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GARY LEMKE’S FIVER + 1: D-Day for Dricus, upsets galore at AFCON and more!

All eyes will be on the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto where Dricus du Plessis faces Sean Strickland at UFC 297. Elsewhere, AFCON has been full of surprise results, the Australian Open enters its business end and more!
Dricus du Plessis
Image: Shaun Roy/BackpagePix

All eyes will be on the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto where Dricus du Plessis faces Sean Strickland at UFC 297. Elsewhere, AFCON has been full of surprise results, the Australian Open enters its business end and more!

Two women looking excitedly at cellphone

DU PLESSIS HAS SOUTH AFRICA BEHIND HIM

“Suid Afrika, hulle weet nie wat ons weet nie.” The world might not know, but South Africans have known that Dricus du Plessis is a UFC champion-in-waiting and this weekend he comes up against Sean Strickland for the universal middleweight belt.

Du Plessis has said that he’s prepared to die in the ring and although the tale of the tape suggests they are evenly matched, the South African just looks bigger. Strickland has 28 wins and five defeats and the challenger 20 wins and two losses. The build-up to UFC 297 (this main event is around 5am on Sunday) has been acrimonious, but of the two Du Plessis comes across as being mentally stronger.

And at this level of all sport, they call that the “one percent”. That “one percent” is often the difference between winning and losing. Hollywoodbets has Strickland the marginal favourite at 17/20 and Du Plessis at 19/20.

FOREST FACING UPHILL STRUGGLE

The Premier League sees five matches being played this weekend and there are no real standout fixtures on paper. Nottingham Forest travel to Brentford, and need to win given they’re likely to be docked points for breaching FFP rules.

Whatever happens in these five games, Liverpool can’t be headed at the top of the table as both Manchester City and Aston Villa are not in action.

In fact, if Liverpool beat Bournemouth, even without Mo Salah. They will go five points clear of City. The banana skin Saturday lunchtime kickoff sees Arsenal host Crystal Palace. My double for the day (at 23/10) is wins for Brentford and Liverpool.

TOSS CRUCIAL IN AT LEAST TWO SA20 GAMES

The Paarl Royals have emerged as favourites in the SA20 League as formlines start to appear after the first few rounds. They won their first three matches, but things change quickly.

There are four matches straddling this weekend (Friday to Sunday) and in this format of the sport, one would need to be either brave or foolish – or both – to confidently call the winners. I think the toss will be crucial in Friday’s 17:30 start between MI Cape Town and Paarl Royals. I’ll go as far as to say whoever bats first will win.

On Saturday, DSG host Sunrisers Eastern Cape, while the Joburg Super Kings take on Pretoria Capitals. Here too, I’d back the team batting first. Sunday sees a quick turnaround, but this time it’s Paarl Royals who host MI Cape Town.

AFCON 2023 FULL OF UPSETS

Why is it AFCON 2023 and not AFCON 2024 given the showpiece event is being held in January 2024? Simply, because it’s the same as Tokyo 2020 was held in 2021. Originally the event was supposed to be held in the designated year but firstly Covid-19 forced the Tokyo postponement, while the poor weather in the Ivory Coast meant the 2023 Afcon was moved to 2024.

In terms of marketing, sponsorship and printed merchandise, the events all revert to their original naming. On the field, there are another three matches every day until next Wednesday. Some results have resembled a lottery – Namibia beating Tunisia being one example – and on Sunday the Namibians are back in action, this time against Bafana Bafana.

Surely lightning won’t strike twice? Last week we tipped Senegal to win the event and they started with a 3-0 victory, but next face Cameroon, where Man United’s Andre Onana will hope to start in goal for the Indomitable Lions. If not, the tea cups will be flying in the dressing room.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN GETS TO BUSINESS END

As of the time of writing, a few big trees had fallen at the Australian Open – the women’s No3 and No5 seeds in particular – and as always is the nature at these tennis Grand Slams the most important thing is being around for week two.

That might seem obvious enough which is why we hear players saying, “we’re taking it game by game”. However, there’s more to it. More than one sapping three (women) and five-setters (men) in the Melbourne heat in the first few rounds will catch up with you later in the tournament.

In working out your bets for the event, have a look at who had an easy week one. In winning three matches, women’s No2 seed Aryna Sabalenka dropped only five games and looked in ominous form.

MET COUNTDOWN GATHERS MOMENTUM

Racing’s big news of the week was the announcement that star four-year-old Charles Dickens has been retired to stud, fresh from his win in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate. He therefore drops out of next week’s WSB Cape Met, where See It Again is now as short as 46/100 favoiurite with Hollywoodbets.

The barrier positions were made on Wednesday night and despite drawing 11 out of 13, trainer Michael Roberts doesn’t see it as any setback, given the long back straight and experienced jockey Piere Strydom in the irons. I can’t wait for next week.

The Hollywood Syndicate, which has hit 500 career winners, has some nice runners on the day, including Lion Rampart, Isivunguvungu, Happy Chance, Asiye Phambili and others. They have Anfield’s Rocket, at 50/1, in the Met. But that’s all a discussion for next week. Tick, tock.

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