PREVIEW: 2024 Women’s US Open Outright Preview

While the US Open – originally known as the U.S. National Championships – dates back to 1881, the first edition of the women’s event would only take place in 1887.

Ellen Hansell beat Laura Knight in the inaugural final (with the ladies bedecked in ankle-length dresses, as if they had walked right out of the Great Gatsby).

Times have changed and the US Open has evolved into a rowdy celebration of tennis excess. It feels like a truly American antidote to the somewhat mannered proceedings at SW19.

The crazy atmosphere – coupled with the sweltering weather conditions – make this as much a test of mental strength as it is of tennis ability. The WTA Tour is currently on the verge of civil war, with players such as Swiatek and Pegula openly criticising the intense schedule.

The tour is going to extend the Cincinnati and Canadian Opens into two-week events next season. Some think this is a step too far in what is already a punishing schedule.

They do risk burning players out ahead of what is probably the most physically taxing slam on the circuit.

The Contenders

This looks set to be an extremely open slam. In fact, the US Open has traditionally been the most unpredictable on the women’s roster, with nine different winners in the last ten seasons (Naomi Osaka being the only woman to win twice during that period).

World No.1 Iga Swiatek holds a mammoth advantage in the WTA rankings but she looks vulnerable coming into this year’s event.

On the flip side, Aryna Sabalenka is looking in ominous form as she looks to claim her third hardcourt slam.

Elena Rybakina has won multiple titles this season and probably should have secured a second Grand Slam title by now.

Defending champion Coco Gauff has been going through a proper rough patch in recent weeks and it will be interesting to see how she responds to the unique pressure of being a defending champion.

Could a champion emerge from outside the so-called ‘Big Four’? Jessica Pegula has been looking dynamite of late while Barbora Krejcikova is fresh off of winning her second Grand Slam title at SW19.

Past Champions

• 2023: Coco Gauff bt Aryna Sabalenka (2-6, 6-3, 6-2)
• 2022: Iga Swiatek bt Ons Jabeur (6-2, 7-6)
• 2021: Emma Radacanu bt Leylah Fernandez (6-4, 6-3)
• 2020: Naomi Osaka bt Victoria Azarenka (1-6, 6-3, 6-3)
• 2019: Bianca Andreescu bt Serena Williams (6-3, 7-5)
• 2018: Naomi Osaka bt Serena Williams (6-2, 6-4)

North American hardcourt precursors this season

• Washington Open: Paula Badosa bt Marie Bouzkova (6-1, 4-6, 6-4)
• Canadia Open: Jessica Pegula bt Amanda Anisimova (6-3, 2-6, 6-1)
• Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka bt Jessica Pegula (6-3, 7-5)
• Tennis in the Land Cleveland and Monterrey Open: in progress

The Big Four: Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek has been World No.1 for more than 115 of the last 125 weeks and also happened to win the title here in 2022. She has also won an incredible five titles this year.

But I just don’t think she has it in her to lift this year’s US Open crown. You can almost feel the weight of expectation when she goes into non-French Open Grand Slam events (of which she has only won one).

That Olympic final defeat to Qinwen Zheng left some major scar tissue and may give others some confidence going forward at Roland Garros.

The Pole looked jaded in her semifinal loss to Sabalenka in Cincinnati, unable to match the pure ball-striking power of the Belarusian. I could actually foresee a first-week exit for the Pole. Maybe she will prove me wrong.

Aryna Sabalenka

Which leads me to my personal favourite for this year’s title: Aryna Sabalenka. This has been a really chaotic year for the two-time Grand Slam champion.

She opened the year in fantastic style, claiming her 2nd successive Aussie Open title. But personal tragedy was to follow, with her ex-boyfriend apparently committing suicide on the eve of the Indian Wells Masters.

She took some time to come back from that but she ultimately reached back-to-back WTA 1000 clay-court finals (losing to Swiatek on both occasions).

She had to withdraw from Wimbledon due to a shoulder injury but she has just got better and better since returning to action, culminating in her convincing victory in Cincinnati last week.

Sabalenka has competed in the last three Grand Slam hardcourt finals (losing to Gauff here last year). I just think that she is swinging freely and seems to be playing without any pressure.

Oft-criticized for flopping in slams in the early part of her career, Sabalenka has now reached the semifinal or better in eight of her last 11 slams!

Coco Gauff

This is going to be a real test of character for 20-year-old Coco Gauff. The American captured the imagination with her victory last season, showing real gumption to come from a set down against Sabalenka in the final.

And she has picked up some eye-catching results this season, reaching the semifinals of the Aussie and French Opens. But she has lost three of her last four competitive matches (serving a combined total of 17 double-faults in her early defeats in Toronto and Cincinnati).

She clearly has the ability to turn things around. But I just worry that she might lack the mental strength to carry the burden of being this year’s defending champion.

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina has reached five finals this season and won three titles. The former Wimbledon champ and Aussie Open runner-up has become the ultimate spoiler in recent seasons, popping up and dominating tournaments when no one was thinking of here.

She reached the semifinals at Wimbledon but she suffered a somewhat dispiriting Cincinnati first-round defeat to Fernandez last week. The silent assassin is really the wildcard in this newly minted ‘Big Four.

She strikes fear into the heart of her opponents with her thunderbolt serve and devastating groundstrokes. But she can suddenly capitulate in unforeseen ways and I would be hesitant to back her this year (especially when you consider that she has never progressed beyond the third round here).

Top Ten Contenders – Jessica Pegula and Qinwen Zheng

Let me briefly discuss the top-ten players I’m going to swerve this week. Jasmine Paolini has been the true breakout star on the WTA Tour this season, reaching back-to-back Grand Slam finals in Paris and London.

But I think this could be a bridge too far for the dynamic Italian. She has played plenty of tennis this season and comes into this tournament having suffered early exits at the Olympics and in Cincinnati.

And these surfaces may not suit her topspin-heavy approach (she has never gone beyond the 2nd round here).

Wimbledon champ Barbora Krejcikova has barely played since SW19 and she hasn’t gone beyond the 2nd round here in each of the last two seasons.

2021 US Open semifinalist Maria Sakkari has really struggled at Grand Slam level for some time now, failing to go beyond the 4th round of a slam in her last 11 events (which includes four first-round defeats).

Finally, I just don’t have enough confidence in Ostapenko to back her at this point in time. Her temperament seems to be getting worse with age and I can see her imploding this year.

Jessica Pegula

My first top-ten pick has to be Jessica Pegula (which is going to be a popular choice this year). Pegula has struggled to transfer her brilliant WTA 1000 form into the latter stages of Grand Slam events, losing all six of her Grand Slam quarterfinal matches.

This year she looks like a different beast altogether. Pegula was forced to withdraw from the French Open due to injury and she was eliminated in the 2nd round at Wimbledon.

But she has looked utterly devastating in the lead-in to this year’s US Open, winning her 3rd WTA 1000 in Toronto before a runner-up finish in Cincinnati last week. She seems to have upped the aggression factor and looks hellbent on finally making her mark at Grand Slam level.

Qinwen Zheng

My other pick was slightly less obvious but I have decided to stick my neck out for Qinwen Zheng. She stunned the entire tennis world with her runner-up finish at this year’s Aussie Open.

But she struggled in the immediate aftermath of that breakthrough, possibly battling with all the added media attention. But she has rediscovered her mojo in fine style in recent months, winning in Palermo before her stunning Olympic victory in Paris (where she broke Iga Swiatek’s 25-match Roland Garros winning streak).

Zheng reached the quarterfinals here last season and her performance in Melbourne showcased her ability to play in hot, chaotic conditions.

Mid-tier Choices – Danielle Collins and Diana Shnaider

Danielle Collins

I’m passing over some pretty juicy options in this category, ranging from Emma Navarro to Marta Kostyuk.

But my first option has to be Danielle Collins. Yes, I understand that she has never gone beyond the 4th round of this event. But this hasn’t been a regular old season for Collins.

The former Aussie Open finalist has played arguably the most consistent tennis of her career since announcing that she will retire at the end of this season. She won a maiden WTA 1000 event in Miami and she followed that up with victory at the Charleston Open.

She was beaten by Andreeva in Monterrey this week but this entire tournament will have a completely different feel. Wouldn’t this be the perfect swansong for the tenacious American?

The combative New York atmosphere dovetails perfectly with Collins’ abrasive personality and she will look to channel every bit of it this fortnight.

Diana Shnaider

2004 US Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova was a true ambassador for the headband look in her heyday. Fellow Russian Diana Shnaider has gone one better than her compatriot, bringing back the old-school bandana to the chagrin of many fashionistas.

But the bandana isn’t the only thing she has going on. The Russian lefty has been in absolutely unreal form in recent months, going 18-3 in her last five tournaments (Olympics excluded).

She absolutely decimated Coco Gauff en route to a semifinal finish in Toronto. She has an amazing forehand that could do plenty of damage this fortnight.

Longshot Options – Donna Vekic and Paula Badosa

Donna Vekic

Big-serving Croat Donna Vekic has – rather unbelievably- been eliminated here in the first round in each of her last three appearances. It boggles the mind that a player with her explosive talents has struggled so much on these surfaces.

That being said, she did reach the quarterfinals here back in 2019 and is enjoying arguably the greatest chapter of her entire career. She finished runner-up at Bad Homburg before a heartbreaking semifinal defeat at Wimbledon.

She then came agonizingly close to glory once again, ultimately settling for the silver medal at the Paris Olympics. She was unceremoniously dumped out of Cincinnati by Ashlyn Krueger but she has reserved her best tennis for the bigger stages this season.

Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa just feels like an absolute no-brainer. The Spanish starlet has endured a litany of injury issues these past few years, with a stress fracture of the back really threatening to bring her career to an untimely end.

But she has worked her socks off this campaign, suffering multiple early-season withdrawals to emerge as an in-form player going into this year’s US Open. She really started to purr with a 4th round run at Wimbledon. She then truly announced her comeback with victory at the Citi Open.

She is fresh off a terrific semifinal run in Cincinnati (where she pushed Pegula all the way in three tight sets).

She has never gone beyond the 2nd round here but her recent performances suggest a completely reinvigorated Badosa. There is a groundswell of support behind Badosa and she could ride that to a strong finish this year.