Damien Kayat reckons Tony Finau could steal the show when a relatively watered-down field heads to the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta in Mexico for the Mexico Open.
2022/2023 US PGA Tour
Mexico Open
The Norman Signature Course, Vidanta Vallarta, Mexico
27th-30th April
Davies Riley and Nick Hardy were hardly the sexiest pairing going into last week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele were trading at crazy low prices to pick up the title.
But Riley and Hardy created history by winning the event in a staggering 30-under-par. Could that be a cautionary tale for this week’s action?
World No.1 and reigning Masters champion Jon Rahm is the overwhelming favorite to defend his Mexican Open title this week. But is there a risk of getting sucked into recency bias with Rahm in such devastating form?
The Mexico Open
The Mexico Open dates all the way back to 1944 as the country’s national golf championship. But it was only last year that it was elevated to full PGA Tour status (with Rahm breaking a near year-long trophy drought to capture the title).
The event returns to last year’s venue: the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta.
The Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta
Greg Norman is like a golfing equivalent of Candyman: you can’t escape his name at present. Situated close to the Pacific Ocean and Banderas Bay, this 2015 design is certainly a looker.
The Paspalum layout has plenty of water to defend it but it really needs the wind to keep the scoring down (this was certainly evident last year).
Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 that plays at 7,456 yards. So, it’s certainly not on the short side. And the wide, generous fairways certainly invite the bombers to let rip.
There’s also very little rough to contend with this week. Rahm actually likened the course to Kapalua (the host of the Sentry Tournament of Champions). And that tracks. Rahm won this year’s Sentry in devastating fashion.
You simply have to fancy the big hitters this week (and perhaps those with some Paspalum experience).
The Contenders
It’s almost impossible to argue the case against Rahm. The Spanish superstar just won his second Major Championship and already has four wins this season. He has 8 top 25’s in his 11 starts this season. But I just can’t get past that price of 33/10.
His presence this week actually opens up some real value towards the upper portions of the betting markets (3rd favorite Wyndham Clark is trading at 20/1).
Tony Finau hasn’t been able to match the form that saw him become one of the leading players on Tour towards the end of 2022. But he is a ball-striking phenom who should absolutely thrive on this layout.
Former US Open champ Gary Woodland has been flirting with contention of late and could be one to watch this week. Zurich champions Nick Hardy and Davis Riley obviously have some form under their belts. But it will be hard to expect them to go again after such a high last week.
Past Winners
2022: Jon Rahm (-17)
To Win Outright:
Jon Rahm 33/10 | Tony Finau 8/1 | Wyndham Clark 20/1 | Gary Woodland 33/1 | Patrick Rodgers 33/1
Value Bets
Nicolai Hojgaard- To Win 35/1 | To Place 15/2
This is always going to be a risky one. The Hojgaard twins haven’t fully convinced in their attempts to crack the PGA Tour. But Nicolai Hojgaard has shown signs of life this season. He has finishes of 2nd, T28 and 32 in his three starts this season. That 2nd place finish came at the wind-affected Corales Puntacana Championship. He has averaged 324 yards off the tee in those three events. Sure, that’s a small sample size. But that’s the type of distance that could serve him well this week.
Brandon Wu- To Win 80/1 | To Place 17/1
Last year, Brandon Wu absolutely rocketed up the leaderboard with a brilliant 8-under-par finish. This propelled him to a T2 finish alongside Finau and Kitayama. Sure, he doesn’t arrive in the greatest form. But he still picked up a T14 at the Honda Classic and a T19 at the Players Championship. Wu ranks 9th in total birdies and he has the ability to go low this week. He is 13-under-par in his last two rounds here and he could represent great value in the place markets.
The Man to Beat- Tony Finau- To Win 8/1 | To Place 7/4
Finau is having a really surreal year. He has gained strokes with his irons in all 10 starts. And he still one of the leading players in the world in Strokes Gained: Total. But his best finish this year was a T7 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions (which should correlate well with this course). He is an elite ball striker who just needs all the facets of his game to click and he will contend. And look at his wins last year. He won the 3M Open, Houston Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic. They were all events with similar fields to this. And he obviously finished in a tie for 2nd here (just a shot behind Rahmbo).
