Australian racing tips- Saturday 12 November 2022 – Kembla Grange

Best Bet: BADEN ROAD (Race 6)
Value Bet: DEFINITELY MAYBE (Race 5)

Jackpot (race 5 – 8)

Cost: R54.00

Race 5

A 4yr old filly and a 5yr old mare could fight out the finish to this race and complete the exacta, but the day’s value bet, DEFINITELY MAYBE get the nod for top spot. She finished strongly to win her maiden race last time out over six furlongs by half a length. She takes on stronger here, but she is drawn in gate six and will be having her peak run since returning from a 27-week break and may well be up to the task at hand.

THE GIFT has consistent formlines to her name and battled all the way down to the wire when finishing fourth in her latest outing over seven furlongs, 1.2L behind the winner. She is drawn one inside the top choice and will likely turn in another honest performance here.

MIL CIENTO has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three runs, the latest when third over five furlongs at this venue, just 0.7L back of the victor, but he had to be held up badly at the 300M mark and should be considered an unlucky loser. He has a handy draw two, and with better luck in running today, he should challenge for top spot.

Race 6

BADEN ROAD is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys and goes for her hat-trick after two victories over six furlongs, albeit by just a short-head in the latest, but she did come four wide into the home straight that day, costing herself valuable ground. She did have to survive an objection from the second-placed runner and returns from a 22-week rest, but she has posted two encouraging barrier trials and from draw six and with having ex-SA jockey Keagan Latham in the irons, she will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle. As such, he is made the best bet on the day’s card.

WATEGOS, on the other hand, missed out on his hat-trick when finishing fifth last time out over five furlongs, 3.7L back from the winner, but he jumped awkwardly that day and then only saw daylight at the 200M poles, before finishing off his race well. He has his first run after a slightly shorter 21-week absence but has had the two barrier trials, winning the latest and from one gate inside the top choice, he will be looking to bounce back to winning ways today.

DON LUIGI is seldom far off the action, finishing second in his latest outing over six furlongs, just a head behind the winner. He attracted plenty of betting support that day and from a useful draw four and with him having 3kgs taken off his back thanks to his claiming apprentice, he will be hoping to make amends today, notwithstanding him having his first run after an 18-week absence and not having had the benefit of a barrier trial.

Race 7

THOUSAND YEARS is a 4yr old filly taking on males, but she followed up her penultimate run victory over nine furlongs with a fifth-place finish next time out over a mile, just over three lengths off the winner, when returning from a 23-week break. She was slow away in that contest and then jumped the crossing at the 1400M mark, but still managed to finish strongly. From draw seven, she should be right up there when they hit the line.

VINCENZO jumped awkwardly and found himself towards the back of the field, forcing him to come four wide into the home straight, he then hung out over the last 150M, but still managed to win by a head when making his debut over 1500M and the form of that race has been franked. He would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected, he could be the immediate danger to the top pick, despite his wide draw eleven.

AWESOME JOHN won his maiden race last time out over a mile by a half-length, this after jumping awkwardly and coming five wide into the home stretch. He is drawn the widest of them all in gate seventeen, but given his style of racing, he is likely to be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the front runners over the latter part of the race and should be included in all bets.

Race 8

Two 4yr old fillies could dominate the finish to this race and secure the exacta, but ROSIE IMPACT is taken to find herself in the winner’s box. She had her consistency rewarded with a just under a half-length victory last time out over 2100M when racing just behind the leaders and then kicking clear of the opposition at the 200M mark, before holding off the chasing pack in the dash down to the line. She has pulled gate five and could be the one that they all have to beat.

YOUTHFULL won her penultimate start over a mile and then finished up in fourth place in her latest outing over the same journey, just under a length and a half adrift of the winner, but she was crowded in the latter stages and should have finished closer to the winner as a result. She will have to negotiate draw nine, but she should keep the former honest.

ONEMORE SAPPHIRE made good late progress when finishing third last time out over nine furlongs, four lengths behind the winner and on that effort, he should enjoy the extra ground on offer here. The gelding is drawn wider in gate eleven, but he should be doing his best work late.