Damien Kayat previews the WTA Tour’s Miami Open matches featuring Paula Bados vs Jessica Pegula as well as Naomi Osaka vs Belinda Bencic.
2022 WTA Tour
WTA 1000
Miami Open
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinal and Semi-final- 30TH, 31st March
30th March- Quarterfinal
Paula Badosa (5) (59/100) vs Jessica Pegula (16) (13/10)
This should be an absolutely monstrous clash between two hard-hitting baseliners. Much like Iga Swiatek and Naomi Osaka, Paula Badosa will feel that she could step into the shoes of Ashleigh Barty and become a dominant force in woman’s tennis.
I know that’s a big claim considering she is yet to progress past the quarterfinal of a Slam. But outside of Barty and Swiatek, Badosa has been the most consistent player in women’s tennis over the last eight months. She won Indian Wells in glorious fashion last year, helping to propel her to the WTA Finals for the first time (where she showed no fear in reaching the semi-finals). This year has been slightly patchy.
She won in Sydney but then when 5-3 leading into this Sunshine Double. But her North American hardcourt form continues to impress. She reached the semi-finals last time out in Indian Wells and she is yet to drop a set in Miami. Granted, she has enjoyed a highly favourable draw this week. But her huge first-serve has made her essentially bulletproof thus far.
Jessica Pegula has been developing very nicely over the last year, operating nearly completely under the radar. The 28-year-old has always been a talent but has struggled with consistency. Her second-serve has always been a huge issue, resulting in her generally winning 30-40 % of those deliveries. This has been much improved this week (she has won closer to 60% of her 2nd deliveries throughout the week).
She seems to have found a bit more kick and she is less vulnerable at present. She thrashed both Sloane Stephens and Rybakina before Kalinina was forced to retire through injury in their round of 16 match. She seems reinvigorated, looking like the player who reached 2nd consecutive Aussie Open quarterfinal earlier this year. Pegula also had a very strong showing in WTA 1000 events in 2021, reaching the semi-final in Cincinnati along with quarterfinal showings in Dubai, Indian Wells and Rome.
Verdict: Badosa to win in three at 33/10- This will be the first career meeting between these two. I think this is going to be a tight affair. Badosa will obviously enter as the favourite following her recent exploits on North American surfaces. But home favourite Pegula has quietly evolved into one of the most improved players on the entire tour. Her 2nd serve is stronger and she can absorb Badosa’s power. More importantly, it looks like she actually believes she belongs at the top of the game (it’s just taken her over 11 years on tour to realize that). But I still think Badosa could see off Pegula over three sets, especially if her serve operates at it has been.
31st March- Semi-final
Naomi Osaka (1/2) vs Belinda Bencic (22) (6/4)
Wow. That was brutal. I have been quite adamant that Osaka could win it all in Miami this year. And I did predict the straight-sets win against Collins. But I didn’t expect it to become as sadistic as that. Osaka won 6-2, 6-1, winning a staggering 88% of her first-serve points in the entire match (it obviously helps when you serve 13 aces).
Collins essentially gave up in her last service game, chucking in an underarm serve against the Japanese superstar. That disappointed me somewhat. If Kyrgios did the same thing he would be ridiculed from pillar to post. In any event, Osaka just seems to be going from strength to strength this week.
The Barty retirement has stolen all the headlines and I think it has helped Osaka focus solely on her game. It doesn’t mean that she has been completely out of the headlines. She had a bit of a dig at Stefanos Tsitsipas after the Greek star claimed that women should play best of five-set Grand Slam matches if they demand equal pay. Come on Stefanos, 2014 wants its hot talking point back.
Belinda Bencic has enjoyed an extremely curious 12 months or so. She picked up the greatest prize of her career last year by winning Olympic Singles Gold for Switzerland (an achievement that compatriot Roger Federer is almost certain to never achieve).
But she hasn’t reached the semi-final of another competition since last year’s grass-court season. That incredibly included five consecutive quarterfinals between Cincinnati and Chicago. But in amongst that chaos, she got Olympic Gold and a US Open quarterfinal. 2022 has been pretty disappointing for the Swiss star. She came into this event with a 5-5 record for the year, losing her last two first-round matches.
Bencic has actually been Osaka-level devastating this week, not dropping a set and barely being ruffled at all. She has won 48 games and lost 17 thus far. But she has enjoyed a favourable draw and Osaka is completely different gravy to Gavrilova and Watson.
Verdict: Osaka to win in straight sets at 6/5- Remarkably, Bencic leads Osaka 4-1 in their career head-to-head meetings. She has won their last four matches (three of which came on hardcourts). Osaka tends to struggle against Bencic’s crafty style and off-pace shots. Bencic has the ability to pull Osaka into uncomfortable court positions. However, I think that there’s something a bit different about Osaka this year. There looks to be a fire in her belly and I think she could use this as an opportunity to rewrite the record books against Bencic. I just can’t get over how badly she humiliated the in-form Collins.
