PREVIEW: 2024 ATP Tour – Wimbledon Championships – Selected Quarter-finals

2024 ATP Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
Selected Quarter-finals – 9 July

Carlos Alcaraz 24/100 | Tommy Paul 29/10

This has the makings of a grass-court classic, with reigning Wimbledon champ Carlos Alcaraz locking horns with Queen’s conqueror Tommy Paul. Spanish sensation Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t looked at his imperious best this fortnight.

Tiafoe took him to five sets in their third-round duel while Ugo Humbert presented the Spaniard with plenty of problems in their fourth round tussle. In fact, Humbert created more break-point opportunities in their match, breaking the Spaniard in four consecutive games en route to winning the third set.

Alcaraz seemed to be facing similar problems to those he experienced against Draper (another lefty) in Queens. But Alcaraz retook the initiative in the 4th set to close out the match and reach his 9th career Grand Slam quarter-final (matching coach Juan Carlos Ferrero’s career tally).

He wasn’t at his most dominant on serve against Humbert, only winning 66% of his first-serve points. But he still turned it on when it mattered, hitting 45 winners to 33 unforced errors to take down the plucky Frenchman.

The Spaniard has now won 11 consecutive Wimbledon matches and few would bet against him reclaiming his title.

Paul raced against the fading light on Court Two to book his place in this year’s quarters, handily dispatching Spanish veteran Roberto Bautista Agut in straight sets.

It was the type of commanding grass-court performance that convinced many- myself included- to back him as a dark horse option for this year’s championships.

Paul has really solid power from the baseline but he also has an intuitive sense of when to take speed off the ball. And his willingness to come to the net gives him an added dimension against baseline huggers like Bautista Agut.

Paul is now 10-1 for the grass-court season, winning the biggest title of his career at Queens. While he may not possess the raw power of Alcaraz from the baseline, Paul is a canny grass-court operator who could definitely pose some real problems for the Spanish wunderkind.

The Verdict: Alcaraz to win in three sets 13/10

This has been quite a tasty rivalry, with both players deadlocked at two wins apiece. Alcaraz won their most recent meeting in Cincinnati last year, just edging out the American in three tight sets.

I just have a feeling that we might see a fully realized version of Alcaraz in this match. He has shown us glimpses of his best tennis this fortnight but we are yet to see one iconic outing.

Paul certainly has commendable variety but Alcaraz is the king of improvisation and I think he will outwit the American at his own game.

Jannik Sinner 23/100 | Daniil Medvedev 31/20

World No.1 Jannik Sinner just looks absolutely phenomenal at the moment. He took some time to warm up in this year’s championships, needing four sets in his opening two matches.

But he hasn’t dropped a set in his last two matches, becoming the first Italian man in history to reach three quarter-finals at SW19. He diffused Ben Shelton’s megawatt serve in their round of 16 encounter, keeping the American’s first-serve win percentage at a modest 70%.

He broke the American four times to improve his outrageous 2024 record to 42-3. Sinner is also on a nine-match winning streak after winning his maiden grass-court title in Halle. Sinner just looks to be growing in confidence with each passing game.

His serve looks impregnable while he remains a persistent threat on return. A beaten semi-finalist here last season, Sinner looks dead-set on righting some wrongs this year. Next up for him is the man he conquered to win his first Grand Slam title: Daniil Medvedev.

It’s crazy to think that serial winner Daniil Medvedev hasn’t won a title since Rome last year. But he progressed to this year’s quarter-finals courtesy of Grigor Dimitrov’s early retirement.

It marks the 10th time that he has progressed to the final eight of a slam (he owns a resounding 8-1 record in quarter-final matches). I think that the former US Open champion doesn’t get the credit he deserves. People tend to fixate on his epic Grand Slam capitulations.

And I definitely think he has shown mental weakness in big moments (notably throwing away a two-set lead against Sinner in this year’s Aussie Open final). But this is a man who has now competed in six Grand Slam finals! That level of consistency has to be admired.

And I also think he has made really big strides on grass over the past few years. He won his maiden grass-court final at the Mallorca Open in 2021 and he reached a further two grass-court finals in 2022.

He reached the semi-finals here last season and he will be looking to make it back-to-back SW19 semi-finals. I have always felt that he maintains too much of a defensive posture to prosper on these surfaces. But his flat groundstrokes do penetrate the court and his serve has been ticking away brilliantly this fortnight.

The Verdict: Sinner to win in straight sets 23/20

Medvedev leads the head-to-head 6-5 (but look a little closer). Sinner has won their last five consecutive matches, thrashing the Russian in their last meeting in Miami.

I just can’t really see any way that Medvedev can challenge Sinner on these surfaces. Sinner has been dominant on serve and his movement is superior to that of Medvedev.