Daniil Medvedev faces off against Tommy Paul and Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on Alex de Minaur in the Ro16 of the Italian Open. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 14 May
Daniil Medvedev 43/100 | Tommy Paul 7/4
That was certainly not how Daniil Medvedev would have envisaged his round of 32 match with Medjedovic. The Russian struggled for rhythm throughout the match and barely scraped by in three arduous sets.
Still, the defending champion showed his trademark tenacity and has now improved to an eight-match winning streak in Rome. The Russian is yet to win this year but he has nonetheless compiled a formidable 24-6 record for the season, finishing runner-up at the Aussie Open and Indian Wells Masters.
He has made vast improvements on clay in recent seasons and looked solid in Madrid before withdrawing from the quarter-finals due to a minor injury. Can he make it nine successive Rome wins against versatile American Tommy Paul?
Tommy Paul doesn’t fall into the stereotypical American mould of massive first-strike tennis. He is a control player who possesses plenty of variety, utilising slice and opting to come to the net when necessary.
I have been surprised that he hasn’t made a bigger impression on clay throughout his tour-level career (especially considering the fact that he won the French Open junior title). He has won clay-court events at Future and Challenger level but he is yet to compete in a tour-level clay-court final.
He has enjoyed a solid season, winning in Dallas and finished runner-up at the Delray Beach event. But the highlight of his year came at Indian Wells, where he roared into the semi-finals in conditions which are comparable to clay.
He didn’t enjoy the greatest start to his clay-court campaign but he has looked impressive in Rome, not dropping a set in his matches against Koepfer and Karatsev.
Verdict: Medvedev to win in three 26/10
Medvedev has won all three of their previous meetings. He beat Paul in four sets at the 2021 French Open and conquered the American in a keenly fought Indian Wells semifinal earlier this season.
I’m almost tempted to go for the Paul upset. He has looked decisive on these surfaces while Medvedev has struggled for consistency. I think Paul has the type of game that can take Medvedev out of his comfort zone, forcing him to come forward and alter his position on the baseline.
Still, the coward in me has to acknowledge Medvedev’s staying power and a tight three-set win for the Russian is the most adventurous I can get.
Stefanos Tsitsipas 7/20| Alex de Minaur 43/20
That’s how you bounce back from an underwhelming performance. Monte-Carlo champ Stefanos Tsitsipas was in absolutely irrepressible form against Cameron Norrie, hitting 27 winners and committing just nine errors in a textbook display of clay-court dominance.
It was a vast improvement on his opening display, where he needed to come back from a set down- and keep his emotions in check- against grinder Struff. He looked visibly shaken against Struff, smashing his racquet violently after just one game in very uncharacteristic scenes for the Greek.
Many have speculated that they may be linked to his recent split from Paula Badosa (I will let you be the judge). But that performance against Norrie was elite and he has looked immense on clay this season, winning his third Monte Carlo title before finishing runner-up in Barcelona.
He had a minor blip in Madrid but this is an arena where he has been consistently excellent, reaching the semi-final stage in three of the last five seasons (finishing runner-up in 2022). The former Roland Garros runner-up loves these slow court conditions, using his heavy topspin and depth of shot to keep opponents pegged back.
I think it’s fair to say that Alex de Minaur isn’t the biggest fan of clay. Yet to reach a clay-court final in his ATP career, the counterpuncher finds it hard to generate consistent power on his least favourite surface.
Having said all that, the ‘Speed Demon’ is arguably the quickest player on tour and these conditions allow him to grind opponents down. The weather has been quite hot in Rome, quickening up the surfaces to some extent and allowing him to hit more winners from defensive positions.
He just produced a stellar clay-court performance, coming back from a set down to defeat surprise Madrid finalist Auger-Aliassime. He hit 25 winners to just nine unforced errors in a brilliant display of counterpunching tennis.
The win over the Canadian improved his 2024 record to 25-9 (highlighted by victory at the ATP 500 event in Acapulco).
Verdict: Tsitsipas to win in straight sets 94/100
The Greek has utterly dominated their head-to-head rivalry, leading the Aussie 12-2 on all circuits. The Greek had actually won eleven straight matches before Di Minaur’s win in Acapulco earlier this season.
The Aussie has evolved into a more dynamic player over the past two years but Tsitsipas looks to be one of the most in-form clay-court players out there at present.
