Damien Kayat previews Aslan Karatsev vs Zhang Zhizhen and Aryna Sabaleka vs Maria Sakkari in the Selected quarterfinal and semi-final matches of the Madrid Open on 4 May 2023.
2023 WTA 1000/ ATP 1000 Tour
Madrid Open
La Caja Magica (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Quarterfinal and Semi-finals
Matches- 4 May
Aslan Karatsev 5/10 | Zhang Zhizhen 31/20
I think it’s fair to say that nobody could have possibly envisaged this quarterfinal. 29-year-old Russian Aslan Karatsev has endured a remarkable fall from grace over the past 18 months or so.
He was the ‘Cinderella Man’ of 2021, making it to the semi-finals of the Aussie Open whilst also winning titles in Dubai and Russia. He won another title in Sydney last year and seemed ready for another solid season on tour. But his form deserted him and match-fixing allegations emerged towards the end of the year. Those allegations never helped his form and he has been pretty much anonymous this season. Sure, he started the year with a decent semi-final run at the Maharashtra Open. But his form has fallen off a cliff since then. And few would have seen him rediscovering his best form on clay (despite his 2021 title in Belgrade).
He is an aggressive type player who likes to play short, concise points. But his straight-sets win over compatriot Danil Medvedev could be the catalyst to something special this week. Sure, firebrand Medvedev contributed to his own downfall with his petulance. But it didn’t change the fact that Karatsev actually dominated many extended rallies.
Zhang Zhizhen completes this shock quarterfinal match, making history by becoming the first Chinese man to reach a Masters 1000 quarterfinal. It’s pretty crazy when you consider his opening win against Austrian qualifier Jurij Rodionov marked his first career win at a Masters 1000 event. And boy, he has done it the hard way.
His last three matches have all gone to 3rd set tiebreakers. He saw off Denis Shapovlaov and Cameron Norrie before outlasting American Taylor Fritz in an absolutely epic round of 16 match. He saved three match-points against the American and will feel like he’s free-rolling at this point.
Honestly, Zhizhen’s performance this week could go down as an all-timer. He is currently ranked 99th in the world and has never gone beyond the 1st round of a Slam. Furthermore, he has really been in pretty dismal form throughout the year. I really don’t know where this performance has come from.
The Verdict: Karatsev to win in straight sets
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Zhizhen said that Karatsev thrashed him 6-0 in a practice match before. I don’t know if that was just him being modest, but I can see the Russian running out an easy winner here. The physical and emotional toll of all these matches must have some impact on Zhizhen. He has shown against Shapovalov and Fritz that he can absorb and counterpunch fluidly.
But I think Karatsev is playing very direct tennis and won’t engage the Chinese in elaborate rallies. The Russian saved some energy against Medvedev and I can see him blitzing Zhizhen.
Aryna Sabaleka 36/100 | Maria Sakkari 2/1
This promises to be a blockbuster clash between two powerhouses of the women’s game. I thought that we about to see an old-fashioned Sabalenka implosion in her quarterfinal match against Sherif. She lost the first set and continued to commit unforced errors throughout the match (she would go on to commit 37 in total). But she ultimately had too much firepower for the Egyptian and will be looking to reach her 5th final of the year.
Sabalenka obviously started the season in glorious fashion, winning in Adelaide prior to that seismic Aussie Open victory. She has lost finals at Indian Wells and Stuttgart and she will be keen to add another title to her name. Her performance this week is just another reminder of how far she has come as a clay-court player. The 2021 Madrid Open champ will be looking to reach her 2nd Madrid final just a week after making it back-to-back Stuttgart finals. She has learnt how to construct points more intelligently and doesn’t rush to land the killer blow as she did in the past.
I really thought Maria Sakkari had an uphill task against the unfancied Irina Camelina-Begu last time out (so much so that I backed the Romanian to pull off the upset). And it never started well for Sakkari, with Camelia-Begu winning the first set. But the Greek stormed back to win in three, reaching her 8th career WTA 1000 semi-final in the process. It marked her 2nd WTA 1000 semifinal this year after reaching the final four at Indian Wells. It also happens to be the first time in her career that she has reached the final four in Madrid.
The win improved her roller-coaster 2023 record to 19-8. She is still looking for her first final in a year that has been littered with either semi-final runs or first-round defeats. But she always seems to save her best tennis for these WTA 1000 events. Could she reach her 3rd WTA 1000 final (and first on clay) this week?
The Verdict: Sakkari to win in three
Sabalenka leads their intense rivalry 5-3. The Greek had actually done well to claw the Belarusian back after Sabalenka raced into a 4-1 career lead. But Sabalenka absolutely destroyed the Greek in this year’s Indian Wells semi-finals. Can the Greek overcome that psychological blow?
This is going to be a match that will likely feature plenty of errors, with both players looking to force the issue. Neither player was overly convincing last time out. But I just feel that Sakkari will be the more motivated this week. Also, Sabalenka’s serving demons have started to creep back into play during the last few tournaments.
