The two most successive sides in Champions Cup history clash at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday in the weekend’s first semi-final. It doesn’t get much bigger than this.
Saturday 29 April
To Win
Leinster 27/100 | Draw 22/1 | Toulouse 3/1
Handicap
Leinster (-8.5) 17/20 | Toulouse (+8.5) 17/20
Frighteningly, Leinster have looked even better this campaign than they were last season, again having made no secret of their intention to land that illusive fifth European star. The Irish juggernaut earned their last title back in 2018 and have since appeared in two Grand Finals, the last of which coming in last year’s last-gasp 21-24 defeat to a phenomenal La Rochelle outfit in Marseille.
Leinster’s second stringers copped a heavy final round loss to the Bulls in the URC last week, the side’s first of the season – an astonishing stat underlining their uncanny dominance. They’ll be back at full strength for this one though, and even the absence of one Jonathan Sexton shouldn’t hamper their efforts at home – especially given the fact that the season finale is set for the same venue.
🤔 | What's your favourite Leinster v Toulouse moment?
— Leinster Rugby (@leinsterrugby) April 25, 2023
Was it Brian O'Driscoll scoring the crucial try in the 2011 semi-final?🔥#LEIvTOU #HeinekenChampionsCup pic.twitter.com/EUm45LXRtH
Toulouse’s loss at Stade Francais on the weekend may have reduced their Top 14 lead to just a single point, but there’s no question that the most successful club in the competition’s history will lift themselves here.
Like their opposition this week, the French giants boast a wealth of seasoned internationals in their ranks that have seen and done it all before on the game’s biggest stages. That kind of experience can’t be bought and should ensure this one is decided by the tiniest of margins, though the home ground factor may ultimately work against Ugo Mola’s charges.
Verdict: Toulouse on the plus
With rain expected, the accuracy of both sides’ tactical kicking games will be crucial – and Toulouse may just have the edge in this department given Sexton’s absence.
In the end though, the Leinstermen should have enough to claim a slim victory and book their place in the tournament decider.
