We’re into the round of 64 at the ATP’s Italian Open. Damien Kayat previews Rafa Nadal v Hubert Hurkacz and Daniil Medvedev v Jack Draper.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Italian Open
Foro Italico
Selected Ro32 Matches – 11 May 2024
Rafa Nadal 5/4 | Hubert Hurkacz 61/100
I was a major Federer fan and that automatically turned Nadal into a boogeyman figure for me. But those feelings gave way to grim admiration over time and I genuinely am going to miss the Spanish bulldog when he hangs up his racquet.
He only just returned to action after a severe hip issue caused him to miss most of the 2023 season. This season could very well be his last dance and he needed every shred of determination to overcome Zizou Bergs in his opener.
The 37-year-old looked cumbersome out there and needed to battle back from a set down. But Nadal did grow in confidence as the match progressed, obviously buoyed by the expectant Rome crowd. Nadal has absolutely dominated this event over the years, winning 11 of his 36 Masters titles on these surfaces.
He thrived in these slow conditions, using his supreme athleticism to track down everything and his brutal topspin to keep opponents pegged back. He clearly isn’t moving at optimal levels and this presents a huge opportunity for someone to be his final Rome conqueror.
Seventh seed Hubert Hurkacz has had a rollercoaster of a campaign. Many expected him to really kick on after his captured his second career Masters 1000 title in Shanghai last year. But this has turned into a bit of a ‘nearly’ season for the Pole (who currently sits at 23-10 for the year).
He reached the quarter-finals of the Aussie Open but has largely underwhelmed on the quicker surfaces. It surprisingly took a switch to clay for him to finally reach a final this year. The Pole won his maiden ATP clay-court title in Estoril and he has accumulated a decent 8-2 record on clay this season.
The big-serving Hurkacz tends to have a flatball trajectory and that isn’t conducive to long-term success on clay. But the sheer ferocity of his serve and forehand gives him a chance in any conditions. But he has struggled on these notoriously slow surfaces, struggling to go beyond the third round here in five previous attempts.
Verdict: Hurkacz to win in three 29/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. I was really tempted to back Nadal given his affinity for these surfaces. But his win against Bergs probably gave us more questions than answers.
He looks knackered out there and Hurkacz has improved just enough on clay to be able to take down the weary Spaniard. Having said that, it will not be a stroll in the park for the Pole.
Daniil Medvedev 39/100 | Jack Draper 39/20
Former US Open champion Daniil Medvedev no longer fears clay-court tennis. The hardcourt specialist was never a fan of the sticky stuff, often skipping major clay-court events in preparation for the latter parts of the campaign.
But he changed his mental approach to the clay and it paid rich dividends last season, as the surly Russian won his maiden clay-court title in this event. I find it quite ironic that this event- with its ultra-slow surfaces- would be the one where he made his breakthrough.
That’s testament to his improved frame of mind on clay. Medvedev has compiled a decent 22-6 record for the year, reaching the finals at the Aussie Open and Indian Wells Masters. He looked decent in Madrid, reaching the quarter-final before withdrawing due to a minor leg injury. He says that he feels strong this week and he will be motivated to prove that last year was no fluke.
Jack Draper looked really impressive in his opener, seeing off the enigmatic Borna Coric in straight sets 7-5, 6-1. He remained patient in a tough first set but really overwhelmed the Croat in the second. Could we finally be seeing the start of an injury-free Jack Draper?
He started the year in excellent fashion by reaching the final in Adelaide. But he was forced to withdraw from his Acapulco semi-final with de Minaur due to an unspecified illness. And he hasn’t really looked back to his best since.
Having said that, he did suffer narrow defeats to quality players in Monte-Carlo and Munich (Hurkacz and Frit respectively). Draper has long been touted as a generational talent and he could do with a victory over one of the top-bracket players (which Medvedev certainly is).
Verdict: Medvedev to win in straight sets 1/1
This will actually be the first meeting between these two. Draper’s awkward lefty delivery may give Medvedev some issues (he could have acid flashbacks to that Aussie Open final capitulation against Nadal).
But I ultimately think that Medvedev will have too much nuance for Draper. He is fast becoming a cunning clay-court operator and he could actually mount a concerted French Open charge this season.
