PREVIEW: PGA Tour – 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2022/2023 US PGA Tour
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Pebble Beach (Host Course)
Spyglass Hill
Monterey Peninsula
2nd-5th February

Jon Rahm stumbled badly on Sunday in his quest to dethrone Rory McIlroy as World No.1 (not that it would have made any difference, as the Northern Irishman held on for dear life to win in Dubai).

Nonetheless, Rahm will have felt disappointed with a tame 2-over-par final round. It just wasn’t in keeping with the Spaniard’s recent turbocharged performances.

Max Homa won the sixth title of his career and underlined his status as one of this year’s Major Championship dark horses. The tour remains on the West Coast for this year’s edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Originally named the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur, this event was first staged way back in 1937. AT&T began their long partnership with this event back in 1985.

This is a pro-am that is traditionally staged on three courses. The courses are played in rotation over the first three days. The top 60 players (and ties) and top 25 teams (and ties) will get another shot at Pebble Beach on Sunday.

Seven of the world’s top 50 players will participate in an event that has lost a little pizzazz over the last decade. Perhaps that has something to do with the spectacle: it’s not always easy to sit through the amateurs fumbling their way around the courses.

Still, I always have time for an event that allows for such cracking vistas of the beautiful Californian coastline.

Pebble Beach Golf Links

Monterrey Peninsula is the easiest course out there by some margin. Spyglass, with its narrow, tree-lined fairways, is actually the toughest. But let’s not kid ourselves, we know which course you have come to see.

Pebble Beach is one of the most iconic venues in American sport. The seaside links has hosted the US Open six times and the PGA Championship once.

What you do off the tee is largely irrelevant around Pebble. Players need to be surgical with their iron play. The tiny Poa annua greens are amongst the most intimidating green complexes in world golf.

In fact, all three courses feature Poa annua greens. 14 of the last 16 winners have ranked inside the top 9 for GIR. Also, look for strong links proponents and those with solid course credentials.

The Contenders

Former Pebble champ Jordan Spieth is a natural pick for success around Pebble Beach. He has a tremendous iron game and he can putt the lights out when necessary.

But I’m somewhat put off by his missed cut at the Sony Open. Matt Fitzpatrick looks a lot more credible this week. The reigning US Open champion is an amazing links player and will be looking to become just the fifth non-American to win this event (which is fairly insane). Viktor Hovland and Seamus Power will be looking to do the same.

Past Winners

2022: Tom Hoge
2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
2020: Nick Taylor (19)
2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)

To Win Outright:

Jordan Spieth 8/1 | Matt Fitzpatrick 10/1 | Viktor Hovland 11/1 | Tom Hoge 18/1 | Maverick McNealy 18/1

Value Bets

Seamus Power- To Win 25/1 | To Place 11/2

Seamus Power is a man worth taking a chance on this year. Sure, his iron play has been slightly below-par recently (a huge no-no for this event). But I think he has the capacity to string it together in these environs. Weather forecasts suggest cold and damp conditions. These should suit the Irishman to the bone. He finished in 9th last year (where he actually held the 36-hole lead by five shots). Despite his recent iron issues, the 35-year-old still has three top-five finished in seven starts. This included his victory at the Bermuda Championship. He will be hugely motivated with a Ryder Cup berth a distinct possibility.

Russell Knox- To Win 80/1 | To Place 17/1

This is a real ‘horses for courses’ pick in the place markets. Russell Knox just thrives on these coastal courses. He has finished 33rd or better in four of his last five starts in this event. That stretch includes a T7 and two other top-15 finishes. He arrives in decent form, finishing in the top 50 in nine of his last 14 events. Knox loves using lower trajectories to navigate his way around the gustier conditions. 17/1 to place looks inviting.

The Man to Beat- Maverick McNealy- To Win 18/1 | To Place 39/10

Maverick McNealy is shaping up nicely for success this week. He has seven out of eight cuts this season. This included four top 12 finishes (the best of which was a T7 at the Sony Open). His approach stats for the season are far from impressive. But he has that other thing that has proven crucial in this event: course form. He already has two top-fives in this event. I think he could exploit this slightly underwhelming field and mount a real challenge this week.