We preview the Masters 1000 Miami Open matches featuring Alex Zverev vs Casper Rudd as well as Daniel Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz.
2022 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals- 31st March
Alex Zverev (2) (31/100) vs Casper Rudd (8) (47/20)
2018 Miami runner-up Alex Zverev is coming off a pretty amazing 2021 campaign. Sure, he never reached a Grand Slam final throughout the year. But he did win both Olympic Gold and the season-ending ATP Finals.
That complimented his two Grand Slam semi-final appearances pretty nicely. Considering that level, his 2022 results have been pretty mundane. 14-4 doesn’t look like a bad return for the year. But the manner of his defeats have been alarming. A straight-sets defeat to Denis Shapovalov in the 4th round of the Aussie Open set a bad precedent for the year. He then lost in the Open Sud de France final as the top seed for the tournament.
He was then unceremoniously ejected from the Mexican Open after smashing his racquet on the umpire’s chair during a doubles encounter. This must have affected the German who would lose his opening match to the unheralded Tommy Paul at Indian Wells. So, he really needed a solid performance here to regain some of his lost momentum. He has benefited from a fairly hospitable draw as he aims to reach just his 2nd semi-final of the year.
Much Like Zverev, Casper Rudd is fresh off an extremely productive 2021. He won a whopping five titles, making his maiden ATP Finals appearance.
He made legitimate history in the process, becoming the first Norwegian to be ranked inside the top ten in the world. But a little closer scrutiny should tell you what you need to know about his achievements relative to Zverev.
All nine of his career ATP Finals have come at ATP 250 level. He picked up his 7th title earlier this year in a pretty thin Argentina Open. He operates in a similar way to Diego Schwartzman, accumulating plenty of points in slightly smaller, satellite events. This is highlighted by the fact that he has a 4-15 record against players who were ranked inside the top 10 at the time of their meeting.
He is yet to progress pass the 4th round at a Grand Slam. He has had a pretty comfortable run this week, beating a heavily strapped Cameron Norrie in his last match.
Verdict: Zverev to win in straight sets at 87/100- Zverev leads the head-to-head against Rudd 2-0, beating the Norwegian twice in 2021 (both of these were straight-sets victories in Masters 1000, hardcourt events). I expect Zverev to dominate with a semi-final in sight. His first-serve is a huge weapon and he should have too much firepower for Rudd. Rudd’s top 10 ranking is slightly misleading and I can’t see him taking down the German. Even if the courts aren’t lightening quick, Zverev is an accomplished clay-court player who can play at multiple tempos.
Daniel Medvedev (1) vs Hubert Hurkacz (8)
It’s kind of hard to fathom what frame of mind Danil Medvedev must be in at the moment. At first glance you might think he feels terrific. He is the current US Open champion and he is one match victory away from displacing Novak Djokovic as the World Number One. But despite his progression, 2022 has probably been the most traumatic year of Medvedev’s career.
He endured that gargantuan breakdown in the Aussie Open final, with an ill-advised rant with the chair umpire virtually signalling his downfall. He then lost again to Nadal in the semi-finals at Acapulco. He then lost to Gael Monfils in the early stages at Indian Wells. So, despite coming into this event with a decent 13-4 record for the year, Medvedev probably feels like he has plenty to prove. But he is yet to drop a set this year after working out the tricky Jerome Brooksby. He won ten of the last eleven games to once again showcase his North American hardcourt prowess.
Pole Hubert Hurkacz continued his impressive title defence with a solid straight-sets win against big-serving South African Llyod Harris. He really needed to hang in there during a tense opening set that could have gone either way.
Hurkacz has blown hot and cold the entire season. He helped Poland reach the semi-finals of the ATP Cup with a brilliant display in the group stages. He also reached the semi-final in Dubai before running into an inspired Andrey Rublev. But in amongst that he suffered early exits from the Aussie Open and Rotterdam Open.
He was once again dismantled by Rublev in Indian Wells last week. But he seems to have found his comfort zone in Miami this week, hitting plenty of aces in his quest to complete a highly unlikely back-to-back victory.
Verdict: Medvedev to win in three sets- This will be the 4th meeting between these two. Medvedev leads the head-to-head 2-1. All of those matches came last year and all those matches went the distance. Medvedev overcame the Pole in three tight sets when they last met at the season-ending ATP Finals. That leads me to believe this could also go all the way. There might be some tension in Medvedev’s racquet with the World Number ranking in play. But I still think he has the courtcraft necessary to win in three.
