Damien Kayat previews the NextGen ATP Finals Selected round-robin matches between Lorenzo Musetti and Sebastian Baez as well as Hugo Gaston and Sebastian Korda.
2021 ATP Tour
NextGen ATP Finals
PalaLido, Milan, Italy (Hard Indoors)
Selected Round Robin matches- 9th November
This will be the 4th edition of the NextGen ATP Finals. Last year’s edition was cancelled due to the pandemic. But just look at the two previous winners (Jannik Sinner and Stefanos Tsitsipas). This is a potential stepping stone for real, sustained success. It’s all a bit weird this week, with best of five-set matches that require you to reach 4 games. It’s an odd scoring system that brings a greater variety of results.
Lorenzo Musetti (7/20) vs Sebastian Baez (43/20)
It will be interesting to see how Musetti performs in front of his home crowd this week. This is high time for Italian tennis. The likes of Berrettini and Sinner have really given the country hope of collecting a future Grand Slam. Current world number 58 Lorenzo Musetti is right in the mix of that revival. The 19-year-old is still struggling to meet the expectations he set for himself at this year’s French Open. He won two tiebreaks against eventual champion Novak Djokovic, returning a 4-0 down in the 5th set due to injury. But he hasn’t been able to replicate that form throughout the season. Perhaps some home comfort will help the Italian rediscover his best tennis. He is the only player in this year’s event that was scheduled to play in last year’s cancelled NextGen event. He has shown some hardcourt potential, reaching the semi-finals of this year’s Mexican Open. That included victories over both Grigor Dimitrov and Diego Schwartzman.
20-year-old Sebastian Baez will certainly go into this match as the underdog. He is only playing this week due to the late withdrawal of Jenson Brooksby (which is a pity because I find Brooksby quite captivating). Baez has been a dominant force in Challenger Tour tennis. Though that is a far lower level than the ATP Tour proper: winning is winning. He has won five Challenger events this year, reaching a career-high ranking of 111 after reaching his 4th consecutive Challenger Tour final. The problem is this: almost all of his Challenger success has come on clay surfaces. Factor that in to the support that Musetti will receive this week and Baez should have an uphill battle in this match.
The Verdict: Musetti to win in straight set at 16/10- I just think that this event is almost custom-fitted for Musetti this week. He will enjoy fanatical home support and meets a player almost exclusively versed in clay-court tennis. He should have too much power for Baez.
Hugo Gaston (7/4) vs Sebastian Korda (44/100)
This is a clash between two players who ultimately fell victim to Danil Medvedev in Paris last week. Hugo Gaston looks set to take over Gael Monfils’ mantle as the premier French tennis player. The 21-year-old has just moved to a career-high ranking of 67 after a glorious run to the quarterfinals in Paris. He fed off the energy of a boisterous home crowd and showed his capabilities on indoor hardcourts. He has made excellent progress over the past two years. He really rose to prominence with an excellent 4th round run at last year’s French Open. That included a victory against 2015 Roland Garros champion Stan Wawrinka. He also reached his maiden ATP Final earlier this year at the Swiss Open. Last week he almost took a set off the visibly rattled Danil Medvedev. Can Gaston make yet another statement with solid season-ending performance?
It feels like I have been talking about Seb Korda quite a lot recently. Korda also lost to Medvedev at Paris. But the gangly American actually managed to take a set off the excellent Russian last week. Despite only reaching the last 16, his performance in Paris was probably one of the most impressive showings from Korda all season. He beat the in-form duo of Aslan Karatsev and Marin Cilic in brilliant fashion. The current world number 39 will bring some decent form into his debut NextGen Finals. It had been a tough North American swing for the man born of American sporting royalty. He looked quite some distance away from the player who own the Emilia-Romagna Open earlier this year.
The Verdict: Korda to win in four sets at 11/4- Ultimately, I have opted for a straightforward win for the American. I just think that we saw some of Korda’s most promising tennis in Paris. Those wins against Karatsev and Cilic will have really emboldened him.
