Damien Kayat previews Grigor Dimitrov vs Stan Wawrinka and Bianca Andreescu vs Marketa Vondrousova in the round of 64 matches of the ATP/WTA Italian Open, on the 12th of May 2023.
2023 WTA/ATP Tour
ATP 1000/WTA 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico, Rome (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 64 Matches – 12th May
ATP 1000
Grigor Dimitrov 81/100 | Stan Wawrinka 97/100
This is one of the early glamour ties of this year’s Italian Open. 31-year-old Grigor Dimitrov has battled with injury and form over the past few seasons. It’s slightly depressing to think of the time that he was referred to as ‘Baby Fed’.
Still, he has won eight ATP Tour titles and seems to be healthy again. Dimitrov has never really been one for the grind of clay-court tennis. I see him as almost a male Azarenka, dominating on the hard surfaces and gritting his teeth through this part of the year.
He has only played two clay-court finals in his career (winning his only clay-court title at the 2014 Romanian Open). He has never gone beyond the 4th round of the French Open and has never reached a Masters 1000 final on clay.
He is 11-8 for the season, with his best result a semi-final on the quick Rotterdam surfaces. He will need to serve well in order to be competitive on this surface.
38-year-old Stan Wawrinka is fresh off an impressive victory against powerhouse Belarusian Ilya Ivashka. He hit 26 winners and only committed seven unforced errors.
It was a statement of intent from one of the premier clay-court players of his era. Wawrinka is a two-time Roland Garros finalist (winning the title in 2015). He has also reached the final of all three ATP 1000 clay-court events (winning the Monte-Carlo title in 2014).
He reached the final here a whopping 15 years back. And that is the drawback. This obviously isn’t the same Wawrinka who tussled with the ‘Big Three’ on a regular basis. He has won 12 out of 21 matches this season, reaching the quarterfinals in Rotterdam and Marseille.
But his best performance was arguably a gritty round of 16 run at Indian Wells (where he accounted for Danish wunderkind Holger Rune). He has looked competitive- if unremarkable- on clay this year and will be hoping to use that Ivashka performance as a launchpad to success.
Verdict: Wawrinka to win in three sets at 34/10
Wawrinka leads this epic rivalry 7-5. However, it was the Bulgarian who won when they last met at the 2020 Mexican Open. This is an interesting clash between two of the most beautiful single-handed backhands in the game.
I just feel that Wawrinka has slightly more variety and will be able to change the rhythm of the match when necessary. Dimitrov can become a bit one-paced- hence his struggles on these surfaces. Still, I think this match could go all the way to three sets.
WTA 1000
Bianca Andreescu 2/1 | Marketa Vondrousova 36/100
This promises to be a fascinating clash of styles. Big-hitting Canadian Bianca Andreescu has struggled to reach the heights that saw her claim that 2019 US Open title.
Injuries and personal issues have seen her struggle to string together consecutive tournaments. Injuries have continued to plague her this year. She withdrew from the semi-final of the Hua Hin Championships and recently had to withdraw from the final 16 in Miami.
She returned to action in Madrid and seemed to be cruising against Wang. But she crumbled and ultimately lost that first-round match. Was that capitulation due to injury or was it merely an extension of her broader clay-court issues?
The big-hitter has never gone beyond the 2nd round of the French Open and is yet to play in a clay-court final. She should theoretically play well on clay: she has power and excellent variety. I just think her body is not well suited to the vagaries of clay.
Still, she did reach the quarterfinals here last year in her best ever clay-court performance.
23-year-old Marketa Vondrousova plays a far different game to Andreescu (minus the fact that they both love drop-shots). Vondrousova is your prototypical defensive baseliner, looking to absorb pressure and force opponents into errors.
That served her well in her run to the 2019 French Open final. Vondrousova- a Silver Medalist at the 2020 Olympics- was forced to miss most of 2022 due to injury.
She has made steady progress this year, reaching the semi-finals of the Linz Open. She then took down a host of big names in back-to-back 4th round runs at the ‘Sunshine Double’ (Jabeur, Pliskova, Kudermetova).
She pushed Linette to three sets in Madrid and she just ground out a win- in true Vondrousova fashion- against Kaia Kanepi. She is amongst the best returners in world tennis and just needs her erratic serve to cooperate.
Verdict: Vondrousova to win in straight sets at 88/100
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Andreescu will look to set the pace while the nimble Vondorusova will sit in the pocket and look to counterpunch. I do hope to see a few crazy net duels between these two masters of the drop-shot.
But I’m ultimately leaning towards Vondrousova. I think the topspin on her forehand will make it difficult for Andreescu to flatten out her groundstrokes. Lingering injuries also make Andreescu hard to back (even at this price).
