PREVIEW: 2022 PGA Tour – Wells Fargo Championship

2021/2022 US PGA Tour
Wells Fargo Championship
TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, Maryland
5th-8th May

New home for Wells Fargo Championship

Jon Rahm proved me wrong last week with an impressive display at the Mexico Open. His long game was typically brutish but it was his putter that ultimately secured his seventh PGA Tour title.

The World No.2 looks poised to be a persistent threat as the tour enters crunch-time for those chasing Major glory. The Wells Fargo Championship started its life on tour a recently as 2003. This will be the 18th staging of this event (the 2020 edition was cancelled at the heart of the pandemic).

This year’s Wells Fargo has undergone a fairly significant facelift due to the President’s Cup. Quail Hollow- the traditional host course for this event- will play host to world golf’s second most prestigious golf tournament later this year.

This has necessitated a move to TPC Potomac, the former host of the defunct Quicken Loans National and charmingly named Booz Allen Classic.

The evolution of TPC Potomac

Previously known as TPC Avenel, TPC Potomac was once considered something of a pariah on the PGA Tour. Situated between a housing development and a sewerage works, TPC Avenal was pretty much universally despised on tour.

But the course was renamed and rebranded in the aftermath of those tawdry Booz Allen Classic days. TPC Potomac played host to the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018.

The old fairways and greens- previously laid to Poa Annua- were completely re-laid to Bentgrass. Everything has been recontoured and this course plays like a different beast now.

Previously a par 71 that measured under 7,000 yards, TPC Potomac is now a par 70 that comes in a little over 7,000 yards. Fairways are more difficult to hit and accuracy is paramount this week.

Look for accurate types this week

Only Francesco Molinari- who shot a ridiculous -21 in 2018- has been able to demolish this course. Look for accurate types with laser sights on their irons this week.

Three-time Wells Fargo Champion Rory McIlroy is the huge favourite this week despite having very little elite golf under his belt this calendar year. The markets seem to have been swayed by his remarkable final round at Augusta.

This will be his first outing since that showing and I’m happy to avoid him on a course that doesn’t reward the bombers. Speaking of bombers, Tony Finau came within a whisker of catching the tearaway Jon Rahm last week.

He shot a magnificent 63 on Sunday to pick up his first top 10 on tour this year. Could he possibly harness some of that juju and contend this week? With consistent types expected to flourish, you could look towards the likes of Corey Conners and Matthew Fitzpatrick to contend this week.

Players such as Abraham Ancer and Tyrell Hatton will be looking for some form ahead of the most important three-month window on the tour. Generally speaking, this isn’t an elite field as many of the world’s top players gear up for the next couple of months.

Past Winners

2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2020: no event due to pandemic
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Brian Harman (-10)
2016: James Hahn (-9) *playoff

To Win Outright:

Rory McIlroy 7/1 | Tony Finau 18/1 | Corey Conners 20/1 | Matthew Fitzpatrick 22/1 | Gary Woodland 30/1

Value Bets

Matthew Fitzpatrick- To Win 22/1 | To Place 48/10

Surely, it’s just a matter of time before Matthew Fitzpatrick wins his maiden PGA Tour title. TPC Potomac should suit the deadly accurate Fitzpatrick down to the bone. But I think that he has actually benefited from some added length this year. He has quietly shot up to 27th on tour in Strokes: Gained off the Tee. This has helped him rack up seven top 20 finishes in 11 starts this season. Sure, he missed the cut at the RBC Heritage. But I just feel like this course and this field should be ideal for a Fitzpatrick tilt at the title.

Sepp Straka- To Win 55/1 | To Place 12/1

Sepp Straka is a player on the rise. He broke into the world’s top 50 earlier this after seasons of middling performances on the tour. The Austrian won his maiden PGA Tour event at the Honda Classic, holding off Shane Lowry by one shot. He picked up another top 10 at the Players before missing out on a three-man playoff at the RBC Heritage. He was a 72nd hole par away from joining Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay in that remarkable playoff. He can make plenty of birdies and just needs to tighten up his approach play this week. But 55/1 looks a pretty solid bet in this truncated field.

The Man to Beat- Corey Conners- To Win 20/1 | To Place 44/10

This is me being slightly unoriginal this week. I have opted for Conners a few times when these accuracy-based courses have arisen. Conners gains about 1.06 strokes per round in the ball-striking categories over his last 50 rounds of golf. This helped him to a third at the Match-Play and a sixth at Augusta. He also finished 12th in his last start at the RBC Heritage. This week just looks like it could perfectly line up for the straight-hitting Canadian.