Australian Racing: 2 November 2021 – Melbourne Cup & Randwick

Flemington – Melbourne Cup 

Race 7

INCENTIVISE has won nine of his twelve starts to date, with those nine victories coming on the trot, the latest of these when securing the Caulfield Cup over twelve furlongs by three and a half lengths. He hit the front at the 300M mark that day and then proceeded to stride away from the opposition. He faces a wide draw sixteen, but even this might not be enough to stop him winning “the race that stops a nation”.

VERRY ELLEEGANT is a 6yr old mare that has nine Group 1 victories to her credit and who did not have the best of luck when finishing third last time out in the Cox Plate over 2040M, just over a length behind the winner. She was slow away in that contest, but was making good late progress over the latter stages of that event. She has an even wider draw nineteen, but she should turn in another honest performance today.

TWILIGHT PAYMENT is a 9yr old gelding who won his last start in Ireland in a Group 1 race over 2816M by 0.8L and who return to defend his title, having won this race last year. He carriers an additional 2.5kg here, but by contrast to the top two selections, he has a handy draw two. The “Cup” double does not seem to be out of his reach.

SPANISH MISSION is another overseas raider. He has the distinction of just failing by a head to beat the great Stradivarius last time out over 3270M. He has however drawn wide in gate fourteen, but nevertheless should not be lightly dismissed.

Best Bet: SIX AGAIN (Race 6)

Value Bet: JOJO WAS A MAN (Race 8)

Jackpot (race 6 – 9)

Cost: R54.00

Race 6

A 4yr old and a 3yr old filly could fight out the finish to this race and complete the exacta, but the day’s best bet, SIX AGAIN is taken to lead the field home. She has only had the three runs to date, finishing second on debut and then winning over 900M at the second time of asking, before following that up with a just under a length victory last time out over 1100M. She is a speed sort and from her handy draw five, she could prove good enough to complete her hat-trick here.

SATIN RIBBONS also has her hat-trick attempt after two victories over five furlongs, the latest by one length when returning from a 19 week break, this despite her jockey putting up 0.5kgs overweight. From gate three, she could be the biggest danger to the top choice.

WARRIOR HERO stayed on well when finishing second last time out over five furlongs, just a half length behind the winner and has put in an encouraging barrier trial since then. He has cracked pole position and should be involved in the finish.

Race 7

SOUTHERN LAD had his consistency rewarded with a win by just under half a length last time out over six furlongs. He finished strongly that day to claim victory and should have no problem with the drop in trip for today’s event. He does return from 16 week rest, but has had the benefit of three barrier trial, finishing second in the latest and although drawn wideish in gate eight, he should turn in another honest performance here.

LINA’S HERO has his first run since a longer 22 week break, but did win his only barrier trial to prove his fitness. He goes for his hat-trick after winning his last two starts over seven furlongs, albeit the latest by a short-head and the form of that race has been franked. He will have to overcome a wide draw thirteen, but will get the services of ex-SA jockey Glyn Schofield, so he will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle.

VULPINE is a 5yr old mare taking on the boys, but she showed marked improvement when ending up in second place in her last outing over six furlongs, beaten just a head. She has also not fared too well with her draw, having pulled gate eleven, but on the plus side, she will get 2kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice to aid her cause.

Race 8

JOJO WAS A MAN won over 1500M three runs back and then tried to go from jump to wire before ending up in sixth spot last time out over nine furlongs, just over six and a half lengths adrift of the winner. He faces a wide draw nineteen, but should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy. Over what appears to be a more suitable journey, he is taken to be the value bet on the day’s program.

THE DENZEL won his penultimate start over a mile by 5.8L and then finished sixth last time out when dropping down to 1500M, just over two lengths off the winner. He raced up with the leaders that day, but hung out badly from the 250M mark which would have cost him valuable ground. He was also reported to be partially lame in his off-fore. He jumps from a far kinder draw four and will get 2kgs removed from his allocated weight courtesy of his claiming apprentice.

GOOD OMENS is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she is seldom far off the action and was bumped down at the start before finishing third last time out over 1500M, 3.3L behind the winner. She was returning from a 21 week break that day and is sure to put her pole position to good use.

Race 9

VIENNA RAIN followed up his penultimate run victory over six furlongs with a second place finish next time out over 1300M, just a half length behind the winner, notwithstanding being friendless in the betting markets and coming three wide into the home straight. He faces a wide draw eleven, but will have his peak outing after returning from a 20 week absence.

MOLLYCODDLE is a 4yr old filly taking on boys, but she finished third in her latest start over six furlongs, 4.3L back from the winner when returning from a 14 week rest. She had to be eased off the heels of other runners at the entrance to the home stretch that day and should have finished closer to the winner as a result. From her pole position, she should give the males a good run for their money.

TOO MUCH CAVIAR has finished second in his last two outings, the latest when 1.8L behind the winner over nine furlongs and the form of that race has stood up well with six runners out of that contest subsequently winning. He is drawn in gate nine and returns from a 21 week rest, but he has had two barrier trials, finishing second in the latest and should be included in all bets.