain the British No.1 ranking (Raducanu has been resurgent of late).
She missed the whole of February due to a foot injury and has struggled for any momentum since then. She did create a bit of personal history in her Madrid opener, incredibly recording her maiden WTA Tour clay-court win with her three sets win over Katerina Siniakova.
Boulter- with her strong serve and flat forehands- thrives on faster surfaces and neglected to play on clay till last year (which I find borderline negligent).
The Verdict: Paolini to win in straight sets 63/100
Paolini and Boulter share the head-to-head spoils at two wins apiece. Having said that, this will be their first clay-court meeting. Paolini should trounce Boulter.
She fits these surfaces like a glove. Her movement and use of topspin should be too much for the Brit to handle.
