We take a look at the two intriguing Hamburg European Open clashes between Alex Molcan vs Borna Coric as well as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Lorenzo Musetti.
2022 ATP Tour
ATP 500 Series
Hamburg European Open
Am Rothenbaum, Hamburg, Germany (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarterfinals- 22nd July
Alex Molcan (11/10) vs Borna Coric (8/11)
24-year-old Slovak Alex Molcan is developing a reputation as one of the most exciting, under-the-radar clay-court players in the game. He has won over 70% of his career matches on clay. The lefty looks like a natural successor to Fernando Verdasco.
He has a mammoth forehand and he seems built for this surface (all three of his ATP Finals have come on clay). He has already reached finals in Marrakech and Lyon this year, picking up massive victories against the likes of Khacahnov and Auger-Aliassime in the process.
A 3rd round run at Wimbledon seemed to indicate a growing maturity. And he is fresh off another huge performance, taking down defending champion Pablo Carreno Busta in the round of 16.
He showed a lot of fortitude against Carreno Busta, saving an incredible 13 of 16 break-points in the match.
It’s been a long road back for 25-year-old Croatian Borna Coric. He looked like one of the most promising players in world tennis circa 2018. He helped Croatia win the Davis Cup and defeated Roger Federer to claim the Halle title.
But the former top 15 player has struggled with debilitating injuries over the years- starting with a serious back injury in 2019. 2021 saw him suffer a terrible shoulder injury that side-lined him for over a year. This year has been all about reintegration for the unfortunate Coric.
His first-round victory over Talon Griekspoor took his win-loss record for the season to 10-10. He will feel somewhat buoyed by his recent Challenger success in Parma.
He absolutely decimated the field, showcasing his ability to perform on this surface. But the hardcourt specialist is going to have to elevate his performance to take down the in-form Molcan.
The Verdict: Molcan to win in straight sets at 9/4- This will be the first career meeting between these two. It will essentially boil down to a battle between Molcan’s forehand and Coric’s backhand.
Coric is known for having a comparatively weak forehand by modern standards. I expect Molcan to exploit that, perhaps going inside-out to expose Coric’s running forehand.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (4/6) vs Lorenzo Musetti (6/5)
I feel fairly stupid after backing journeyman Jozef Kovalik to cause a possible upset against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
To be fair, it’s hard to tell which version of Fokina you are going to get. He rose to prominence earlier this year with his herculean run to the Monte-Carlo Masters final. But his form dipped dramatically in the aftermath of that result. But it would seem that the ultra-aggressive Spaniard has brought his A-game this week. He has also survived a pretty tricky early draw.
He beat Botic van de Zandschulp in a schizophrenic encounter characterized by multiple breaks of serve. But he was more impressive against Kovalik, destroying the Slovak in a straight-sets win. Fokina won a staggering 88% of his first-serve points in that Kovalik match.
That’s impressive for a player not known for dominant serving displays. Fokina is far more renowned for his ability to hit sharp, incisive returns. This means that his game must be in a good space this week.
20-year-old Lorenzo Musetti is the latest NextGen star to emerge from Italy. He enjoyed a breakthrough 2021 by reaching three semi-finals (two of which came on clay).
He even picked up a semi-final at ATP 500 level, beating Diego Schwartzman en route to the final four in Acapulco. But it was his performance at last year’s French Open that truly heralded the arrival of a new talent.
He became only the 6th player since 2000 to reach the French Open 4th round on debut. Musetti is clearly a huge talent, hitting the ball with plenty of topspin on both sides. But younger players do tend to have issues with fluctuating form.
He came into Hamburg on a run of four consecutive defeats (dating back to his title success at a Challenger event in Forli). But he has overcome a tough draw to progress to the quarterfinal stage this week.
He endured a marathon opening match against Dusan Ljaovic before a far more economical victory against Emil Ruusuvuori.
The Verdict: Musetti to win at 6/5- This will be first ever meeting between these two. It’s going to start looking like I have an agenda against Davidovich Fokina. He will be the favourite here.
But the mercurial Spaniard often follows up an impressive display with an absolute stinker. And Musetti seems to have settled into a wonderful rhythm this week.
I think Musetti is a real star of the future and he needs to start winning these matches to solidify that.
