Australian Racing tips – Wednesday 08 December 2021 – Warwick Farm

Best Bet: NIFFLER Race 4)

Value Bet: AUTHENTIC JEWEL (Race 7)

Jackpot (race 4 – 7).

Cost: R90.00

Race 4.

The day’s best bet, NIFFLER is two for two, having won over 1500M on debut and following that up with a victory last time out over 1300M by half a length when returning from a 33 week break and could be just about anything. She jumped awkwardly that day and was bumped shortly after the start, but still managed to finish off her race well, which makes the win that much more encouraging. From draw six, she could prove hard to topple. DYNASTIES has only had the three runs to date, winning over six furlongs on debut and then finishing second in her next two runs, the latest over 1500M, 0.8L behind the winner. She attracted plenty of betting support that day, but was bumped turning for home, but still stayed on well over the latter stages. She has her peak outing since returning from a 23 week rest and from her handy gate four, she could emerge as the biggest danger to the top choice. BELLE ESPOIR goes for her hat-trick after wins over a mile and the latest, a short-head victory over 1500M. She went from jump to wire that day and from draw two, she is likely to adopt similar tactics today.

Race 5.

BLACK QUEEN is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she missed out on her hat-trick when finishing third last time out over 1900M, just over two lengths back from the winner. She jumped awkwardly in that contest, but hit the front at the top of the straight and was only run out of it late. She has a wideish draw seven, but she should be right up there when they hit the line. DENILIQUIN followed up his penultimate run victory over 1900M with a second place finish next time out over 2300M, defeated by just a head, this despite overracing in the early and middle stages and then only seeing daylight at the 300M pole. He jumps from a wide draw ten, but he is likely to be dropped out of it in the early part of the race and then start to pick off the frontrunner over the closing stages. OUTLOOK is another 4yr old filly in the race, but she has won two of her last three starts, the latest over 2300M by a head, notwithstanding being slow away and being bumped shortly after the start. She recovered well to get to the head of affairs that day, only to be collared in the shadow of the post. She is drawn the widest of them all in gate eleven, but on the plus side she will get 1.5kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice to aid her cause.

Race 6.

This looks to be a tricky race with plenty of runners in with a realistic chance of finding the winner’s box, so some caution is suggested. The marginal top pick goes to GLITTERY who is a 3yr old filly taking on males, but she has her hat-trick run after two wins over 1100M, the latest by just under half a length. She came three wide into the home stretch that day, but made good late progress to run down the leaders and from her gates eight, she will be hoping to emulate that effort here. REBEL SHADOW had his consistency rewarded with a head victory last time out over six furlongs, despite having to be steadied on the home turn and being held up until the 75M mark, before finishing powerfully. He would have been an unluck loser that day and from a cozy gate three and having his peak run since returning from a 21 week absence, he should turn in another honest performance today. SUR LA MER is a 4yr old filly who is seldom far off the action and stayed on well when second last time out over six furlongs, just under a half length off the winner. She gets a wide draw nine out of ten, but she will have 1.5kgs removed from her allocated weight courtesy of her claiming apprentice.

Race 7.

A 3yr old and a 4yr old filly could fight out the finish to this race and secure the exacta, but the day’s value bet, AUTHENTIC JEWEL is taken to lead the field home. She missed out on her hat-trick when a tad disappointing last time out over 1100M, finishing nineth, five lengths behind the winner. She has cracked pole position and has her peak run after returning from a 16 week rest and if bouncing back to her better form, she could be the one that they all have to beat. QUATENUS on the other hand goes for her trio of victories after two wins over this sprint distance, the latest by one length when returning from a 29 week absence. She was bumped at the start that day, so that win was full of merit. She will have to negotiate a wide draw twelve, but she is a speedy sort who should use that early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy. OSAMU has won two of his last three runs, the latest over 1100M by 0.8L and the form of that race has stood up well with two runners out of that contest subsequently winning. The gelding jumped awkwardly that day but still managed to get to the lead and then hold off all the late challengers in the dash down to the line. He returns from a 24 week rest, but has finished fourth in both of his barrier trials to prove his fitness.