The PGA Tour heads to Texas this week as TPC Crag Ranch hosts the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Damien Kayat shares all of his best bets and tips here!
2024 US PGA Tour
CJ Cup Byron Nelson
TPC Craig Ranch
2-5 May
That was just what the doctor ordered for Rory McIlroy. He won his 25th career PGA Tour title playing alongside Shane Lowry last week, claiming the Zurich Classic of New Orleans after a dramatic playoff.
The unfancied pair of Chad Ramey and Martin Trainer had made a surge earlier in the day but they were made to wait for three hours before the playoff with McIlroy and Lowry. And they looked rusty, allowing the Major winners to strike.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
This week, the tour moves from New Orleans to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. The event began life as the Dallas Open way back in 1944 and the inaugural tournament was won by the event’s namesake: Byron Nelson.
The tournament would have a host of elite winners, with the winner’s roll call a virtual who’s who of golfing history. Seriously, Sam Snead and Ben Hogan won the second and third editions of this event. Nicklaus, Watson and Couples took the title in the 70’s. Els, Mickelson and Woods took the title home in the 90’s.
The event faded in relevance, with many players growing disenchanted with the hugely unpopular TPC Four Seasons. It was moved to Trinity Forest in 2018 and then to current home TPC Craig Ranch three years ago.
There is plenty to play for this week, with many international players vying for President’s Cup consideration. Players will also be looking to force their way into the upcoming Wells Fargo Championship.
TPC Craig Ranch
Designed by Tom Weiskopf, TPC Craig Ranch was opened as recently as 2004. This is really a course that should help impart confidence ahead of next week’s Wells Fargo Championship. The course features minimal rough and generous Zoysiagrass fairways.
The Bentgrass greens only measure 11.5 on the stimp (you can’t have them playing too slick with the sudden Texas gusts). Rowlett Creek provides some natural defence but the pros have generally feasted on TPC Craig Ranch.
The course is fairly long but there’s not much to it. That’s probably the reason why most of the champions here have been outliers (Jason Day excluded). It’s harder to accurately pinpoint success on such a gettable course.
I think there’s an excellent chance we see a 59 this week. Players with distance will make the course considerably shorter and should make plenty of birdies. I would also look for players who can put themselves into great birdie positions with solid approach play.
The Contenders
Texas-native Jordan Spieth will head a fairly humdrum market this week. Spieth’s form has been a bit indifferent of late and he will be looking for some momentum ahead of the bigger tournaments coming up.
This has been an event in which South Koreans have thrived. Quite a few of them own houses in this part of the world and I wouldn’t be surprised if one is in the mix this week. K.H Lee was the third South Korean winner of this event in eight renewals when he won the first of his back-to-back titles in 2021.
Jason Day is back to defend his title while the likes of Will Zalatoris and Adam Scott leap off the betting boards.
Past Winners
2023: Jason Day (-23)
2022: KH Lee (-26)
2021: KH Lee (-25)
2020: event cancelled
2019: Sung-Hoon Kang (-23)
2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
To Win Outright:
Jordan Spieth 16/1 | Jason Day 18/1 | Si Woo Kim 20/1 | Adam Scott 22/1 | Will Zalatoris 22/1
Value Bets
Byeong-Hun An- To Win 30/1
I really like the look of An this week. He was excellent at Augusta, finishing in a tie for 16th for his best result in a major championship. He ranked second behind only Scottie Scheffler in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green. He ranks 17th in the field for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th for birdie or better percentage. He finished 14th here last season and his putting has been showing some signs of improvement. His strong tee-to-green game should suit a course with little in the way of daunting greenside challenges.
Seamus Power- To Win 60/1
Seamus Power has been lethal on approach of late, gaining shots in each of his five starts. He played in the final group at the Valspar Championship and he was tied for 12th at the RBC Heritage. Power also has course credentials, finishing in the top 20 here on three visits. He is a streaky player and I believe he could compete this week. He is a brilliant approach player and this course will suit him. Perhaps he will also be motivated by McIlroy and Lowry’s success and we could have three Irish winners in two weeks!
The Man to Beat- Min Woo Lee- To Win 28/1
Min Woo Lee has slightly disappointed on this year’s PGA Tour, competing only once at the Cognizant Classic (he finished in a tie for second). But he has made the cut in seven of his first eight events. This week features a much poorer field than usual and his driving stats are formidable. The Aussie ranks second on the tour for total driving. That sort of firepower should put him in prime position to make a slew of birds.
