The BMW International Open | Thursday 25 June – Sunday 28 June | Golfclub Munchen Eichenried
After the excitement of the US Open a surprising number of players have chosen to head straight from the US to Germany for the BMW International Open, one of the more prestigious events on the European Tour. Given that it has been proven time and time again that players who make the journey struggle and would be better off taking a break it seems that these golfers are a rather stubborn bunch who don’t learn from their mistakes. We certainly have though and it’s going to take something special to convince us that someone who’s made the journey has a chance of being in contention this week.
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So what does that mean? Well first off we’re going to avoid backing Stenson, Kaymer and Lowry, all of whom can be ignored based on their prices. That opens the door for us to make some serious money this week, if our strategy pays off. The first step seems to be focusing on players who drive the ball straight. Over the years this has proved a vital stat although perhaps it’s not as telling as an initial glance suggests. Sure, players who do well hit a high percentage of fairways but the fairways are wide and forgiving. Focus also needs to be on GIR% and putting, two stats which will be of importance if players are going to win here. With that in mind it’s time to start looking for a winner…let’s see if we can find one this week.
To Win Outright
Henrik Stenson 15/2
Martin Kaymer 12/1
Shane Lowry 16/1
Chris Wood 18/1
Bernd Wiesberger 18/1
VALUE BETS
Darren Fichardt (75/1 a win, 16/1 a place)
It’s great to see South African golf on the up again and after Oosthuizen’s performance last week, I’m backing one of the lesser known Saffas to do well on the European Tour. While Oosthuizen’s finish may have provided the spark which has fuelled my patriotic fire, my faith in Fichardt is certainly not misplaced as he has performed well so far this year. A Top 10 in Spain and a Top 15 in Sweden will stand him in good stead when he arrives in Germany to play a course he has fared well on in the past. I’m backing Fichardt each way.
Rafael Cabrera Bello (20/1 a win, 44/10 a place)
Cabrera Bello has been making me a tidy profit lately in the 18 Hole Match-Ups but I always seem to back him at the wrong time on the Outright market. I’m hoping that all changes this week though as he seems to love the course and arrives in Germany having come close to winning in Austria a few weeks ago. On his day he’s difficult to beat, let’s hope he can string four rounds together and walk away with a well deserved win this week.
Maximilian Kieffer (28/1 a win, 62/10 a place)
Kieffer is another player who deserves a win but who struggles to string four rounds together but if he can get around that this week he’ll fare well here. In his last five starts he’s managed to finish inside the Top 10 three times and on every one of those occasions he could have finished a lot better had he not shot over-par final rounds. There’s no particular reason I’m suggesting he’ll overcome those final round blues this week, I just can’t imagine that he could slip up like that again and at this price I’m willing to take a bit of a risk based on my instincts.
TOP BET
Joost Luiten (18/1 a win, 4/1 a place)
I’ve been trying to avoid backing players who were in the States last week but that’s proved slightly more difficult than I originally thought as some of them offer more value than you’d expect. The player who looks the best bet this week, based on his price at least, is Joost Luiten and after seeing how he played in the first two rounds of the US Open you’d be foolish to not include him in your selections. He fell apart a bit over the weekend but the course layout had a lot to do with that and he’ll experience no real issues when he tees off here. I’m making an each way bet on Luiten my bet of the weekend, get on.
