We take a look at the two intriguing Nordea Open clashes between Dominic Thiem vs Roberto Bautista Agut as well as Sebastian Baez and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
2022 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Nordea Open
Bastad Tennis Stadium (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 16 Matches- 14th July
Dominic Thiem vs Roberto Bautista Agut
The downfall of Dominic Thiem has been one of the more depressing narratives in men’s tennis. The Austrian was a natural successor to the ‘Big Three’. Unlike players such as Zverev and Tsitsipas, Thiem actually possesses a Grand Slam title (he won the 2020 US Open title).
But clay was his natural playground and he was earmarked as the potential successor to Nadal’s utter Roland Garros dominance (he lost consecutive Roland Garros finals to Nadal in 2018 and 2019). But Thiem has suffered a succession of debilitating injuries.
A major knee injury was followed by the wrist injury that precipitated his 9-month hiatus from professional tennis. But it has been an utter grind for Thiem since returning to the tour. He actually lost his first six consecutive tour level matches coming into this year’s Nordea Open.
But he finally returned to winning ways, coming from a set down to battle past the baseline-hugging Emil Ruusvouri. It was his first tour level victory in 14 months. I think the thing that will have emboldened him was the girt he had to show.
He saved eight of 12 break points in the match and came through a nervy 3rd set tiebreak. Perhaps that was the match he needed to reignite his fortunes.
34-year-old Roberto Bautista Agut remains one of the hardest-working players on the entire tour. He has remained in the world’s top 20 despite losing a little bit of lustre over the last two years. That’s all down to his unparalleled work ethic and ability to consistently appear in finals.
He has reached two finals this season (winning in Qatar and losing in Mallorca). But as I have said many times, Bautista Agut isn’t your prototypical Spanish clay-court god. He is actually far more comfortable on harder surfaces. Only two of his 20 ATP Finals have come on clay (the last of which was way back in 2018).
The question remains: can clay-court specialist Dominic Thiem defy current form and return to some form of dominance on this surface?
The Verdict: Thiem to win in three- Bautista Agut actually holds a commanding 4-1 head-to-head record against Austrian Thiem.
The last of those meetings came in Doha last year. They are yet to meet on clay. This is an interesting one. Obviously, the smart money is on Bautista Agut. He is an arch competitor who won’t have any sympathy for Thiem’s recent predicaments.
But there’s a part of me that thinks Thiem could use that Ruusvuori result as a springboard. The performance showed real character and could be the kickstart that Thiem needed.
Sebastian Baez (8) vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
This is a tailormade tournament for 21-year-old Argentine Sebastian Baez. It has been a meteoric rise for Baez over the last 18 months.
He broke new ground on the Challenger Tour last year, reaching nine finals and winning six titles (all of those finals coming on clay). And he has taken like a duck to water on the tour proper, surging to a career-high ranking of 34 at the time of writing.
The nuggety clay-court pit-bull has already reached two ATP Tour finals this year. He lost his first final at the Chile Open but picked up his maiden title in Estoril.
Baez easily dismantled Fabio Fognini in his opening match, showcasing his hitting power against a hardened clay-court pro. As I said, this event looks primed for a Baez surge.
If Baez represents growing consistency, Davidovich Fokina represents complete anarchy. The 23-year-old Spaniard veers wildly from brilliance to bang-average.
His first-round victory over Joao Sousa took his year-to-date record to 16-17. But in amongst all the chaos, Davidovich Fokina managed to reach his maiden ATP Final at the Monte-Carlo Masters.
He shocked the world by beating Novak Djokovic en route to the final. He became the first man since Filip Krajinovic at the 2017 Paris Masters to reach his maiden ATP final at a Masters 1000 final. But he has been impossibly frustrating since then.
A master at the drop shot, Davidovich Fokina needs to work at constructing points more sensibly. Those drop shots have become slightly too telegraphed and he needs to just play some boring tennis from time to time.
The Verdict: Baez to win in straight sets- This will be the first career meeting between these two. It should make for an exciting encounter between two young, energetic professionals.
But ultimately, I think Baez’s consistency from the back of the courts will overwhelm the temperamental Spaniard.
