Trends suggest that AFADIL and LUCCIA can surprise in the 2023 Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle.
The final day of the November meeting sees the main handicap hurdle of the meeting. Here the use of trends from previous runnings will help to reduce the field to a more manageable number.
A few of the recent winners have gone on to run well at the Cheltenham Festival in March and these include Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Menorah, Dell’Arca among others.
TRENDS
- 9/21 – Had won no more than 4 times over hurdles
- 18/21 – Had won a 2m 1f (or further) over hurdles
- 15/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years old
- 14/21 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
- 14/21 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
- 13/21 – Officially rated 140 or higher
- 13/21 – Had run at Cheltenham before
- 12/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
- 11/21 – Had run fewer than 7 times over hurdles
- 10/21 – Placed favourites
- 9/21 – Carried 11st-4lb or more
- 8/21 – Came from the top three in the betting
- 7/21 – Won their previous race
- 7/21 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
- 4/21 – carried exactly 11st-12lb
- 4/21 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
- 3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 2/21 – Winning favourites
- 2/21 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 7)
- 2/21 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 6)
- 2/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 14)
- 2/21 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
After using the trends above we are left with a three-horse shortlist: AFADIL (14/1), LUCCIA (17/2) and IBREICO LORD (5/1).
AFADIL hails from the Paul Nicholls’ stable and wasn’t beaten far in the Boodles Juvenile Hurdle at the Festival in March.
His trainer describes the horse as a tank, so he undoubtedly needed his seasonal start and should strip fitter here.
Jockey Harry Cobden, who recently signed up as racing brand ambassador for Planet Sport Bet, chose this one above Nicholls’ other runner Sonignino, which gives another nudge in the right direction.
LUCCIA is trained by Nicky Henderson (as is Iberico Lord) and has won over this trip as is a good-looking mare who has won at Listed level three times and has been highly tried in Graded races.
She has scope for further improvement, and dropping into handicap company must give her a reasonable chance here.
IBERICO LORD has stable jockey Nico de Boinville in the saddle, but that might be due to the owner rather than jockey selection.
Lack of a recent run and his preference for soft or heavy going are a couple of negatives, and I actually prefer the stable’s other runner Luccia based upon proven form.
As usual, the Greatwood is a very competitive race and we found it difficult to split Afadil and Luccia, so I am suggesting an each-way bet on both.
As ever, don’t forget to look for additional places as both selections look to be overpriced at the time of writing.
