Damien Kayat previews the 2022 edition of the PGA Tour's Sony Open taking place at Waialae Country Club.
2022 PGA Tour
Sony Open
Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii
13th-16th January
The PGA Tour returned in thunderous style last week, with Cameron Smith holding off the close attention of World Number One Jon Rahm to claim his 4th PGA Tour title.
As a result, Rahm managed to keep Collin Morikawa at bay in their protracted battle for the World Number One ranking. Incredibly, three players (Smith, Rahm and Jones) managed to break the PGA Tour scoring record last week.
I actually found it a bit tedious. I’m not the biggest fan of watching these super-talented players decimate simple resort courses. It was almost as if players were disappointed with only making birdie on some of those holes.
It all felt a little bit farcical. In any event, this week the tour will complete its Hawaii swing with the Sony Open. The event can trace its origins back to the 20’s and it has been a staple on the tour since 1965.
It will be the first full-field event of the year, with many of the pros playing for the first time since last year’s RSM Classic: the year-ending Hero World Challenge and last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions were both limited-field events.
The Sony Open has been contested at Waialae Country Club since its modern-day inception as the Hawaiian Open in 1965. This course will be in many ways the antithesis of last week’s challenge at Kapalua.
Designed by Seth Raynor and opened in 1927, this is a tight, tree-lined test that features small Bermuda greens. Though it hasn’t really been evidenced in the recent stats, accuracy will prove far more important than driving distance this week.
That would explain why economical players such as Kevin Na have thrived here. As with any short, coastal course, scoring will largely depend on how the wind behaves (you can see this in the fairly large discrepancies in winning totals over the years).
It’s also important to note that four of the last seven winners had won earlier in the wraparound season. Furthermore- despite the course differences- there is still a strong correlation between success at Kapalua and success at Waialae: Cameron Smith’s victory last week made him the 6th man to capture both titles.
Smith is the obvious favourite this week after his heroics at Kapalua. He looked utterly unflappable with a charging Rahm on his tail. He won this event in 2020 and he looks primed for a real tilt at winning back-to-back titles this week.
Webb Simpson is your stereotypical surgical operator and it’s little surprise that he has strong course form here. But he did seem to drop off quite severely in the second half of last season.
The Asian duo of Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama have both already tasted victory during the wraparound season. Kevin Na will look to defend his title following a highly respectable finish at Kapalua.
Though not nearly as star-studded as last week’s tournament, the Sony Open will hopefully make for more fascinating viewing (especially if those trade winds decide to wreak havoc).
Past Winners
2021: Kevin Na (-21)
2020: Cameron Smith (-11) *playoff
2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
2018: Patton Kizzire (-17) *playoff
2017: Justin Thomas (-27)
To Win Outright:
Cameron Smith 12/1 | Webb Simpson 14/1 | Sungjae Im 20/1 | Hideki Matsuyama 20/1 | Mark Leishman 25/1
Value Bets
Corey Conners: To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2
Corey Conners just fits the profile for this course to a tee. He is currently 9th on tour for Driving Accuracy and 14th for GIR.
The Canadian hasn’t started the 2021/2022 season in scintillating fashion. But two top 25 finishes in three starts is not what you would call horrendous form. Crucially, Conners has excellent form around Waialae.
He followed up a T3 in 2019 with a T12 in 2020. He could be a great dark horse pick to add to his 2019 Valero Texas Open win.
Brendan Steele: To Win 90/1 | To Place 19/1
I know this is a slightly unimaginative play this week. Practically everyone is going to be playing Stelle this week given the outrageous value. Steele is your prototypical ‘horses for courses’ pick (it’s really unbelievable that he hasn’t won here before).
He looked set to capture the 2020 title before a crazy set of circumstances saw him lose momentum. Ryan Palmer took a lifetime to negotiate an OB on 18 and this greatly affected the flow of Steele’s game.
He collapsed and ultimately lost in a playoff to Steele. He then shot a 61 in the 3rd round last year to hold the 54-hole lead. But he fell away on Sunday and had to settle for a T4.
Sure, his form hasn’t been great. But that didn’t stop him from finishing in a tie for 2nd at the Zozo Championship in October. A ‘Steele’ at 90/1. I couldn’t resist.
The Man to Beat: Mark Leishman: To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2
As tempted as I was to play Smith this week, I have decided to go for another Aussie with better value: Mark Leishman. Leishman is actually in a decent vein of tournament form, finishing inside the top 20 in four of his last five starts.
He is fresh off a T10 finish at the stacked Tournament of Champions event. Perhaps more importantly, Leishman has an excellent record around Waialae. He finished in a tie for 4th last year to add to his T3 in 2019.
Leishman ticks all the boxes this week.
