Australian racing tips – Saturday 15 October 2022 – Randwick

Best Bet: NATURE STRIP (Race 7)

Value Bet: FINEPOINT (Race 10)

Jackpot (race 7 – 10).

Cost: R54.00  

Race 7.

NATURE STRIP is a nine time Group 1 winner, including his penultimate run victory over five furlongs at Royal Ascot, where he trounced some of the best sprinters in the world. On his return to Australia, he won a Group 2 event over 1100M by just under a length and a half to prove that his travels had not taken a toll on his performance. He sat just behind the leaders that day and then pounced at the 350M mark to win going away. The gelding will have to negotiate draw twelve, but this should not be an issue for champion jockey James McDonald.

LOST AND RUNNING won his last start, a Group 2 race over six furlongs by a neck, despite coming five wide into the home straight. He struck the front at the 200M mark and then fought off all the late challengers in the dash down to the wire. He did however finish third to the top choice in his penultimate run, 1.4L behind the former and as he is 2.0kgs worse off at today’s weights, he may have to settle for the same result. He did finish fourth in this race last year and is drawn better in gate seven, so he could complete the exacta.

PRIVATE EYE won his last outing, a Group 2 event over today’s sprint trip by 2.3L, when returning from a sixteen week rest. He jumped awkwardly in that contest, but delivered a powerful finish to mow down the opposition over the closing stages. From his kinder draw three, he should be involved in the finish.

Race 8.

MR MOZART has cracked pole position and missed out on his hat-trick after victories over 1500M and seven furlongs when finishing second in a Group 2 event over 1300M, just a head behind the winner, when returning from a 19 week rest, but he had nothing go his way that day. He was crowded shortly after the start and overraced in the early stages, resulting in him having to be steadied off the heels of other runners at the 1000M mark, then hung out in the middle stages forcing him to race three wide without cover, before coming four wide into the home stretch. In addition, he was reported to have been cut into and also lost a off-fore shoe. All in all, a run to be ignored.

Two 4yr old fillies could chase him home with the slight preference going to ESPIONA who is seldom far off the action, finishing fourth in her latest outing in a Group 2 race over seven furlongs, one and a half lengths back from the victor, but she had to be checked at the six furlong pole and then hung in all the way down the home straight. She has her peak run after returning from a 21 week rest and faces a wide draw fourteen, but she should use her early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy.

STARTANTES was slow away and did not get the clearest of passages in the home stretch, having to be held up at the 150M mark, before ending up in eleventh place last time out in a Group 2 contest over seven furlongs, 3.8L off the winner. She was also cut into on both of her hind legs. From a handy draw two, she should be included in all bets.

Race 9.

ELLSBERG had his consistency rewarded with a dead-heat victory last time out in a Group 1 race over a mile at this track. He raced just behind the leaders and once seeing daylight at the 230M mark, he finished strongly to get up to shares the spoils. He could be considered an unlucky loser that day as he shirted out at the 25M mark. From a useful gate three, he could provide jockey Brendon Avdulla with a quick double in the day’s Jackpot.

AYRTON has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three runs, the latest when second over 1300M, just a length adrift of the victor. He was returning from a 15 week spell that day and showed plenty of toe, before battling all the way down to the wire. He jumps from gate seven and is likely to adopt similar tactics today and could prove hard to reel in over the closing stages.

SIBAAQ was returning from a slightly shorter fourteen weeks when second last time out over seven furlongs, 0.8L behind the winner, but he raced wide without cover on that occasion and then came the widest of them all into the home straight, so that effort was encouraging. He is sure to put his pole position to good use.

Race 10.

With the late scratching of one of her main rivals, the door may have opened for today’s value bet FINEPOINT to chalk up her fifth career victory. She is taken to lead a Chris Waller trifecta, with her two stable companions to follow her home. She has won two of her last three starts and finished third in the other, the latest over seven furlongs by 0.8L, when returning from a 15 week rest. She kicked clear at the 220M mark that day and then stayed on well over the latter stages. From her cozy draw two, she should be right up there when they hit the line.

POLLY GREY tried to go from gun to tape before ending up in eighth spot last time out over 2100M, 3.3L behind the winner. She gets draw six and on that last effort, she should appreciate the drop in journey.

GRACE AND HARMONY has finished second in two of her last three outings and jumped awkwardly, but finished well to post a 1.8L defeat last time out over this c&d. She will have to overcome a wide gate thirteen, but nevertheless, she makes a solid back-up for the yard.