PREVIEW: 2021 European Tour – DP World Tour Championship

2021 European Tour
DP World Tour Championship
The Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, UAE
18th-21st November

This feels like a slightly bittersweet moment for an avid South African golf fan. I was weaned on a steady diet of European Tour golf, feasting on the epic battles between the likes of Els and Westwood. Though still secondary to the vast riches of the US PGA Tour, the tour was still far grander than its current incarnation. With that in mind, it’s slightly sad that this will be the last European Tour event ever. But the times have changed and a rebranding was inevitable. When the new season gets underway in South Africa next week, the tour will be known as the DP World Tour. It’s just going to take a little time for me to get over my naïve sentimental attachment to the previous moniker. The 2021 European Tour will conclude with the traditional season closer: the DP World Tour Championship.

This event was first staged 12 years ago, as the European Tour sought to emulate the wildly successful FedEx Cup system adopted in the States. The Race to Dubai was born and this event became the ceremonial showpiece. This year it will constitute the fourth and final Rolex Series event in a Covid-affected European Tour campaign. Next year’s rebranded Tour will once again feature five Rolex Series events (many of which will be substantially more lucrative). Jon Rahm has opted to withdraw to spend time with his family. I figured that the burly Spaniard will have felt rested enough to support the tour this week. Be that as it may, there is still an extremely heathy field consisting of the top 50 available players in the Race to Dubai standings (both Sergio Garcia and Patrick Reed have been offered special exemptions to compete this week).

Greg Norman courses have got decent play in the last few weeks. I guess it makes sense when you hold consecutive events at the same golfing estate. The Greg Norman-designed Earth Course is a slightly more difficult assignment than last week’s Fire Course (seven players shot 20-under or better last week). This week’s course is an absolute beast at 7,675 yards. Generous fairways mean that distance simply has to be favoured over accuracy. Players will need to attack the gettable par 5’s this week. The TifEagle Bermuda grass greens are large and undulating (which is fairly typical of any desert track). There are quite a few strategically placed water hazards that make this a fascinating watch. The closing stretch is comparable to any of the great climaxes in world golf. The island green 17th is followed by a wild, risk-reward par 5 18th.

As I noted earlier, two-time champion Jon Rahm will be sitting this one out this week. Not to worry, there are still a few two-time champions in attendance this week. Rory McIlroy is fresh off a stunning CJ Cup victory and he is pretty much the high watermark when it comes to desert golf. His form figures in this event read 3-5-11-1-5-2-1-9-20-4. He has to be a huge contender this week. Defending champion Matthew Fitzpatrick is the other player who has won this event on two occasions. Collin Morikawa can finish in last place this week and he will still be crowned the Race to Dubai champion. He and Billy Horschel will lead the American charge this week (Reed hasn’t quite been able to recapture his best form since recovering from illness). Disappointingly, Justin Rose and Viktor Hovland will join Rahm on the side-lines this week. This is bound to be an epic closing salvo in the history of the European Tour (gulp).

Past Winners

2020: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-15)
2019: Jon Rahm (-19)
2018: Danny Willett (-18)
2017: Jon Rahm (-19)
2016: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17)

To Win Outright:

Rory McIlroy 6/1 | Collin Morikawa 17/2 | Sergio Garcia 16/1 | Tommy Fleetwood 16/1 | Matthew Fitzpatrick 16/1

Value Bets

Bernd Wiesberger- To Win 22/1 | To Place 46/10

Wiesberger has to have a chance. The Ryder Cupper is a two-time Rolex Series champion who seemingly loves these occasions. He is also coming off a brilliant desert performance last week. He was beaten by a shot last week despite putting poorly for most of the tournament. He is perennially one of the best ball strikers on the European Tour. He just needs to have an average week on the greens to compete.

Garrick Higgo- To Win 70/1 | To Place 14/1

Despite a poor run of recent form, I think that Garrick Higgo makes perfect sense as a 70/1 outsider this week. He has enjoyed an incredible season, winning twice on the European Tour and crucially claiming his maiden US PGA Tour title. He also has some course form, finishing in a tie for 14th in this event last year. He just ticks all the boxes to contend this week. He currently ranks 9th for Driving Distance and 1st for SG: Putting. This should be a lethal combination on this long, gettable track.

The Man to Beat- Sergio Garcia- To Win 16/1 | To Place 33/10

I’m looking for value this week and I think Garcia at 16/1 just screams value. This could be a chance for him to add this event to his glittering resume. Garcia’s exceptional ball-striking make him an ideal candidate for the Earth Course. He boasts magnificent pedigree in this event, recording five top 10’s in nine trips to the desert track. In fact, he has never finished lower than 21st at the Earth Course. He also looks in decent touch, finishing in a tie for 7th last time out at the OHL Classic.