Neil Morrice shares all of his best bets and tips from Sunday’s racing at SHA TIN, Carlisle, and Southwell on 12 December 2021.
Take a look at Neil's video previews for the Gr 1 races below:
HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL RACES – SHA TIN, SUNDAY
Race 4 LONGINES HONG KONG VASE (Group 1)
No2 GLORY VASE
Trainer: Tomohito Ozeki – Jockey: Joao Moreira
Japan could be set for a mega afternoon, and perhaps their ace in the pack is GLORY VASE. There could be no more apt a name to put on this race’s roll of honour, and the Deep Impact entire is a huge favourite to deliver under recently crowned champion Moreira, after running Loves Only You to threequarters of a length over course and distance in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup back in April. With the latter opting to pitch for the Cup, French raider EBAIYRA could be the one to follow him home. The Aga Khan-owned Ebaiyra comes here off a light campaign, having taken out a Group 3 and a Group 2 in Paris and finished second to Broome in the Grand Prix at Saint-Cloud. She’s been given a break since disappointing at Deauville in the summer and has trained beautifully ahead of what will be veteran trainer Alain du Royer Dupre’s final runner. MOGUL made an abortive trip to California when failing to make the cut for the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He had trained well for the race, and must not be underestimated on this first run back from a break.
1st GLORY VASE, 2nd Ebaiyra, 3rd Mogul
Race 5 LONGINES HONG KONG SPRINT (Group 1)
No12 RESISTENCIA
Trainer: Takeshita Matsushita – Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Few horses have settled into the Sha Tin trackside life as well as RESISTENCIA, a five times winner in Japan who makes her first outing outside her homeland. The Daiwa Major filly has a good chance of getting onto the lead under Christophe Soumillon, a development that would make her hard to reel in. NABOO ATTACK has a better chance than his odds indicate, but needs a long, uninterrupted run if everything’s to fall right for him, but with an intelligent ride he can take home a sizeable cheque. PIXIE KNIGHT, a daughter of the brilliant Maurice, took out the Group 1 Sprinters Stakes but might find this track an altogether different test than he’s experienced before.
Prediction: 1st RESISTENCIA, 2nd Naboo Attack, 3rd Pixie Knight
Race 7 LONGINES HONG KONG MILE (Group 1)
No2 DANON KINGLY (Each Way)
Trainer: Kiyoshi Hagiwara – Jockey: Yuichi Fukunaga
Winner of an incredible 15 races in succession here, GOLDEN SIXTY sets a high bar for his foes to aim at but may be prevented by Japanese ace DANON KINGLY of going back-to-back in this race. Golden Sixty is making a habit of winning by narrow margins, the latest being by a length from Waikuku over course and distance last month. He took out his three previous races by two heads and a short head, and does not represent any value at his current price. Danon Kingly has only recently stepped up to the plate, but her huge run in Tokyo last time, when second to Schnell Meister, indicates she is still improving at a rate of knots. I fancy her to draw the sting out of the favourite, and also look to MOTHER EARTH for a frame finish at double-figure odds. She could never recover from early trouble in the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar, but didn’t have a hard race.
1st DANON KINGLY, 2nd Golden Sixty, 3rd Mother Earth
Race 8 LONGINES HONG KONG CUP (Group 1)
No4 HISHI IGUAZU ( Each Way)
Trainer: Hideyuki Nori – Jockey: Joao Moreira
LOVES ONLY YOU sets the standard following her course and distance triumph in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup in April and Breeders’ Cup Turf victory at Del Mar, and will dominate the betting handle on the final International race. But at double-figure odds the value play is her compatriot HISHI IGUAZU. This daughter of Heart’s Cry has Moreira in the irons and races for a trainer that has converted with three of his nine runners at the International meeting. Her impressive winning sequence in Japan was halted last time, but she can recover from that lapse to take home a major cheque. DUBAI HONOUR had rattled-off a fine hat-trick before running Sealiway to threequarters of a length in the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot. The William Haggas-trained gelding has made massive strides this summer and autumn, and looks a proper Group 1 horse.
Prediction: 1st HISHI IGUAZU, 2nd Loves Only You, 3rd Dubai Honour
CARLISLE
Race 4 No3 PAPA TANGO CHARLY
Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill – Jockey: Nick Schofield
PAPA TANGO CHARLY is a good prospect for connections and greatly impressed when scoring on his debut over fences at this track in the autumn. He looked better the further he travelled, and can defy a 10lb rise for those efforts.
Race 5 No6 BASS ROCK (Nap)
Trainer: Sandy Thomson – Jockey: Ryan Mania
Course winner BASS ROCK takes very strong credentials to post for this long distance handicap hurdle. His recent third to Dan’s Le Vent at Haydock reads very well, while as a lightly-raced five-year-old he has scope for further progression.
SOUTHWELL
Race 2 No3 DOCPICKEDME
Trainer: Harry Whittington – Jockey: Jack Quinlan
DOCPICKEDME should appreciate a drop back on the distance ladder on this second outing over fences. He did things in his own time at Chepstow but now wears first-time cheek pieces that can help propel him to a second win from as many visits to this course.
Race 4 No10 BRIANNA ROSE
Trainer: Martin Keighley – Jockey: James Best
BRIANNA ROSE picked up a cheque in three bumpers before chasing home prolific scorer Minella Plus at Catterick. She is certain to have learned something from that first run over jumps, and can give paper favourite Horizon D’ainay plenty to think about.
Race 6 No3 SAYADAM (Nap)
Trainer: Kim Bailey – Jockey: David Bass
With his stable really getting into gear, SAYADAM can recover the winning thread in this strongly contested novice hurdle. He had his wings clipped by Iontach Cheval when well backed at Uttoxeter, but can demonstrate that he’s better than the run indicates
