Gary Lemke has a look at both ends of the Premier League as the race for the title and the scrap to avoid the drop heat up and highlights some stats to help inform your EPL bets.
Two massive developments at either end of the English Premier League this past week. Firstly, Arsenal dropped points at Anfield, which means that with them still to play Manchester City, should City win all their remaining 9 games they would likely overtake the Gunners, despite the current six-point gap.
But, City won’t win all nine. Two weeks ago, I encouraged punters to take the Arsenal win-draw double over successive matches: to beat Leeds and draw with Liverpool. That came home at 4/1.
That’s the thing with the English Premier League, the toughest of all to predict in the world. Just like any other sport, it requires a lot of analysing, and sometimes you have to actually throw form out the window. Arsenal were going for 8 straight wins in a row, which is 24 points out of 24. That’s basically unheard of in a season. So, for me it was a no-brainer that they’d drop points at Anfield, and I predicted the draw.
Should Man City beat Leicester (h), Arsenal (h), Fulham (a), West Ham (h), Leeds (h), Everton (a), Chelsea (h), Brighton (a) and Brentford (a) City will likely be champions again. But history says they will drop points. And, they’re still involved in the FA Cup and the Champions League, so there’s plenty of twists and turns ahead! They’re 15/20 to win the League, while Arsenal are 11/10. I know which horse I will be backing.
🗣️ "You ask them at the start of the season for sure it was like this, so nothing has changed."
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) April 14, 2023
Mikel Arteta's reaction to Opta's predictor having Manchester City the most likely to win the Premier League now pic.twitter.com/Fp4UK7LWRN
At the other end of the table things are hotting up.
Leicester, who won the League as rank outsiders in 2015-16, are in real danger of being relegated. They have gambled with one last throw of the dice by replacing the sacked Brendan Rodgers with Dean Smith and bringing in Chelsea legend John Terry as an assistant.
The pair first worked together at Aston Villa, so there need not be any early morning get to know coffees. They have to hit the ground running.
Their first task is away to Manchester City. Good luck with that.
Three teams are odds-on to be relegated – Southampton (1/7), Nottingham Forest (36/100) and Leicester (4/6) – while Everton are 7/4 to go down.
I suppose Leeds, Bournemouth and West Ham are also in the mix given they’re only 3 points above the drop zone, but I fancy the Hammers will pull clear of that congestion. I’d be worried if I was a Bournemouth fan given what I say next.
Terry’s role at Leicester will be even more important than head coach Smith’s. Terry is one of the EPL’s great centre backs and he has one job at Leicester – to stop the goals being conceded.
The thing is, one could see this coming when Leicester didn’t go into the transfer market in January to their stalwart goalkeeper and captain Peter Schmeichel and star upcoming defender Wesley Fofana. They sold two of their best assets without replacing them, and are paying the price.
In 12 EPL games since the World Cup finished in December, Leicester have failed to keep even one clean sheet. That’s why they are where they are. Terry’s job is clear – to plug the defensive leaks.
Should he succeed then Leicester can actually climb to safety. I say this because they have scored 40 goals this season. That’s more than every team from Fulham in 10th downwards, including Chelsea (29 goals). It’s clear where Leicester’s problems lie, and if Terry can work his magic – and there’s no better man for the job – all is not yet lost.
Some interesting stats I’ve come across ahead of this week’s games, which hopefully will help you with your selections.
Chelsea In The Mire
Chelsea, beaten 2-0 by Real Madrid in the Champions League, have now gone four games without scoring a goal – their worst sequence since 1993. They last won a game seven matches ago. Brighton (52 goals this EPL season) are up next at Stamford Bridge and won the reverse fixture 4-1.
Lunchtime Shenanigans – Beware!
The Saturday lunchtime kick-off this weekend is at Villa Park where Aston Villa play Newcastle. This early (12.30pm) kick-off often springs an upset result, while some teams develop trends. Last week I reminded you that Liverpool are zero from six such kick-offs this season, while Man United had won three from three and were at home to Everton, United duly won 2-0 but were as big as 6/10 for the win. Villa have played two early kick-offs this season, winning one and losing one. But they have shared nine goals in those games, so expect a few goals in this one too.
72/1 Away Side Bomb? Unlikely!
There have never been more than six away wins in any 10-game round of matches this EPL season, highlighting how difficult it is to win away from home. The season averages out at between three and Four away wins out of every 10 games. The away teams this round are Newcastle (vs Villa), Palace (vs Southampton), Fulham (vs Everton), Bournemouth (vs Tottenham), Brentford (vs Wolves), Brighton (vs Chelsea), Leicester (vs Man City), Arsenal (vs West Ham), Man United (vs Forest) and Liverpool (vs Leeds). Six teams – Newcastle, Palace, Brighton, Arsenal, Man United and Liverpool – are all favourites to win away (72/1 atc).
Tottenham haven’t kept a clean sheet for their last five games. They’re due one – and they host 15th-place Bournemouth this weekend.
United To Concede?
Man United have kept two clean sheets in a row, the longest current streak. Three times earlier in the season they had two successive, before conceding. They’re likely to concede in at least one of their next 2 games, away to Forest and home to Brighton.
Do-Or-Die For Leicester
Leicester have not kept a clean sheet for all 12 matches since they returned from the World Cup break. They have now signed defensive legend John Terry as an assistant coach. They’ve got Man City away next, but they will be fully focused on their following three games, which are against Wolves, Leeds and Everton. Those games will decide their fate. What odds at least two clean sheets?
1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0
There have been 56 1-0 scorelines in the EPL this season, the most common result by as many as 13 matches. There have also been 43 2-1s, 39 2-0s, 31 1-1 draws and 21 0-0 draws.
