The US Open continues as Aryna Sabalenka faces Jessica Pegula in a highly-anticipated final. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 WTA Tour
US Open
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center
Selected Final
7 September 2024
Aryna Sabalenka 34/100 | Jessica Pegula 22/10
Aryna Sabalenka
There really is a feeling of inevitability about Aryna Sabalenka’s New York title push. She finished runner-up to Gauff last year, surrendering a one-set lead in what was an error-strewn final performance. But the Belarusian never let that result fester (which she has been guilty of doing in the past).
She picked herself up and won her 2nd Grand Slam title at this year’s Aussie Open. Off-court tragedy and injury affected the middle portion of her campaign (she was forced to withdraw from Wimbledon due to shoulder issues).
But the big-hitting Sabalenka has roared back to prominence during this North American hardcourt swing. She stormed to the title in Cincinnati and carried that form into Flushing Meadows, reaching a 2nd consecutive US Open final following her straight-sets win over Emma Navarro.
She has become the first woman to reach four consecutive hardcourt Grand Slam finals since Victoria Azarenka. Her victory over Navarro also extended her current winning streak to ten matches (in which she has only dropped one set).
Things panned out pretty much how I expected against Navarro. Sabalenka set the tone on her serve, firing down eight aces whilst winning 74% of her first-serve points. Sabalenka set the tempo of the match, hitting 34 winners to 34 unforced errors (Navarro hit 13 winners to 13 unforced errors in a far more reactive performance).
The Belarusian did wobble slightly towards the end of the second, allowing the American back in with some untimely double-faults. Navarro’s tenacity and counterpunching style was always capable of causing Sabalenka some headaches.
But the Belarusian ultimately had too much firepower from the back of the court and she held her nerve in the pivotal moments. Sabalenka has played with controlled aggression this entire tournament and I was really impressed with how she responded to Navarro’s mini resurgence in the second set.
Jessica Pegula
Buffalo native Jessica Pegula will be competing in her maiden Grand Slam final after a thrilling come-from-behind victory over Karolina Muchova. Pegula was absolutely blasted off the court in the first set, winning just 14 of 44 points as Muchova’s versatility reigned supreme.
Muchova was a point away from taking a 3-0 lead in the 2nd but Pegula dug in. The American was eventually able to establish her depth and pretty much-controlled proceedings for the remainder of the match. Previously 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, Pegula has played with real purpose this fortnight to exorcise some of those Grand Slam demons.
The win over Muchova meant that Pegula has now won 15 of her last 16 matches (losing only to Sabalenka in the Cincinnati final). She was forced to miss the French Open due to neck and wrist injuries but I think that time away from the court has helped reinvigorate the American.
She won in Toronto, finished runner-up in Cincinnati, and is now looking to take the next step to Grand Slam superstardom. She has always been tenacious but has sometimes lacked the aggression to take the next step at this level. She seems to have unlocked a more aggressive streak since returning from injury, though it will be interesting how she approaches this match (going toe-to-toe with Sabalenka is a risky proposition at best).
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets 82/100
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 5-2, winning five of their last six encounters in straight sets. Having said that, Pegula was able to roll through Sabalenka in last year’s WTA Finals (though those conditions in Cancun were a bit of a leveller).
I honestly can’t see any result other than a comfortable Sabalenka win. The Belarusian melted a bit last season, as the American crowd really got behind Gauff. Sabalenka handled the atmosphere well against Navarro and she just looks completely in control of her game at present.
