Stefanos Tsitsipas
The 27-year-old Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas has played considerably more clay-court tennis than his opponent this season, improving his 2024 clay stats to 22-5 with a straight-sets win against the bustling Sebastian Baez.
Tsitsipas was nowhere near his fluid best against the Argentine, only managing a 61% first-serve percentage throughout the entire match. He also served five double faults and he will need to tighten up as he goes up against the returning machine that is Djokovic.
However, Tsitsipas still managed to win an impressive 89% of the first-serve points he landed. Tsitsipas has really moved through the gears in this tournament, starting sluggishly against Bergs before back-to-back straight-sets wins over Evans and Baez.
But this is obviously going to be the defining moment of his entire Olympic campaign.
Tsitsipas has proven to be one of the most durable and consistent clay-court players over the past five years. The Greek has reached the quarterfinal stage or better in four of his last five French Open appearances (finishing runner-up in 2021).
He also delighted in the early stages of this year’s clay-court swing, winning a third Monte-Carlo title before a runner-up finish in Barcelona. He was soundly beaten by Alcaraz in the French Open quarterfinals, memorably clashing with the chair umpire over the Spaniard’s loud grunting.
And that’s the issue with the Greek: he often lets external factors filter into his on-court performance. He would already be a Grand Slam champion if he had the mental fortitude of a Casper Rudd. However, the Greek is going to need to overcome a considerable head-to-head disparity if he aims to reach this year’s semifinals.
The Verdict: Djokovic to win in three 26/10
Djokovic leads the head-to-head 11-2, claiming victory in their last ten consecutive contests. Yikes. Djokovic has never lost to Tsitsipas on clay, somehow overturning a two-set deficit to win the 2021 French Open final. I think that this three-set format should give the Greek a better shot.
He needs to get those first-serve stats close to 80% if he wishes to trouble the Serb. Djokovic came to the net with brilliant effect against Koepfer and I can see him employing similar tactics here. I expect a really tight match but the Serb should prevail in three.