PREVIEW: 2024 DP World Tour – Dubai Desert Classic

2023/2024 DP World Tour
Rolex Series
Dubai Desert Classic
The Majils Course, Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE
18th- 21st January

Rory McIlroy was left to rue a series of silly errors in the final round of last week’s inaugural Dubai Invitational, allowing Ryder Cup teammate Tommy Fleetwood to pick up his first title since claiming the 2022 Nedbank Golf Challenge.

Fleetwood has been in really consistent form over the past six months and perhaps this could be the year where he could finally capture Major success. The Middle East Swing continues this week with the 35th staging of the Dubai Desert Classic.

Dubai Desert Classic

First staged in 1989, the Dubai Desert Classic was the first event staged on the Arabian Peninsula. It was elevated to Rolex Series status in 2022 (a benefit of the new sponsorship deal with the Dubai-based DP World).

Apart from the 1999 and 2000 editions, the Majlis Course at Emirates Golf Club has hosted every renewal of this event.

The Majils Course

Designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, the Majlis course is a typical exposed desert layout. The fairways are rather generous and there isn’t a huge amount of penal rough out there. That means one thing: the big hitters tend to thrive here.

But it’s probably finding the putting surfaces that has proved the strongest indicator of success at Majlis. 12 of the last 18 winners have ranked inside the top 5 in GIR. The putting surfaces- recently re-laid to Bermuda TifEagle- are pretty flat and speedy.

There are putts to be made out there and you have to give yourself chances with solid iron play. As with any exposed desert track, there can be wild fluctuations in scores depending on the wind. It’s little wonder that strong links operators have flourished here in windy conditions.

The Contenders

Defending champion Rory McIlroy will be looking for some desert vengeance over Fleetwood this week. He is in search of a fourth Dubai Desert Classic title and this is reflected in his rapidly shortening odds this week.

McIlroy shot a quadruple bogey last week and still managed to lose by only a shot! Fleetwood is a brilliant desert exponent but he has never really shone at the Majils Course, picking up just two top-ten finishes in twelve previous starts.

Tyrell Hatton will be jetting in from Hawaii this week after decent back-to-back finishes Stateside. Reigning Open champion Brian Harman will probably be hoping for some wild gusts this week as he is one of the best wind players in the world.

The Hojgaard twins are always fun to watch while Joaquin Niemann will be hunting some world rankings points after LIV Golf’s failure to get concessions in that regard.

Past Winners

2023: Rory McIlroy (-19)
2022: Victor Hovland (-12) *playoff
2021: Paul Casey (-17)
2020: Lucas Herbert (-9) *playoff
2019: Bryson DeChamebeau (-24)

To Win Outright:

Rory McIlroy 3/1 | Tyrell Hatton 9/1 | Tommy Fleetwood 9/1 | Joaquin Niemann 18/1 | Brian Harman 18/1

Value Bets

Nicolai Hojgaard- To Win 20/1 | To Place 44/10

I’m chasing value in the upper reaches of the betting and that has led me to reigning DP World Tour Championship winner Nicolai Hojgaard. Sure, Hojgaard has failed to impress in his two previous visits here. But he is in a completely different position now and this course should suit him to the bone. Hojgaard’s last two victories have come in the UAE (including his brilliant season-ending win in Dubai). He made his Ryder Cup debut last year and he now has a PGA Tour card in his pocket. He looked rusty in Dubai Creek but that course was far more constricted than this one.

Antoine Rozner- To Win 70/1 | To Place 15/1

Antoine Rozner boasts some decent form at this course to go with a slew of other strong desert results. The Frenchman was ninth on debut at the Emirates and hasn’t missed the cut in three attempts. He won the Qatar Masters at Education City in 2021. He also won the Dubai Championship at Jumeirah’s Fire Course in 2020. Additionally, he headed into the final round of last year’s Open Championship in fourth place (meaning he should be able to handle gusty conditions should they arise). He opened with a 68 last week but couldn’t maintain the pace. I think he’s got enough desert form to suggest he could thrive this week.

The Man to Beat- Cameron Young- To Win 18/1 | To Place 39/10

I’m opting to swerve the glitzier names this week. Cameron Young will join compatriot Brian Harman in making his Dubai Desert Classic debut. The fact that he is on debut is a worry. But I’m just hoping that his mammoth driving will be able to bridge that gap. The 2021/2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year had a slightly more subdued 2023, picking up five top-ten finishes. But they included a runner-up at the WGC Match Play and a T7 at the Masters. He finished runner-up at the 2022 Open Championship and it’s that performance that really made me gravitate towards him this week.