PREVIEW: WTA San Diego Open – Selected Round of 16 Matches

2022 WTA Tour
WTA 500
San Diego Open
Barnes Tennis Centre, San Diego, United States (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 13th- 14th October

13th October
Daria Kasatkina (8) (61/100) vs Madison Keys (5/4)

This has been an extremely consistent season for the dogged Kasatkina. She reached a career-high ranking of 9th in August and comes into this match with a 39-18 record for the year.

Long touted as one of the best clay-court players in the world, Kasatkina underlined that with her maiden Grand Slam semi-final run at Roland Garros. She then picked up singles titles in San Jose and Gnabry. But the versatile baseliner’s form has stagnated somewhat since that Gnabry title win.

She fell to Harriet Dart in the opening round of the US Open before another disappointing showing at last week’s Ostrava Open. I think the tireless Kasatkina is occasionally the victim of her own psychotic schedule. But she didn’t seem too fatigued as she dominated Leylah Fernandez in her opening match.

She has already tasted success on North American hardcourts this year and she will take some beating.

Next up for Kasatkina is American Grand Slam staple Madison Keys. This has been quite a bizarre year for the 27-year-old American. On the surface, it has certainly been a successful year for Keys.

She has slowly re-entered the top 20 in the world rankings after a string of consistent results. She broke a three-year title drought by winning at the Adelaide International 2. She once again demonstrated her penchant for a deep Grand Slam run, going all the way to the semi-finals of the Aussie Open.

She picked up more decent results as the year went on (she reached the quarterfinals at Indian Wells and the 4th round of the French Open). She then returned to the top 20 of the world courtesy of her 9th career WTA 1000 semi-final in Cincinnati. But much like Kasatkina- her otherwise good form has petered out over the last month.

Her opening victory against Ellen Perez actually broke a three-match losing streak.

Verdict: Keys to win in straight-sets at 26/10- These two are very familiar with each other. And Madison Keys has largely dominated their head-to-head rivalry, leading the Russian 7-1.

In fact, Kasatkina only won one set in those first seven matches. But she flipped the switch earlier this year, conquering the Grand Slam titan in three sets at the Melbourne Summer Series. But I think normal service could resume this week. Kasatkina seems a tad jaded as we approach the end of the season and Keys will have the advantage of fanatical home support.

I also don’t think you can ignore seven consecutive victories.

14th October
Aryna Sabalenka (3) (32/100) vs Sloane Stephens (47/10)

Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka currently sits 7th in the Race to Fort Worth standings and won’t want to give any encouragement to those players just below her. A solid showing this week should put her in a great position to once again reach the season-ending showpiece. It’s been a strange old year for the powerful Sabalaneka.

She is attempting to pull off a Pliskova from last year (reach the WTA Finals without winning a title). She lost in the finals of Stuttgart and Den Bosch. Her form has wavered throughout the year but The North American hardcourt swing seemed to bring out the best in her. She reached the quarters in San Jose prior to an exceptional semi-final run in Cincinnati.

She then made it back-to-back US Open semi-finals with a rousing display in New York (she pushed eventual champ Iga Swiatek all the way in their semi-final). But this will be her first outing since competing in the year’s final Slam. Will her game suffer from cobwebs this week?

Much like Jelena Ostapenko, 29-year-old American is almost impossible to predict. The former US Open champ has battled with form-and possibly motivation- through the last few years. But 2022 threatened to be something of a comeback trip for Stephens.

She won her first title since 2018 at the Abierto Zapopan in Guadalajara. She then showed off her undoubted clay-court prowess with an excellent quarterfinal run at the French Open. But her form has absolutely nosedived since then.

She has not moved past the 2nd round of any of her last four events. But she looked mighty impressive in her opening victory against Jill Teichman.

She won in straight-sets but actually had to show a lot of grit in the process. The Swiss had a set-point in the 2nd but the American was not to be outdone.

Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three at 3/1- Sabalenka leads Stephens 2-1 in their head-to-head matches. Their last meeting was a three-set Sabalenka win at last year’s Canadian Open. Both of their matches have been three-set affairs.

This suggests that Stephens has the ability to withstand Sabalenka’s vicious groundstrokes. And that will be the pattern of the match- Sabalenka will be ultra-aggressive while Stephens looks to absorb pressure and counterpunch.

I think it will be another three-setter and yet another Sabalenka win. Stephens is just too erratic at present to string together consistent results.