Australian racing tips – Tuesday 11 October 2022 – Newcastle

Best Bet: SO DAZZLING (Race 8)

Value Bet: SIR KERM (Race 5)

Jackpot (race 5 – 8).

Cost: R54.00  

Race 5.

SIR KERM won by one length over six furlongs at this track when making his debut. He raced just behind the leaders and came three wide into the home straight that day, but then stayed on well over the closing stages, suggesting that the extra ground on offer here should not be an issue. He would have learnt from that experience and with the natural improvement that can be expected, he could be the one that they all have to beat, despite having to deal with the widest draw of them all in gate twelve. He should use his early gate speed to move across without expending too much energy and is taken to be the value bet on the day’s card.

CZAR won over five furlongs three runs back and then put his disappointing penultimate run over 1100M behind him when finishing third next time out over the same sprint distance, just 0.7L behind the winner, when returning from a 21 week break. It should be noted that he jumped awkwardly and then had to be eased off the heels of other runners at the 500M mark that day, so that effort was encouraging. From his kinder draw six, he should be right up there when they hit the line.

FULLER followed up his penultimate run victory over six furlongs with a nineth place finish next time out over 1300M, just under four and a half lengths back from the victor. The gelding was returning from a 20 week rest that day and from a handy draw three, he should not be easily overlooked.

Race 6.

There are four unraced runners in the field, so as is always the case in these types of races, a keen eye should be kept on the betting markets to get some indication as to whether any of the connection believe that they can win first time out. Any betting support for a runner or runners should be respected. Of the raced runners BETTER NOT BITTER may prove to be the best. He finished third first time out over seven furlongs, but that was in Ireland and then third in his first run in Australia over the same journey, just over three lengths adrift of the winner, when returning from a 57 week break. He overraced in the early and middle stages of that contest and then came five wide into the home stretch. He has a wideish draw eight, but the fact that his connections have brought him back into racing after such a lengthy absence would seem to suggest that they believe that he still has something more to offer them.

POETIC DRAMA is a 4yr old filly taking on the boys, but she has posted two solid last efforts, the latest when fifth over seven furlongs, two and a half lengths behind the winner. She was crowed and had to be eased at the 300M pole that day and will have her peak run here after returning from a 15 week rest. From gate seven, she will have 1.5kgs taken off her back thanks to her claiming apprentice, Zac Lloyd, son of ex-SA champion jockey, Jeff Lloyd.

FLOATING has finished closer to the winner in each of his last three runs, the latest when second over six furlongs, just a length adrift of the victor. He produced a powerful finish that day after having to be eased at the 400M mark and then switched at the 300M pole. He has his peak run since returning from a longer 27 week absence and will have to overcome a wide draw nineteen, but the gelding will have ex-SA jockey Keagan Latham in the irons, so will get all the necessary assistance from the saddle.   

Race 7.

COOL LAD is seldom far off the action and finished fourth in his latest outing over 1300M, 0.8L behind the winner. He only saw daylight at the 300M mark that day, but finished off his race well and on that effort, he should appreciate the extra distance on offer here. He jumps from gate five and looks to be the one to side with.

PERFECT THOUGHT won his penultimate start over seven furlongs and was bumped at the 1000M mark before finishing well to end up in fourth place next time out over seven furlongs, four and a half lengths behind the winner. The colt is drawn one outside the top choice and should keep him honest.

CONCOCTED has cracked pole position and came four wide into the home straight last time out when tenth over 1300M, 2.2L back from the winner. His overall form is solid and he should be included in all bets.

Race 8.

The day’s best bet, SO DAZZLING is a 3yr old filly taking on males, but she has only had the two runs to date, finishing fifth over seven furlongs first time out and then made the expected improvement to win by 0.8L next time out when stepping up to nine furlongs. She was forced to race four and five wide during the entire race that day, but was still able to kick clear of the opposition at the 200M mark. She would have come on further with that run under her belt and from a wide gate fifteen, given her style of racing, she is likely to be dropped out of it in the early stages and then start to pick off the front runners over the latter part of the race.

SKY ACE has won two of his last three outings and finished second in the other, the latest over nine furlongs when putting 4.8L between himself and the balance of the field. He went from jump to wire that day and from a wide draw nine, he is likely to adopt similar tactics here and could emerge as the biggest danger to the top pick.

MIRACLE SPIN has consistent formlines to his name and was slow away, but nevertheless finished strongly to end up in fourth spot in his latest outing over 1500M, 2.3L off the winner. The gelding has a wide draw thirteen to deal with, but he should be still involved in the finish.