Neil Morrice shares all of his best bets and tips for Saturday’s racing coming your way from the Breeders’ Cup Word Thoroughbred Championships on 4 November 2023.
BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS SANTA ANITA BEST BETS SATURDAY
Race 3 BIG ASS FANS BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE (Grade 1)
No3 CODY’S WISH
Trainer: Bill Mott – Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Bettors will look to get off to a flier by supporting 2022 winner CODY’S WISH, whose figures of 11-1131 tell their own story. Veteran trainer Mott is abundantly happy with his five-year-old in a race that has cut up and should be the Curlin entire’s for the taking. Success would be a fifth career Grade 1. ZOZOS has also flourished this year and is carded to earn for Brad Cox, but the longshot that takes my eye is NATIONAL TREASURE. Although the Preakness Stakes winner had been beaten in three subsequent outings, he did better for the reintroduction of blinkers here early last month, and could raise his game to claim a minor cheque.
Prediction: 1st CODY’S WISH, 2nd Zozos, 3rd National Treasure
Race 4 MAKER’S MARK BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF (grade 1)
No6 INSPIRAL (Nap)
Trainer: John Gosden – Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Some outstanding English distaffers have their names on the FAMT roll of honour and INSPIRAL can join that pantheon on her final start of the year and only the second away from Newmarket. A champion at two and three, she wasn’t carded to come here until returning to her very best form to land the Prix Jacques Le Marois and Sun Chariot Stakes. That in itself is a nagging worry, but Gosden and Dettori are adamant she will stay, and everything has gone nicely to plan since she landed here. WARM HEART is a doughty foe for Aidan O’Brien’s Coolmore operation and under Ryan Moore will ensure the favourite doesn’t have things all her own way. Her figures of 111511 include victories in the Ribblesdale, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille and her credentials are rock solid. On the book, this pair should dominate.
IN ITALIAN is a talented filly that can ensure the Europeans don’t get things completely their own way, but she will need to be extra special if she’s to prevent INSPIRAL putting her name alongside the likes of Ouija Board and Midday in what could prove an epic encounter.
Prediction: 1st INSPIRAL, 2nd Warm Heart, 3rd In Italian
Race 5 PNC BANK BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT (Grade 1)
No1 GOODNIGHT OLIVE (Nap)
Trainer: Chad Brown – Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
GOODNIGHT OLIVE rates one of the safer bets to follow-up her success in the corresponding race in 2022. Favourites have an impeccable record with four out of five winning the Filly And Mare Sprints that have been run at Santa Anita. Brown’s adaptable mare looks every bit as good as she was last year, and is more than worthy of her place at the head of the market following a near miss in a Grade 1 handicap last time. Hat-trick seeker SOCIETY likes to get on with business and even though likely to find competition for the lead, can earn. YUUGIRI cut a career best figure with her latest win over six furlongs, and needs to prove she’s as good over 1400 metres if she’s to have a chance of downing the clear pick GOODNIGHT OLIVE.
Prediction: 1st GOODNIGHT OLIVE, 2nd Society, 3rd Yuugiri
Race 6 FAN DUEL BREEDERS’ CUP MILE (Grade 1)
No6 MAWJ
Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor – Jockey: Oisin Murphy
14. Of all the Breeders’ Cup races, getting a good slot in the gate is most important in the Mile. The 1,000 Guineas winner MAWJ overcame that obstacle with a spot where there’s more outside her than inside. After a comfortable success at Keeneland she took her unbeaten sequence in 2023 to four, and can now complete a famous nap hand of victories for her Emirati trainer, who is bursting with confidence over the daughter of Exceed And Excel. She’s looked superb in training through the week, and gives Godolphin its best chance of victory at the meeting. MASTER OF THE SEAS will also represent Sheikh Mohammed’s operation but may have a mountain to climb breaking from the outside post. The Dubawi gelding is a solid performer and may still be able to trouble the judge. One that has looked comfortable on the track is KELINA, one of only three French-trained runners at the meeting and a potential earner for trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias, while at elevated odds Japan’s WIN CARNELIAN is well berthed for involvement. He ran well in a Group 2 off a break last time, and should go into all exotic permutations.
Race 7 LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF (Grade 1)
No9 CLAIRIERE (Each Way)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen – Jockey: Joel Rosario
The speed factor in one of the best races of the day is provided by 17 hands giant IDIOMATIC who goes to war on a four-race winning streak. She will gobble up a large chunk of the betting handle on the contest and could start shorter than her chance warrants. Should Brad Cox’s filly get into a speed duel with the Bob Baffert-trained ADARE MANOR it might lessen both fillies’ chance of winning. The latter, a daughter of Uncle Mo, looks to make this a nap hand of victories, and being drawn next to the favourite is well placed to attack. RANDOMIZED is four from five for Chad Brown in 2023 and can also earn, but if the expected pace collapses it’s CLAIRIERE who can profit most. The five-year-old was narrowly denied in the corresponding race 12 months ago, and thought disappointing last time could easily bounce back.
Prediction: 1st CLAIRIERE, 2nd Randomized, 3rd Idiomatic, 4th Adare Manor
Race 8 LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP TURF (Grade 1)
No9 MOSTAHDAF
Trainer: John Gosden – Jockey: Jim Crowley
Although he’s been a little coltish in the mornings it’s a trait of MOSTAHDAF’s that Gosden has learned to live with. It didn’t prevent the Frankel entire storming home in the Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot, while his absence from the Champion Stakes due to soft ground can turn out to be a blessing in disguise. The five-year-old has rocked up here with an almost unblemished record in 2023 and can end his racing career in a blaze of glory as the track, the ground and the speed the race will be run should all play to his strengths. KING OF STEEL had a had race when pulling the Champion Stakes out of the fire at Ascot and one that earned Frankie Dettori a dubious suspension. The imposing grey has to negociate an unfavourable draw, and I would rather take a back seat with him, though news that he’s remaining in training is very good for the sport. Derby winner AUGUSTE RODIN has bombed on the two occasions other than Epsom that he’s travelled out of Ireland. He’s in the shop window for this final race, but though taking everything in his stride outwardly, could prove vulnerable.
UP TO THE MARK is a very solid candidate for Todd Pletcher who has won five of his last six. It’s impossible to know how his form matches up to our best horses but there’s only one way to find out, and he could earn.
ONESTO, one of just three French runners at Breeders’ Cup, is one I like and can also have a say for trainer Fabrice Chappet. His third to Ace Impact in the Arc was a cracking run and only his third of the season, suggesting there could be more to come from the son of Frankel.
Prediction: 1st MOSTAHDAF, 2nd Onesto, 3rd Up To The Mark, 4th King Of Stell, 5th Auguste Rodin
Race 10 LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC (Grade 1)
No2 ZANDON (Each Way)
Trainer: Chad Brown – Jockey: Frankie Dettori
The loss through a minor reverse of Arcangelo earlier in the week has watered down the strength of the Classic, though it remains fiercely competitive and could produce a minor shock. It seems likely that three-year-old SAUDI CROWN will go straight to the lead and set solid fractions attended closely by Bob Baffert’s ARABIAN KNIGHT. The duel, if materialising, will set things up for the closers of whom Richard Dutrow’s WHITE ABARRIO is of particular interest granted his crushing victory in the Whitney. The 110 Beyer speed figure he achieved that day tops this field. One that has impressed me on the training track is Japan’s USHBA TESORO who has looked a new broom with his seven from eight successes on dirt including the Dubai World Cup. Against that, DWC winners are 0 for 7 in the Classic, but trends are there to be broken. Ushba Tesoro is a strong pick to claim a big cheque but for value I favour ZANDON. True, he needs to turn around the Whitney form with White Abarrio, but he picked up stylishly to claim the Grade 2 Woodward last time and now has Frankie Dettori in the hot seat. The Upstart colt is a strong stayer, has a consistent profile and can outperform his price.
Prediction: 1st ZANDON, 2nd White Abarrio, 3rd Ushba Tesoro, 4th Saudi Crown, 5th Arabian Knight
Race 10 BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT
No3 CARAVEL
Trainer: Brad Cox – Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
It’s likely that the winner of this sizzling sprint will enjoy a clear run from the front, with LIVE IN THE DREAM in a good place to dominate from gate five. The Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes hero has had plenty of practice going through a gate with a bell in Epsom, and was electric when doing his obligatory test on the track here on Thursday. The Brad Cox-trained CARAVEL has had her feathers ruffled in a couple of recent races on sloppy tracks, but if bouncing back on this more suitable surface could repeat her success in this race at Keeneland last year. She has a very good draw, and can shadow Live In The Dream’s every move. The faster ground will also suit Aidan O’Brien’s AESOP’S FABLES who claimed a cheque in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time. He’s a legitimate contender and can get into the shake-up along with the Christophe Clement-trained closer BIG INVASION.
Prediction: 1st CARAVEL, 2nd Big Invasion, 3rd Live In The Dream, 4th Aesop’s Fables
Race 11 QATAR RACING BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT
No9 GUNITE (Each Way)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen – Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
The usual suspects rock up again for a new finale to Breeders’ Cup. The 2022 winner ELITE POWER had an eight-race win streak blunted last time, and along with old adversary GUNITE will have to come from behind chasing a pace likely to be set by DR SCHIVEL. Bill Mott is quietly confident that Elite Power will cope with this drop back to 1200 metres while Steve Asmussen brings GUNITE back to his optimum trip from a mile, and that is the key. NAKATOMI is interesting for Wesley Ward, but at the respective prices I’ll side with GUNITE to produce the goods on the night.
Prediction: 1st GUNITE, 2nd Elite Power, 3rd Dr Schivel, 4th Nakatomi
NEWMARKET
Race 4 No14 TIRIAC (Each Way)
Trainer: Jack Channon – Jockey: Clifford Lee
TIRIAC saw his Nottingham race washed out earlier in the week after being bought back by the Channons at the Horses In Training Sale. This is more competitive, but he’s been knocking on the door, and is a fairly handicapped winner waiting to happen.
Race 5 No1 NEW CHELSEA (Nap)
Trainer: Ralph Beckett – Jockey: Hector Crouch
NEW CHELSEA shoulders top weight in this nursery but is deserving of it. The son of New Bay has earned in each of his three outings was narrowly beaten by a subsequent winner at Newbury and makes abundant appeal on this first handicap assignment.
Race 6 No1 METAL MERCHANT (Each Way)
Trainer: Jack Channon – Jockey: David Probert
METAL MERCHANT’s narrow Ascot win has been let down by the horse he beat, but though up in the weights the Make Believe colt will enjoy the underfoot conditions as well as the stiff finish. He’s more likely to reproduce his best form than most of his opponents.
Race 7 No3 GRAY’S INN (Each Way)
Trainer: Jack Channon – Jockey: David Probert
GRAY’S INN finished fourth when staying on well in a Listed race at the Curragh. It didn’t qualify her for black type but on this occasion she should. She loves to get her feet into the ground and has been in good order at home ahead of a race her connections won last year.
ASCOT
Race 1 No2 ED KEEPER
Trainer: Sam Thomas – Jockey: Shane Quinlan
ED KEEPER should run well on handicap debut for a stable amongst the winners. He buckled down well to open his account under Rules at Bangor and has done well physically for his summer at grass.
Race 2 No5 SCARFACE
Trainer: Joe Tizzard – Jockey: Brendan Powell
SCARFACE wasn’t able to maintain his early progress last season but in fairness was highly tried. In fairness his future has always been as a chaser, and he should greatly enjoy the switch to fences while going straight for a handicap.
Race 4 No12 MIGHTY MOTH (Each Way)
Trainer: Noel Williams – Jockey: Robbie Dunne
MIGHTY MOTH could prove a surprise package in this novices’ hurdle. She improved from race to race in three bumpers last season and can take that form to a higher level now jumping hurdles.
Race 5 No7 OUR CHAMP (Nap)
Trainer: Chris Gordon – Jockey: Freddie Gordon
OUR CHAMP bolted up at Cheltenham and not surprisingly makes a swift reappearance under an 11lb higher mark. It might sound daunting, but he had the proverbial ton in hand last weekend, and can follow-up.
