The highly-anticipated 2024 Paris Olympics continues at Roland Garros as Alex de Minaur faces Jan-Lennard Struff and Lorenzo Musetti goes up against Gael Monfils. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 Olympic Games
Paris Olympics
Roland Garros
Selected Ro64 matches – 28 July
Alex de Minaur 96/100 | Jan-Lennard Struff 82/100
There will be a feeling of déjà vu in the air this week, as de Minaur takes on Struff in a rematch of their third round French Open tie (won by the Aussie in four sets).
It is really a minor miracle that ‘Speed Demon’ Alex de Minaur is even participating this week. A hip injury forced him to retire on the eve of his Wimbledon quarterfinal clash with Djokovic and he looked destined to miss out on his second consecutive Olympic Games (he contracted Covid prior to Tokyo).
But he has somehow pulled through and he will be looking to continue what has been a wonderful 2024 campaign. De Minaur has already reached three finals this year, winning titles in Mexico and Rosmalen. More crucially, he has really started to evolve into a more credible Grand Slam threat.
He reached the foutth round in Melbourne and would register back-to-back quarterfinals in Paris and London. He is no longer a purely defensive beast, improving his first serve and approaching the net more regularly.
Jan-Lennard Struff is really a nightmare early opponent this week. The 34-year-old German is enjoying an extremely profitable late-career surge. It all started with his 2023 Madrid heroics, where he became the first lucky loser in history to reach a Masters 1000 final.
He has been much more consistent this season, compiling a highly respectable 26-15 record. He won his maiden career title on the Munich clay and he made back-to-back Grand Slam 3rd round appearances at the French Open and Wimbledon.
He successfully reacquainted himself with clay last week, reaching the Gstaad semifinals to further underscore his growing dark horse status. Struff suffocates his opponents with his aggression, serving big and volleying with precision.
He also has a brilliant double-handed backhand that makes him hard to pin down. He will look to exploit any lingering physical issues that de Minaur brings to the table.
The Verdict: Struff to win in straight sets 18/10
These two are familiar foes, with de Minaur leading Struff 4-2 in the head-to-head stakes. The Aussie has beaten Struff twice this year and he will feel confident after that four-set victory in Paris. However, Struff did pick up the first set in Paris.
This will be a compressed three-set match and Struff’s aggressive approach could catch the Aussie flat-footed (especially as he recovers from that hip issue).
Lorenzo Musetti 39/100 | Gael Monfils 39/20
This is yet another rematch from this year’s French Open (Musetti downed Monfils in straight sets in their third-round match). I’m actually not sure when this first-round match will actually take place.
This has been a real boom period for Italian tennis, with Jannik Sinner becoming World No.1 and Jasmine Paoloni reaching back-to-back Grand Slam finals. Lorenzo Musetti’s recent success has just been the icing on the cake. Musetti is one of the most in-form players on the planet, holding a 14-3 record since the start of the Stuttgart Open.
His stunning variety was a breath of fresh air at Wimbledon and helped propel him to a first-ever Grand Slam semifinal. Musetti has enjoyed some notable clay-court success in the past, winning the Hamburg ATP 500 back in 2022.
He has twice reached the fourth round of the French Open and he should be feeling massively confident after his recent exploits (especially with the field thinning in recent days).
Could this be Gael Monfils’ swansong? It makes narrative sense for him to end his career playing in front of his adoring fans. I think he loves the game a bit too much to retire right now. And why would he? Sure, he’s probably not going to be breaking into the top 10 ever again.
But he still has that inalienable knack to pick up results out of nowhere. He won a title in Stockholm towards the end of last year and he has picked up some strong results this season, reaching the semifinals in Qatar and Mallorca.
I was impressed with the ultra-aggressive approach he adopted during the grass-court campaign and I think that will be his blueprint this week. His athleticism is legendary but he can’t just rely on that at his more advanced age. Monfils has enjoyed some really consistent success at the French Open, finishing in the 4th round or better on eight occasions (though the most recent came back in 2019).
The Verdict: Musetti to win in three 26/10
These two actually share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece. Musetti is clearly playing really dynamic tennis and he thrashed Monfils in this year’s French Open.
I just think this three-set format will give Monfils more of a chance. I also think that Musetti may arrive slightly jaded after his exertions in Croatia. Still, the fleet-footed Italian should be able to outlast the Frenchman in three.
