We take a look at the two intriguing Los Cabos Open clashes between Danil Medvedev vs Miomir Kecmanovic as well as Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Cameron Norrie.
2022 ATP Tour
ATP 250 Series
Los Cabos Open
Cabo Sports Complex, Los Cabos, Mexico (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Semi-final Preview- 6th August
Danil Medvedev (1) (1/5) vs Miomir Kecmanovic (4) (7/2)
Danil Medvedev is in a rather weird position. One would think that a reigning World No.1 would be full of confidence and at the top of their game. But his ranking is largely a result of Djokovic missing out on the opening salvos of the season. And he hasn’t won a title in 2022- despite reaching three finals.
Despite the number one ranking, Medvedev’s season is still defined by his remarkable implosion in the Aussie Open final.
He has looked pretty solid this week considering he hasn’t swung a racquet in anger since June. His victory over Ricardo Berankis took his season win-loss ratio to a respectable- if unremarkable- 29-10.
This is his first hardcourt tournament since his quarterfinal exit at the Miami Open in March. The defending US Open champion is a hardcourt maestro who combines savage power with remarkable dexterity on court. But he does have the tendency to let his temperament control him when things go awry.
Miomir Kecmanovic may lack the variety of Medvedev from the back of the court. But he is undoubtedly one of the few guys who can match the Russian in pure hitting power.
The Serb is currently enjoying the best season of his career, reaching seven quarterfinals including this week. He has probably been slightly unfortunate not to have gone all the way on some occasions.
I bring this up all the time, but his quarterfinal defeat to Carlos Alcaraz Garfia in Miami was my match of the season. I knew that both of those guys were capable of beating anyone on their day. The Serb had back-to-back ‘Sunshine Double’ quarterfinals to go with his 4th round run at the Aussie Open.
He has been two or three wins away from a truly breath-taking season. This will be just his 2nd semi-final of the year following his showing in Munich. He was sensational in his quarterfinal win over last year’s beaten finalist Brandon Nakashima, showcasing his amazing growth as a hardcourt player.
Verdict: Medvedev to win in three at 26/10- This will be their 2nd meeting, with Medvedev absolutely crushing Kecmanovic at this year’s French Open.
The Serb will be concerned by that result when you consider that clay is by far Medvedev’s weakest arena. But I think this is going to be an extremely tight match. Kecmanovic is in really good form and he doesn’t mind long, self-indulgent rallies.
I expect this to be a back-and-forth affair, with the Russian growing stronger in the latter stages.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (2) vs Cameron Norrie (3)
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime. Everything started spectacularly.
He steered Canada to an ATP Cup triumph before continuing his recent Grand Slam growth with a quarterfinal run at the Aussie Open. He reached back-to-back finals in Rotterdam and Marseille, winning his maiden ATP title at the former (and crucially breaking his finals losing streak in the process). But things have just been slightly frustrating since then.
A slew of quarterfinals during the clay-court season was disappointing when you consider his collaboration with Toni Nadal. And he came into this tournament off the back of three consecutive defeats. That first-round defeat to Cressey at Wimbledon was a devastating blow after he performed so admirably at SW19 last year. He has been made to work hard on debut in Los Cabos, overcoming hometown hero Alex Hernandez and veteran American Steve Johnson in two tight, straight-sets victories.
British No.1 Cameron Norrie has surprised me this year. He broke through last year in incredible fashion, winning two titles and reaching a staggering six ATP finals.
That was all punctuated by a herculean victory at Indian Wells. Truth be told, I had my doubts as to his staying power. I thought that he was mostly punching above his weight and he may be found out this year. He has no explosive weapons, relying on incredible court coverage and sheer tenacity.
But he has proven me wrong with another solid campaign: his quarterfinal victory against Radu Albot took his win-loss record for the year to 34-16 (busy boy). He won titles at Delray Beach and Lyon and made it all the way to the Acapulco showpiece match.
But it was his semi-final run at Wimbledon that confirmed his status as one of the elite players in world tennis. He is the defending champion here and he is going to take some beating this week.
Verdict: Auger Aliassime to win in three sets- Auger-Aliassime has absolutely dominated the head-to-head matchup between these guys.
He leads the rivalry 4-0, picking up two straight-sets victories already this season. But he can’t underestimate Norrie- especially at this venue. Norrie is a nuggety customer whose groundstrokes have certainly accumulated slightly more venom this year.
But I still think the Canadian has the edge if he plays his best tennis. He just has more firepower and that should do the job on this surface. But I expect a ferocious fight from the Brit.
